[Vision2020] GISS Response: Fwd: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website
Joe Campbell
philosopher.joe at gmail.com
Thu Jun 14 16:25:35 PDT 2012
Cool
On Jun 14, 2012, at 3:13 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
> I recently read an article featured on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies website, as referenced below:
> "The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for Tomorrow"
> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/
>
> I found what I thought to be an error in the article, and yesterday attempted to email the author for clarification. The email bounced, so I forwarded the email to scientist Gavin Schmidt, who also works at Goddard, to request he forward it to the author.
>
> Today I received a rapid response, both from Gavin Schmidt and the author in question, Vivian Gornitz; and the article in question now, as I just checked seconds ago on the GISS website, contains a correction regarding the error I noted.
>
> This rapid response and quick correction is a testament to the integrity of these scientists associated with Goddard, who could just as well ignore an email from someone such as I, of rather limited, how shall I phrase it, economic, political or cultural power, regardless of my intelligence or knowledge.
>
> I am forwarding this correspondence to Vision2020, given that though it was in some sense private, it concerns scientific information provided by government employees about a purely professional scientific question, of grave importance to everyone in the US, indeed, the entire planet, and contains no private personal information.
>
> Goddard, via Vivian Gornitz, acknowledged that the 10 meter sea level rise figure given in the article in question, from a total meltdown of Greenland and Antarctica, was incorrect. The article should have read that 10 meters of sea level rise would result from melt down of Greenland and West Antarctica only, not the entire Antarctic ice sheet, as it now does read.
> ----------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Vivien Gornitz <vmg1 at columbia.edu>
> Date: Wed, Jun 13, 2012 at 11:22 AM
> Subject: Re: Fwd: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website
> To: gavin.a.schmidt at nasa.gov
> Cc: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
> Gavin:
>
> Thanks for catching this error. It should have been Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (not the entire continent of Antarctica. At this point, no one is anticipating that the entire continent of Antarctica would melt in the foreseeable future). Greenland has a total of approximately 7 m sea level rise equivalent; the WAIS holds the sea level equivalent of 3 m of ice, so a total of ~10 m. Will have this corrected as soon as possible. Don't know what the problem with my e-mail is. I've been getting e-mail regularly at the above address.
>
> As to a plausible upper bound projected sea level rise of one meter, this estimated value applies to the icemelt component only; as clearly stated in the footnote, local (or relative) sea level rise could be much higher due to glacial isostatic adjustments, land subsidence, and changes in ocean currents, as well as the contribution from thermal expansion. In New York City, for example, our recent NPCC study projected a rise of ~41 to 55 inches (1.0--1.4 m) by the 2080s, for the so-called "rapid ice-melt scenario"; i.e., 1 m of icemelt plus the other factors contributing to sea level rise. (Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki,W. eds., 2010. Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response. Annals of the NY Acad. Sci. 1196). The big unknown is how rapidly the ice sheets will respond to the future rise in temperature. My personal hunch is that the initial response will be relatively slow initially and speed up much more in the future. However, the big danger is that as temperatures continue to rise and remain elevated well beyond 2100, the persistent warm conditions will weaken significant portions of the ice sheets to a point of fairly sudden and rapid decay, committing this planet to many meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the likelihood of having over ~1 m or so of icemelt by 2100 still appears fairly remote.
>
> Vivien
>
>
> At 07:53 PM 6/12/2012, you wrote:
>> Vivien - 2nd message I've got about this!
>>
>> gavin
>>
>> Begin forwarded message:
>>
>>> From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
>>> Date: June 12, 2012 7:44:24 PM EDT
>>> To: "Schmidt, Gavin A. (GISS-6110)" <gavin.a.schmidt at nasa.gov >
>>> Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website
>>>
>>> Gavin Schmidt:
>>>
>>> I attempted to send the following email to Vivian Gornitz, but the email bounced back, though I used the email address given in the contact info that was provided with her article in question.
>>>
>>> Can you forward this email to her?
>>>
>>> Ted
>>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>>> From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
>>> Date: Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 4:31 PM
>>> Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website
>>> To: vivien.m.gornitz at nasa.gov
>>> Hello Vivian Gornitz:
>>>
>>> I few comments in your recent GISS article (website at bottom) on sea level rise from climate change puzzle me. I must misunderstand something? Or is there a typo?
>>>
>>> "If melted completely, Greenland and Antarctic ice could raise sea level 10 m"
>>>
>>> If "10 m" is ten meters, that's only about 33 feet.
>>>
>>> For years various sources I have read indicate a total meltdown of Greenland and Antarctica would raise sea level above current level close to 200 feet. Consider this USGS source, indicating 80 meters of potential sea level rise from Greenland and Antarctica total meltdown, with the contribution from other sources a mere .45 meter:
>>> "Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a sea-level rise of only one-half meter."
>>> http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/
>>>
>>>
>>> Sea Level and Climate By Richard Z. Poore, Richard S. Williams, Jr., and Christopher Tracey
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -----------------------------------
>>> Also, this quote given my research is debatable:
>>>
>>> "A plausible upper bound estimate lies near 1 meter of ice melt by 2100..."
>>>
>>> If this means 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100 as a plausible upper bound, the following paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, by Rahmstorf et. al. who is one of world's leading experts on oceans and climate change, disagrees strongly. The upper bound given in this paper is 1.9 meters sea level rise, about 6 feet, by 2100, as you can read from the PNAS website here: "...the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100." http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full
>>> -------------------------------------
>>>
>>>
>>> The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for Tomorrow
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> By Vivien Gornitz — June 2012
>>>
>>> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/
>>> ------------------------------------
>>>
>>> Yours Sincerely,
>>>
>>> Ted Moffett
>>> Moscow, Idaho
>>> https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=ted+moffett+global+warming&oq=ted+moffett&aq=1K&aqi=g-K2&aql=&gs_l=serp.1.1.0i30l2.4502.11087.0.12871.62.27.0.2.2.15.352.6056.0j1j22j2.27.0...0.0.19RrY2O3Gas&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=2a0c451876a1d4b9&biw=1280&bih=916
>>
>> ==========
>>
>> Gavin Schmidt
>> NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
>> 2880 Broadway
>> New York, NY 10025
>> Tel: 212 678 5627
>> Email: Gavin.A.Schmidt at nasa.gov
>> URL: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt.html
>
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