[Vision2020] GISS Response: Fwd: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website

Thu Jun 14 15:13:26 PDT 2012

I recently read an article featured on the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies website, as referenced below:
"The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for Tomorrow"
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/

I found what I thought to be an error in the article, and yesterday
attempted to email the author for clarification.  The email bounced, so I
forwarded the email to scientist Gavin Schmidt, who also works at Goddard,
to request he forward it to the author.

Today I received a rapid response, both from Gavin Schmidt and the author
in question, Vivian Gornitz; and the article in question now, as I just
checked seconds ago on the GISS website, contains a correction regarding
the error I noted.

This rapid response and quick correction is a testament to the integrity of
these scientists associated with Goddard, who could just as well ignore an
email from someone such as I, of rather limited, how shall I phrase it,
economic, political or cultural power, regardless of my intelligence or
knowledge.

I am forwarding this correspondence to Vision2020, given that though it was
in some sense private, it concerns scientific information provided by
government employees about a purely professional scientific question, of
grave importance to everyone in the US, indeed, the entire planet, and
contains no private personal information.

Goddard, via Vivian Gornitz, acknowledged that the 10 meter sea level rise
figure given in the article in question, from a total meltdown of Greenland
and Antarctica, was incorrect.  The article should have read that 10 meters
of sea level rise would result from melt down of Greenland and West
Antarctica only, not the entire Antarctic ice sheet, as it now does read.
----------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Vivien Gornitz <vmg1 at columbia.edu>
Date: Wed, Jun 13, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Subject: Re: Fwd: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS
Website
To: gavin.a.schmidt at nasa.gov
Cc: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
Gavin:

Thanks for catching this error.  It should have been Greenland and the *West
Antarctic Ice Sheet* (not the entire continent of Antarctica. At this
point, no one is anticipating that the entire continent of Antarctica would
melt in the foreseeable future). Greenland has a total of approximately 7 m
sea level rise equivalent; the WAIS holds the sea level equivalent of 3 m
of ice, so a total of ~10 m.  Will have this corrected as soon as
possible.  Don't know what the problem with my e-mail is.  I've been
getting e-mail regularly at the above address.

As to a plausible upper bound projected sea level rise of one meter, this
estimated value applies to the icemelt component only; as clearly stated in
the footnote, local (or relative) sea level rise could be much higher due
to glacial isostatic adjustments, land subsidence, and changes in ocean
currents, as well as the contribution from thermal expansion.  In New York
City, for example, our recent NPCC study projected a rise of ~41 to 55
inches (1.0--1.4 m) by the 2080s, for the so-called "rapid ice-melt
scenario"; i.e., 1 m of icemelt plus the other factors contributing to sea
level rise. (Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki,W. eds., 2010. Climate Change
Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response. *Annals
of the NY Acad. Sci.* 1196).  The big unknown is how rapidly the ice sheets
will respond to the future rise in temperature.  My personal hunch is that
the initial response will be relatively slow initially and speed up much
more in the future.  However, the big danger is that as temperatures
continue to rise and remain elevated well beyond 2100,  the persistent warm
conditions will weaken significant portions of the ice sheets to a point of
fairly sudden and rapid decay, committing this planet to many meters of sea
level rise in the coming centuries.  However, the likelihood of having over
~1 m or so of icemelt by 2100 still appears fairly remote.

Vivien

At 07:53 PM 6/12/2012, you wrote:

Vivien - 2nd message I've got about this!

gavin

Begin forwarded message:

*From: *Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
*Date: *June 12, 2012 7:44:24 PM EDT
*To: *"Schmidt, Gavin A. (GISS-6110)" <gavin.a.schmidt at nasa.gov >
*Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website*

Gavin Schmidt:

I attempted to send the following email to Vivian Gornitz, but the email
bounced back, though I used the email address given in the contact info
that was provided with her article in question.

Can you forward this email to her?

Ted
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: *Ted Moffett* <starbliss at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 4:31 PM
Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website
To: vivien.m.gornitz at nasa.gov
Hello Vivian Gornitz:

I few comments in your recent GISS article (website at bottom) on sea level
rise from climate change puzzle me.  I must misunderstand something? Or is
there a typo?

"If melted completely, Greenland and Antarctic ice could raise sea level 10
m"

If "10 m" is ten meters, that's only about 33 feet.

For years various sources I have read indicate a total meltdown of
Greenland and Antarctica would raise sea level above current level close to
200 feet.  Consider this USGS source, indicating 80 meters of potential sea
level rise from Greenland and Antarctica total meltdown, with the
contribution from other sources a mere .45 meter:
"Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of
about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a
sea-level rise of only one-half meter."
 http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

*Sea Level and Climate By Richard Z. Poore, Richard S. Williams, Jr., and
Christopher Tracey *

-----------------------------------
Also, this quote given my research is debatable:

"A plausible upper bound estimate lies near 1 meter of ice melt by 2100..."

If this means 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100 as a plausible upper bound,
the following paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, by Rahmstorf et. al. who is one of world's leading experts on
oceans and climate change, disagrees strongly.  The upper bound given in
this paper is 1.9  meters sea level rise, about 6 feet, by 2100, as you can
read from the PNAS website here:  "...the relationship projects a sea-level
rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100."
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full
-------------------------------------

*The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for Tomorrow*

By Vivien Gornitz — June 2012

 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/
------------------------------------

Yours Sincerely,

Ted Moffett
Moscow, Idaho
https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=ted+moffett+global+warming&oq=ted+moffett&aq=1K&aqi=g-K2&aql=&gs_l=serp.1.1.0i30l2.4502.11087.0.12871.62.27.0.2.2.15.352.6056.0j1j22j2.27.0...0.0.19RrY2O3Gas&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=2a0c451876a1d4b9&biw=1280&bih=916

==========

Gavin Schmidt
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
2880 Broadway
New York, NY 10025
Tel: 212 678 5627
Email: Gavin.A.Schmidt at nasa.gov
URL: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt.html
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