<html><head></head><body bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><div>Cool<br><br><br></div><div><br>On Jun 14, 2012, at 3:13 PM, Ted Moffett <<a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><div></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div>I recently read an article featured on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies website, as referenced below:<br>"The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for Tomorrow"</div><div><a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/">http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/</a></div>
<div> </div><div>I found what I thought to be an error in the article, and yesterday attempted to email the author for clarification. The email bounced, so I forwarded the email to scientist Gavin Schmidt, who also works at Goddard, to request he forward it to the author.</div>
<div> </div><div>Today I received a rapid response, both from Gavin Schmidt and the author in question, Vivian Gornitz; and the article in question now, as I just checked seconds ago on the GISS website, contains a correction regarding the error I noted.</div>
<div> </div><div>This rapid response and quick correction is a testament to the integrity of these scientists associated with Goddard, who could just as well ignore an email from someone such as I, of rather limited, how shall I phrase it, economic, political or cultural power, regardless of my intelligence or knowledge.</div>
<div> </div><div>I am forwarding this correspondence to Vision2020, given that though it was in some sense private, it concerns scientific information provided by government employees about a purely professional scientific question, of grave importance to everyone in the US, indeed, the entire planet, and contains no private personal information.</div>
<div> </div><div>Goddard, via Vivian Gornitz, acknowledged that the 10 meter sea level rise figure given in the article in question, from a total meltdown of Greenland and Antarctica, was incorrect. The article should have read that 10 meters of sea level rise would result from melt down of Greenland and West Antarctica only, not the entire Antarctic ice sheet, as it now does read.</div>
<div>----------------------------------------</div><div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div><div> </div><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">Vivien Gornitz</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:vmg1@columbia.edu">vmg1@columbia.edu</a>></span><br>
Date: Wed, Jun 13, 2012 at 11:22 AM<br>Subject: Re: Fwd: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS Website<br>To: <a href="mailto:gavin.a.schmidt@nasa.gov">gavin.a.schmidt@nasa.gov</a><br>Cc: Ted Moffett <<a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a>><br>
<div class="HOEnZb"><div class="h5"><div>Gavin:<br><br>
Thanks for catching this error. It should have been Greenland and
the <u>West Antarctic Ice Sheet</u> (not the entire continent of
Antarctica. At this point, no one is anticipating that the entire
continent of Antarctica would melt in the foreseeable future). Greenland
has a total of approximately 7 m sea level rise equivalent; the WAIS
holds the sea level equivalent of 3 m of ice, so a total of ~10 m.
Will have this corrected as soon as possible. Don't know what the
problem with my e-mail is. I've been getting e-mail regularly at
the above address. <br><br>
As to a plausible upper bound projected sea level rise of one meter, this
estimated value applies to the icemelt component only; as clearly stated
in the footnote, local (or relative) sea level rise could be much higher
due to glacial isostatic adjustments, land subsidence, and changes in
ocean currents, as well as the contribution from thermal expansion.
In New York City, for example, our recent NPCC study projected a rise of
~41 to 55 inches (1.0--1.4 m) by the 2080s, for the so-called "rapid
ice-melt scenario"; i.e., 1 m of icemelt plus the other factors
contributing to sea level rise. (Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki,W. eds.,
2010. Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk
Management Response. <i>Annals of the NY Acad. Sci.</i> 1196). The
big unknown is how rapidly the ice sheets will respond to the future rise
in temperature. My personal hunch is that the initial response will
be relatively slow initially and speed up much more in the future.
However, the big danger is that as temperatures continue to rise and
remain elevated well beyond 2100, the persistent warm conditions
will weaken significant portions of the ice sheets to a point of fairly
sudden and rapid decay, committing this planet to many meters of sea
level rise in the coming centuries. However, the likelihood of
having over ~1 m or so of icemelt by 2100 still appears fairly
remote.<br><br>
Vivien<br><br>
<br>
At 07:53 PM 6/12/2012, you wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite">Vivien - 2nd message I've got
about this!<br><br>
gavin<br><br>
Begin forwarded message:<br><br>
<blockquote type="cite"><b>From: </b>Ted Moffett
<<a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>June 12, 2012 7:44:24 PM EDT<br>
<b>To: </b>"Schmidt, Gavin A. (GISS-6110)"
<<a href="mailto:gavin.a.schmidt@nasa.gov" target="_blank">gavin.a.schmidt@nasa.gov</a>
><br>
<b>Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS
Website</b><br><br>
Gavin Schmidt:<br>
<br>
I attempted to send the following email to Vivian Gornitz, but the email
bounced back, though I used the email address given in the contact info
that was provided with her article in question.<br>
<br>
Can you forward this email to her?<br>
<br>
Ted<br>
---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>
From: <b>Ted Moffett</b>
<<a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a>><br>
Date: Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 4:31 PM<br>
Subject: Clarification Please: Sea Level Rise article on GISS
Website<br>
To:
<a href="mailto:vivien.m.gornitz@nasa.gov" target="_blank">vivien.m.gornitz@nasa.gov</a>
<br>
Hello Vivian Gornitz:<br>
<br>
I few comments in your recent GISS article (website at bottom) on sea
level rise from climate change puzzle me. I must misunderstand
something? Or is there a typo? <br>
<br>
"If melted completely, Greenland and Antarctic ice could raise sea
level 10 m"<br>
<br>
If "10 m" is ten meters, that's only about 33 feet.<br>
<br>
For years various sources I have read indicate a total meltdown of
Greenland and Antarctica would raise sea level above current level close
to 200 feet. Consider this USGS source, indicating 80 meters of
potential sea level rise from Greenland and Antarctica total meltdown,
with the contribution from other sources a mere .45 meter:<br>
"Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise
of about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a
sea-level rise of only one-half meter."<br>
<a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/" target="_blank">
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/</a><br><br>
<br>
<h2><b>Sea Level and Climate By Richard Z. Poore, Richard S. Williams,
Jr., and Christopher Tracey </b></h2><br><br>
<br><br>
-----------------------------------<br>
Also, this quote given my research is debatable:<br>
<br>
"A plausible upper bound estimate lies near 1 meter of ice melt by
2100..."<br>
<br>
If this means 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100 as a plausible upper
bound, the following paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, by Rahmstorf et. al. who is one of world's leading experts
on oceans and climate change, disagrees strongly. The upper bound
given in this paper is 1.9 meters sea level rise, about 6 feet, by
2100, as you can read from the PNAS website here: "...the
relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the
period 1990–2100."
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full" target="_blank">
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full</a><br>
-------------------------------------<br><br>
<br>
<h3><b>The Great Ice Meltdown and Rising Seas: Lessons for
Tomorrow</b></h3><br><br>
<br><br>
By Vivien Gornitz — June 2012<br><br>
<a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/" target="_blank">
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_10/</a><br>
------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Yours Sincerely,<br>
<br>
Ted Moffett<br>
Moscow, Idaho <br>
<a href="https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=ted+moffett+global+warming&oq=ted+moffett&aq=1K&aqi=g-K2&aql=&gs_l=serp.1.1.0i30l2.4502.11087.0.12871.62.27.0.2.2.15.352.6056.0j1j22j2.27.0...0.0.19RrY2O3Gas&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=2a0c451876a1d4b9&biw=1280&bih=916" target="_blank">
https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=ted+moffett+global+warming&oq=ted+moffett&aq=1K&aqi=g-K2&aql=&gs_l=serp.1.1.0i30l2.4502.11087.0.12871.62.27.0.2.2.15.352.6056.0j1j22j2.27.0...0.0.19RrY2O3Gas&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=2a0c451876a1d4b9&biw=1280&bih=916</a>
<br>
</blockquote><br>
==========<br><br>
Gavin Schmidt<br>
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies<br>
2880 Broadway<br>
New York, NY 10025<br>
Tel: <a href="tel:212%20678%205627" target="_blank" value="+12126785627">212 678 5627</a><br>
Email:
<a href="mailto:Gavin.A.Schmidt@nasa.gov" target="_blank">Gavin.A.Schmidt@nasa.gov</a><br>
URL:
<a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt.html" target="_blank">
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt.html</a></blockquote></div>
</div></div></div><br>
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