[Vision2020] El Nino Dry Northwest Winter Predictions Holding True

[Donovan Arnold]

I wish the global warming would hurry up already, I am tired of buying snow tires. And the trip to Europe, Russia, and China will be so much faster going North instead of East or West. :P
 
Maybe El Nino can be the name of the next Sesame Street character; Bert, Ernie, Elmo and El Nino can all be roomies to save money during the deep long recession. 
 
Your Friend,
 
Donovan Arnold

--- On Sun, 1/10/10, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:


From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] El Nino Dry Northwest Winter Predictions Holding True
To: "Dan Carscallen" <areaman at moscow.com>
Cc: "Moscow Vision 2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>
Date: Sunday, January 10, 2010, 1:47 AM



I also "relish" the much drier (so far) winter this season.  Much more favorable for winter bicycling.  
 
National Weather Service predicts no major precipitation events for next week through Jan. 15, which is about the mid-point of the meteorological winter (Dec.1 -March 1, rather than the astronomical winter, Dec. 20-Mar. 20, winter solstice to spring equinox). Of course, the odds are against receiving enough snow during the remainder of this winter (either meteorological or astronomical) to equal either of the past two winters total snow.
 
As far as snowpack impacts on water issues and the fire season, snowpack can melt much earlier in the season with a warm spring, so a large winter snowpack is no guarantee it will remain to melt at the optimum time for use in the later spring or summer, or to assist in mitigating fire hazard developing early.  
 
Consider the record setting January snow cover and record setting low snow cover for March in Eurasia in 2008, due to large snow cover that melted early due to very warm temperatures:
 
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080417_marchstats.html
 
Global Highlights
 The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March, 3.3°F above the 20th century mean of 40.8°F. Temperatures more than 8°F above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the greatest January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the unusually warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on the Eurasian continent was the lowest on record. 
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
 
On 1/7/10, Dan Carscallen <areaman at moscow.com> wrote: 



Two things to comment on Swami Ted’s post:
 
1. While the lack of snowpack is a detriment to our water issues and could create a more hazardous fire season, I personally relish the though of an “open” winter after the last two, and historically that’s how it’s been (we seem to run on almost 20 year cycles – see the 114 years of snowfall data at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMONtsnf.pl?id6152), because that means we’ll either have more money for projects in the summer or ‘banked’ for the tough years (we haven’t really created that account yet – I’m wearing my city council hat now)
 
2. Winter isn’t over yet.
 
DC

 
-----Original Message-----
From: vision2020-bounces at moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-bounces at moscow.com] On Behalf Of Ted Moffett
Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 10:29 AM
To: Moscow Vision 2020
Subject: [Vision2020] El Nino Dry Northwest Winter Predictions Holding True
 

According to Weather.com, Moscow Idaho's average and 2009 actual precipitation amounts for Nov. and Dec. are:

 

Nov. average 3.54 in.: Actual 1 in.

Dec. average 3.14 in. Actual .81 in.

 

Nov./Dec. 2009 only had 27% of average precipitation in Moscow.

Vision2020 post about El Nino arrival from summer 2009, with predictions for a drier less snowy winter 2009-10 in the Northwest:

 

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064999.html

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

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