[Vision2020] El Nino (ENSO) Announced July 9: Northwest Climate Shift

[Ted Moffett]

 El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

July 9, 2009

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon
with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine
fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical
Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically
lasts about 12 months.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
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My comment:

This may result in next winter being drier than the past few winters for the
Northwest US.  As temperatures are predicted to hit the upper 90s F. the
next few days in Moscow, this news may be unseasonal; but the arrival of an
El Nino event is significant if you worry about plans for the snow removal
budget in North Idaho.  Also, El Nino may have more immediate effects on US
weather in other areas, and of course globally. Caps as appearing on NOAA
website below (no intent to yell):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS)<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#ssts>IN
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE NOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CPC<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#cpc>HAS
DECLARED AN EL
NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el
nino> IN EFFECT. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 200
METERS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, MAKING IT LIKELY THAT ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#ssts>WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF SUMMER, FALL AND WINTER. THE CFS MODEL
CORRECTLY ANTICIPATED THIS RAPID TRANSITION IN ITS FORECASTS FOR THE LAST
FEW MONTHS, AND ITS CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
SST<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#sst>
ANOMALIES<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#anomalies>APPROACHING
2 KELVIN IN THE COMING FEW MONTHS, SUGGESTING THAT MODERATE EL
NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el
nino> CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
-----------------

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR ASO 2009 CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM ARIZONA TO FLORIDA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS. ELSEWHERE,
EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED.
----------------

A TREND<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#trend>-RELATED
DRY FORECAST IS
INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
----------------
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED IN EL NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el
nino> WINTERS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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