[Vision2020] El Nino Dry Northwest Winter Predictions Holding True

[Ted Moffett]

I also "relish" the much drier (so far) winter this season.  Much more
favorable for winter bicycling.

National Weather Service predicts no major precipitation events for next
week through Jan. 15, which is about the mid-point of the meteorological
winter (Dec.1 -March 1, rather than the astronomical winter, Dec. 20-Mar.
20, winter solstice to spring equinox). Of course, the odds are against
receiving enough snow during the remainder of this winter (either
meteorological or astronomical) to equal either of the past two winters
total snow.

As far as snowpack impacts on water issues and the fire season, snowpack can
melt much earlier in the season with a warm spring, so a large winter
snowpack is no guarantee it will remain to melt at the optimum time for use
in the later spring or summer, or to assist in mitigating fire hazard
developing early.

Consider the record setting January snow cover and record setting low snow
cover for March in Eurasia in 2008, due to large snow cover that melted
early due to very warm temperatures:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080417_marchstats.html

Global Highlights

The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March,
3.3°F above the 20th century mean of 40.8°F. Temperatures more than 8°F
above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the
greatest January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the
unusually warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover
extent on the Eurasian continent was the lowest on record.
------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

On 1/7/10, Dan Carscallen <areaman at moscow.com> wrote:
>
>  Two things to comment on Swami Ted’s post:
>
>
>
> 1. While the lack of snowpack is a detriment to our water issues and could
> create a more hazardous fire season, I personally relish the though of an
> “open” winter after the last two, and historically that’s how it’s been (we
> seem to run on almost 20 year cycles – see the 114 years of snowfall data at
> http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMONtsnf.pl?id6152), because that means
> we’ll either have more money for projects in the summer or ‘banked’ for the
> tough years (we haven’t really created that account yet – I’m wearing my
> city council hat now)
>
>
>
> 2. Winter isn’t over yet.
>
>
>
> DC
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> *From:* vision2020-bounces at moscow.com [mailto:
> vision2020-bounces at moscow.com] *On Behalf Of *Ted Moffett
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 07, 2010 10:29 AM
> *To:* Moscow Vision 2020
> *Subject:* [Vision2020] El Nino Dry Northwest Winter Predictions Holding
> True
>
>
>
> According to Weather.com, Moscow Idaho's average and 2009 actual
> precipitation amounts for Nov. and Dec. are:
>
>
>
> Nov. average 3.54 in.: Actual 1 in.
>
> Dec. average 3.14 in. Actual .81 in.
>
>
>
> Nov./Dec. 2009 only had 27% of average precipitation in Moscow.
>
> Vision2020 post about El Nino arrival from summer 2009, with predictions
> for a drier less snowy winter 2009-10 in the Northwest:
>
>
>
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064999.html
>
> ------------------------------------------
>
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
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