[Vision2020] Bluntly Put, This is BS! Re: Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño

[Ted Moffett]

And dated Feb 9, 2017 from Climate Prediction Center at website below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

ENSO Alert System Status

"...the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a
60% chance."
-------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 6:34 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:

> Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> quoted:
>
> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>
> "An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru and
> is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March, Douglas
> said."
> -----------------------------------------
> Oh really?
>
> I just checked ENSO diagostic from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dated
> 2-6-17, and they do not currently predict what the quote above indicates
> regarding El Nino.
>
> Someone correct me if I am wrong!
>
> Only a 35% percent chance of El Nino developing is predicted, and not
> until August through October, as you can read below.
>
> I suppose it is possible that in a mere two days some dramatic shift
> happened in the eastern Pacific ocean, but I doubt it.
>
> Why not go to the most credible source on ENSO (El Nino Southern
> Oscilation) for current status and predictions of US Northwest weather?
>
> At the website below the following prediction is given, pasted in below,
> which can be read by scanning way down the pdf:
>
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/la
> nina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>
> ENSO: Recent Evolution,
> Current Status and Predictions
> Update prepared by:
> Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
> 6 February 2017
>
> "ENSO -neutral is favored through mid-2017, with smaller chances of El
> Nino (35%) and La Nina (15%)
> by August- September-October (ASO) 2017."
> ---------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
> On Wed, Feb 8, 2017 at 4:31 AM, Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:
>
>> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>>
>> ---------------------------------
>> Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño
>>
>> A weather expert who has handed down predictions at the Spokane Ag Expo
>> for three decades says the Inland Northwest can expect a summer that’s
>> hotter and drier than normal.
>>
>> An emerging El Nino will warm things up and dry them out in coming
>> months, a meteorology expert told farmers Tuesday in Spokane.
>>
>> Art Douglas, an emeritus professor of meteorology at Creighton
>> University, was the keynote speaker at the opening session of the 40th
>> annual Spokane Ag Expo at the Convention Center. The expo, in conjunction
>> with the annual Pacific Northwest Farm Forum, runs through Thursday.
>>
>> Douglas told farmers and agriculture industry workers that when
>> temperatures warm, then cool and now warm again in the tropical Pacific, it
>> has a strong effect on current weather and the weather expected when spring
>> arrives and turns to summer harvest.
>>
>> “Storms are going to have a much harder time getting into the Northwest,”
>> said Douglas, who taught weather at Creighton University and now is a
>> consultant.
>>
>> An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru and
>> is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March, Douglas
>> said.
>>
>> An El Nino warming of the tropics from 2014 to early 2016 led to a major
>> drought along the West Coast in 2015 and 2016. It also sent warmer water
>> into the eastern Pacific as far north as Alaska, which has been an
>> ingredient in storm formation since October.
>>
>> The La Nina cooling of the tropics that began last fall energized the
>> storm track over California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho and Washington since
>> October. Those storms were fueled in part by the large area of warmer water
>> off the coast that was the remnant of the previous El Nino, Douglas said.
>>
>> El Nino takes its name from the development of warmer water along the
>> coast of Peru around Christmas and the celebration of “the little boy.”
>>
>> As for crop production, Douglas said Pacific Northwest grain crops should
>> be in good shape with ample soil moisture available and some spring storms
>> to help keep the ground moist.
>>
>> A hot and dry summer is good for harvesting mature grain crops but also
>> could cause more difficult growing conditions looking ahead to planting
>> winter wheat next fall.
>>
>> In contrast, the grain belt of the central U.S. should see lots of spring
>> rain and probably violent storms, Douglas said. Crops there should be
>> bountiful as the coming storms make up for a moisture deficit, he said.
>>
>> Elsewhere around the world, Australia and the Black Sea growing areas
>> have been dry and crops may suffer. China and northern India stand good
>> chances for bountiful crops, he said, adding that he sees a mixed bag for
>> South America.
>> ---------------------------------
>>
>> Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .
>>
>> "Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)
>> http://www.MoscowCares.com <http://www.moscowcares.com/>
>>
>> Tom Hansen
>> Moscow, Idaho
>>
>>
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>
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