[Vision2020] Bluntly Put, This is BS! Re: Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño

[Ted Moffett]

Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> quoted:

Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.

"An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru and
is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March, Douglas
said."
-----------------------------------------
Below is even more reason to call BS!  Or maybe Douglas was talking about
Texas?  However, the article in the Spokesman Review stated "Inland
Northwest.."

As the information below shows, Texas is predicted to get above
normal temp. in the next three months, but not North Idaho, Washington or
Montana.  From page 31 of 32 in the following pdf from Climate Prediction
Center, three month temperature predictions Feb. through Apr. 2017, clearly
showing N. Idaho in the cooler temperature probability area in blue:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
----------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

Temperature

[image: Inline image 1]

On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 6:50 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:

And dated Feb 9, 2017 from Climate Prediction Center at website below:
>
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/
> enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
>
> ENSO Alert System Status
>
> "...the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a
> 60% chance."
> -------------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
> On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 6:34 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> quoted:
>>
>> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>>
>> "An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru
>> and is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March,
>> Douglas said."
>> -----------------------------------------
>> Oh really?
>>
>> I just checked ENSO diagostic from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center,
>> dated 2-6-17, and they do not currently predict what the quote above
>> indicates regarding El Nino.
>>
>> Someone correct me if I am wrong!
>>
>> Only a 35% percent chance of El Nino developing is predicted, and not
>> until August through October, as you can read below.
>>
>> I suppose it is possible that in a mere two days some dramatic shift
>> happened in the eastern Pacific ocean, but I doubt it.
>>
>> Why not go to the most credible source on ENSO (El Nino Southern
>> Oscilation) for current status and predictions of US Northwest weather?
>>
>> At the website below the following prediction is given, pasted in below,
>> which can be read by scanning way down the pdf:
>>
>> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/la
>> nina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>>
>> ENSO: Recent Evolution,
>> Current Status and Predictions
>> Update prepared by:
>> Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
>> 6 February 2017
>>
>> "ENSO -neutral is favored through mid-2017, with smaller chances of El
>> Nino (35%) and La Nina (15%)
>> by August- September-October (ASO) 2017."
>> ---------------------------------------
>> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 8, 2017 at 4:31 AM, Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>>>
>>> ---------------------------------
>>> Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño
>>>
>>> A weather expert who has handed down predictions at the Spokane Ag Expo
>>> for three decades says the Inland Northwest can expect a summer that’s
>>> hotter and drier than normal.
>>>
>>> An emerging El Nino will warm things up and dry them out in coming
>>> months, a meteorology expert told farmers Tuesday in Spokane.
>>>
>>> Art Douglas, an emeritus professor of meteorology at Creighton
>>> University, was the keynote speaker at the opening session of the 40th
>>> annual Spokane Ag Expo at the Convention Center. The expo, in conjunction
>>> with the annual Pacific Northwest Farm Forum, runs through Thursday.
>>>
>>> Douglas told farmers and agriculture industry workers that when
>>> temperatures warm, then cool and now warm again in the tropical Pacific, it
>>> has a strong effect on current weather and the weather expected when spring
>>> arrives and turns to summer harvest.
>>>
>>> “Storms are going to have a much harder time getting into the
>>> Northwest,” said Douglas, who taught weather at Creighton University and
>>> now is a consultant.
>>>
>>> An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru
>>> and is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March,
>>> Douglas said.
>>>
>>> An El Nino warming of the tropics from 2014 to early 2016 led to a major
>>> drought along the West Coast in 2015 and 2016. It also sent warmer water
>>> into the eastern Pacific as far north as Alaska, which has been an
>>> ingredient in storm formation since October.
>>>
>>> The La Nina cooling of the tropics that began last fall energized the
>>> storm track over California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho and Washington since
>>> October. Those storms were fueled in part by the large area of warmer water
>>> off the coast that was the remnant of the previous El Nino, Douglas said.
>>>
>>> El Nino takes its name from the development of warmer water along the
>>> coast of Peru around Christmas and the celebration of “the little boy.”
>>>
>>> As for crop production, Douglas said Pacific Northwest grain crops
>>> should be in good shape with ample soil moisture available and some spring
>>> storms to help keep the ground moist.
>>>
>>> A hot and dry summer is good for harvesting mature grain crops but also
>>> could cause more difficult growing conditions looking ahead to planting
>>> winter wheat next fall.
>>>
>>> In contrast, the grain belt of the central U.S. should see lots of
>>> spring rain and probably violent storms, Douglas said. Crops there should
>>> be bountiful as the coming storms make up for a moisture deficit, he said.
>>>
>>> Elsewhere around the world, Australia and the Black Sea growing areas
>>> have been dry and crops may suffer. China and northern India stand good
>>> chances for bountiful crops, he said, adding that he sees a mixed bag for
>>> South America.
>>> ---------------------------------
>>>
>>> Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .
>>>
>>> "Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)
>>> http://www.MoscowCares.com <http://www.moscowcares.com/>
>>>
>>> Tom Hansen
>>> Moscow, Idaho
>>>
>>>
>>>
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