[Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
Gary Crabtree
moscowlocksmith at gmail.com
Thu Feb 21 09:21:02 PST 2013
I agree (I think) I rationally choose not to discard a potentially valuable
tool based on how unlikely it is that I will need to apply it in any one
specific application and as such refuse to play russian roulette.
Likelihood of firearm as useful tool in home defense scenario <1/6
(doubtless far less given our community) but not =0
Likelihood of firearm as useful tool when not available =0
g
On Thu, Feb 21, 2013 at 8:16 AM, Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>wrote:
> @Joe,
>
> Empirical evidence is important, and especially some general estimate of
> the risk.
>
> However, the general risk is different from a specific risk, and more
> important is the expected value of the risk
>
> If for example, I propose to ay you $100 if a throw of a die is greater
> than 1, but you pay me $100 if the throw equals 1.
>
> EV = (5/6)*100 - (1/6)*100 = $500, normally a very good bet for you in the
> long run, and little but some risk in a single trial.
>
> To see the relevancy of this to the present issue, just change the above
> game to Russian Roulette.
>
> The owner of a gun for protection despite the odds, rationally chooses not
> to pay Russian Roulette.
>
> w.
>
>
> On Thu, Feb 21, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com
> > wrote:
>
>> In and of itself, no. If he grins, pulls a knife and advances, most
>> likely the answer will be a reluctant yes.
>>
>> I realize full well how unlikely it is that a home defense scenario is,
>> living on the sleepy Palouse and own firearms for reasons that go beyond
>> protection. I simply do not want my rights curtailed based on the shaky
>> statistical argument of lack of need.
>>
>> g
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 21, 2013 at 6:50 AM, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> So if the intoxicated college student who wanders into your home says
>>> "Or what?" your plan is to shoot him?
>>>
>>> You keep missing this point: the scenario that you imagine is
>>> improbable. There are other more probable scenarios where you end up
>>> harming yourself or an innocent victim rather than protecting yourself.
>>>
>>> On Feb 21, 2013, at 5:43 AM, "Gary Crabtree" <jampot at roadrunner.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> The point that you and most of the other anti-firearm respondents
>>> continually miss is that I, nor Paul or Roger are not advocating the
>>> Fearless Fosdick/LAPD tactic of firing a warning shot into the back of the
>>> head of our lovable and slightly confused/intoxicated intruder. What I, and
>>> I believe the others are saying is that a weapon can be a usefull tool in
>>> certain situations and while some may elect to not have that tool at their
>>> disposal, I would like to be able to have it as one of my options. Any sane
>>> person would prefer that an intruder in their home simply leave when told.
>>> Having a weapon forestalls the intruders potential response of "or what."
>>>
>>> g
>>>
>>> *From:* Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 20, 2013 11:28 PM
>>> *To:* Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com> ; Art Deco<art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>>> *Cc:* vision2020 at moscow.com
>>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>>
>>> I guess that would work if you sat behind your door with a gun waiting
>>> for an unexpected guest. The smartest thing to do if you suspect people are
>>> trying to get into your house would be to exit through the nearest door or
>>> window. Then call the police. When they exit the house the police will be
>>> there to nab them, or you can slash their tires and have fun watching them
>>> trying to escape with your insured television.
>>>
>>> Keep in mind, if you shoot an unarmed person that is not 100% in your
>>> house you are in legal trouble. A dead body in your house will be cleaned
>>> up and removed at your expense, and it isn't cheap. And you will have to
>>> disclose the death on the sale of the home, which will cost you $10,000s.
>>> You will have to live with the fact that you probably killed an innocent
>>> person. Chances are someone that entered your home unexpectedly in
>>> Moscow would be an intoxicated college student whose biggest threat
>>> would be vomits on your living room carpet.
>>>
>>> There are countless risks for getting into a gun battle with an unknown
>>> person, the risks of insuring your belongs and beating feet at the sign of
>>> danger are much less and have far better outcomes. I'm not against owning a
>>> gun, but that scenario is a stupid reason to use a gun. I would use a
>>> gun if I was out of the immediate reach of the police and there was a clear
>>> and present danger to my life or the life of another. With the possible
>>> exception if I was robbed constantly with no help from the police or
>>> insurance companies.
>>>
>>> Donovan J. Arnold
>>>
>>> *From:* Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
>>> *To:* Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>>> *Cc:* vision2020 at moscow.com
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 20, 2013 2:33 PM
>>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>>
>>> The problem does not seem at all insurmountable.
>>>
>>> Problem, person(s) force entry to ones home without invitation.
>>>
>>> Solution. Point weapon in general direction of intruder and request
>>> (insist) they leave.
>>>
>>> Outcome. They comply or they do not.
>>>
>>> Compliance equals positive resolution to problem.
>>>
>>> Noncompliance results in negative outcome for intruder.
>>>
>>> The real problem stems from not having the proper tools to affect the
>>> desired outcome.
>>>
>>> g
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>> The problem of dealing with intruders involves sometimes a dangerous
>>> lack of information.
>>>
>>> Is the intruder armed?
>>>
>>> Is there more than one?
>>>
>>> What are the intentions of of the intruder?
>>>
>>> Who is the intruder? Is she/he someone known? What is the relevant
>>> history of the intruder?
>>>
>>> Are there effective/non-lethal ways of neutralizing the intruder?
>>>
>>> How can those intruded upon calculate the the risk to themselves, and
>>> decide upon the action to be taken?
>>>
>>>
>>> w.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 12:00 PM, Joe Campbell <
>>> philosopher.joe at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> These are empirically claims. Could be that pulling out a gun
>>> increases your risk. It depends on a lot of factors.
>>>
>>> The big question is: does the potential for help outweigh the risk of
>>> harm?
>>>
>>> And I hate to tell you that in a region with a low incidence of gun
>>> violence, the answer is 'No.' Paul's weapons are more likely to cause him
>>> harm than they are to protect him.
>>>
>>> On Feb 20, 2013, at 8:05 AM, Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Once "he" becomes aware of said gun it becomes a powerful deterrent
>>> to staying in your house much less helping himself to your belongings or
>>> continued good health.
>>>
>>> g
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 6:56 AM, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com
>>> > wrote:
>>>
>>> This is what listening to pop music can do to you!
>>>
>>> Paul: If he's in your house, then the gun was not a deterrent.
>>>
>>> On Feb 20, 2013, at 6:12 AM, Sunil Ramalingam <
>>> sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> But not in a judgmental way. I'm too busy singing to put anybody down.
>>>
>>> sr
>>>
>>> From: jampot at roadrunner.com
>>> To: sunilramalingam at hotmail.com
>>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>> Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2013 06:02:11 -0800
>>>
>>> Now you're just monkeeing around.
>>>
>>> g
>>>
>>> *From:* Sunil Ramalingam <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com>
>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 19, 2013 11:07 PM
>>> *Cc:* vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>>
>>> The premise of your post was that he was breaking into homes when people
>>> were there. Now you're inventing his motive to kill you. No, if he saw your
>>> face, he'd be a believer, not a killer.
>>>
>>>
>>> Sunil
>>>
>>> Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 22:56:57 -0800
>>> From: godshatter at yahoo.com
>>> To: sunilramalingam at hotmail.com
>>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>>
>>>
>>> It didn't say he was. If he did, though, I'd want to be able to protect
>>> myself if he ran across me in a home he thought was empty and he got it
>>> through his head that I had to die because I'd seen his face. Or maybe
>>> he's desperate, and now he's willing to try hitting a house that is
>>> occupied but looks like he could rob it regardless.
>>>
>>> It's a tool of preparedness. I'd rather not assume that he's harmless
>>> if he's breaking into houses and robbing them. If my assumption is wrong,
>>> I could die. I'd rather not throw away my chance at survival because "
>>> OMG! Guns are bad!"
>>>
>>> It doesn't mean, by the way, that I'd just shoot this guy for breaking
>>> into my house. But a loaded weapon is a good deterrent, and if it turns
>>> out my life is at stake, I'd rather have a gun than a shoe I could throw at
>>> him, or whatever I happened to have at hand.
>>>
>>> This isn't rocket science. Be prepared. It's the good old Boy Scout
>>> motto. I also have a smoke detector and a fire extinguisher.
>>>
>>> Don't let the "guns are killing our kids!" narrative drive your views.
>>>
>>> Paul
>>>
>>> On 02/19/2013 10:43 PM, Sunil Ramalingam wrote:
>>>
>>> Paul,
>>>
>>> Where does it say he's breaking into homes when people are in? I had a
>>> lot of burglary cases, and my mistakenly charged clients were usually
>>> alleged to have entered homes when no one was there. Lots easier to leave
>>> with stuff that way, said the authorities.
>>>
>>> Sunil
>>>
>>> Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 19:02:25 -0800
>>> From: godshatter at yahoo.com
>>> To: thansen at moscow.com
>>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>>
>>>
>>> What's paranoid about locking up when you're out and being ready to
>>> defend yourself when you're at home when there is a known burglar in the
>>> area? Being prepared is not the same thing as being paranoid. If someone
>>> is crazy enough to break into your home while you are there, you can go
>>> ahead and classify that as a situation fraught with danger, in which case
>>> having some means to protect yourself might be called for. There are
>>> plenty of reasonable scenarios where a would-be burglar happens upon a
>>> member of the household when he thought the place was empty that could end
>>> up very badly for the person he stumbled upon. If the burglar knew you
>>> were at home and invaded the home anyway, then you've definitely got a
>>> problem if you are happily unarmed.
>>>
>>> Better to have that gun when you need it than not. If guns frighten
>>> you, which I find hard to believe because of your military background, then
>>> at least pick up a good aluminum baseball bat.
>>>
>>> Do you think I'm paranoid because I keep a set of jumper cables in my
>>> trunk in case my battery dies and I need a jump from a kind stranger? Are
>>> you one of those people that joyously flit from situation to situation
>>> relying on the gods to keep you out of trouble?
>>>
>>> Paul
>>>
>>> On 02/19/2013 01:18 PM, Tom Hansen wrote:
>>>
>>> <ATT00001>
>>>
>>> Paranoia . . . self-destroya.
>>>
>>> Seeya round town, Moscow, because . . .
>>>
>>> "Moscow Cares"
>>> http://www.moscowcares.com/
>>>
>>> Tom "Proud to be a Filthy Liberal Scum" Hansen
>>> Moscow, Idaho
>>>
>>> "There's room at the top they are telling you still
>>> But first you must learn how to smile as you kill
>>> If you want to be like the folks on the hill."
>>>
>>> - John Lennon
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>>
>>> --
>>> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
>>> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>> ------------------------------
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>>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
>
>
>
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> List services made available by First Step Internet,
> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
> http://www.fsr.net
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>
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