[Vision2020] Hmmm . . .

[Art Deco]

@Joe,

Empirical evidence is important, and especially some general estimate of
the risk.

However, the general risk is different from a specific risk, and more
important is the expected value of the risk

If for example, I propose to ay you $100  if a throw of a die is greater
than 1, but you pay me $100 if the throw equals 1.

EV = (5/6)*100 - (1/6)*100 = $500, normally a very good bet for you in the
long run, and little but some risk in a single trial.

To see the relevancy of this to the present issue, just change the above
game to Russian Roulette.

The owner of a gun for protection despite the odds, rationally chooses not
to pay Russian Roulette.

w.


On Thu, Feb 21, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Gary Crabtree
<moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>wrote:

> In and of itself, no. If he grins, pulls a knife and advances, most likely
> the answer will be a reluctant yes.
>
> I realize full well how unlikely it is that a home defense scenario is,
> living on the sleepy Palouse and own firearms for reasons that go beyond
> protection. I simply do not want my rights curtailed based on the shaky
> statistical argument of lack of need.
>
> g
>
> On Thu, Feb 21, 2013 at 6:50 AM, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> So if the intoxicated college student who wanders into your home says "Or
>> what?" your plan is to shoot him?
>>
>> You keep missing this point: the scenario that you imagine is improbable.
>> There are other more probable scenarios where you end up harming yourself
>> or an innocent victim rather than protecting yourself.
>>
>> On Feb 21, 2013, at 5:43 AM, "Gary Crabtree" <jampot at roadrunner.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> The point that you and most of the other anti-firearm respondents
>> continually miss is that I, nor Paul or Roger are not advocating the
>> Fearless Fosdick/LAPD tactic of firing a warning shot into the back of the
>> head of our lovable and slightly confused/intoxicated intruder. What I, and
>> I believe the others are saying is that a weapon can be a usefull tool in
>> certain situations and while some may elect to not have that tool at their
>> disposal, I would like to be able to have it as one of my options. Any sane
>> person would prefer that an intruder in their home simply leave when told.
>> Having a weapon forestalls the intruders potential response of "or what."
>>
>> g
>>
>>  *From:* Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 20, 2013 11:28 PM
>> *To:* Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com> ; Art Deco<art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>> *Cc:* vision2020 at moscow.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>
>>  I guess that would work if you sat behind your door with a gun waiting
>> for an unexpected guest. The smartest thing to do if you suspect people are
>> trying to get into your house would be to exit through the nearest door or
>> window. Then call the police. When they exit the house the police will be
>> there to nab them, or you can slash their tires and have fun watching them
>> trying to escape with your insured television.
>>
>> Keep in mind, if you shoot an unarmed person that is not 100% in your
>> house you are in legal trouble. A dead body in your house will be cleaned
>> up and removed at your expense, and it isn't cheap. And you will have to
>> disclose the death on the sale of the home, which will cost you $10,000s.
>> You will have to live with the fact that you probably killed an innocent
>> person. Chances are someone that entered your home unexpectedly in
>> Moscow would be an intoxicated college student whose biggest threat
>> would be vomits on your living room carpet.
>>
>> There are countless risks for getting into a gun battle with an unknown
>> person, the risks of insuring your belongs and beating feet at the sign of
>> danger are much less and have far better outcomes. I'm not against owning a
>> gun, but that scenario is a stupid reason to use a gun. I would use a
>> gun if I was out of the immediate reach of the police and there was a clear
>> and present danger to my life or the life of another. With the possible
>> exception if I was robbed constantly with no help from the police or
>> insurance companies.
>>
>> Donovan J. Arnold
>>
>>   *From:* Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
>> *To:* Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>> *Cc:* vision2020 at moscow.com
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 20, 2013 2:33 PM
>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>
>>  The problem does not seem at all insurmountable.
>>
>> Problem, person(s) force entry to ones home without invitation.
>>
>> Solution. Point weapon in general direction of intruder and request
>> (insist) they leave.
>>
>> Outcome. They comply or they do not.
>>
>> Compliance equals positive resolution to problem.
>>
>> Noncompliance results in negative outcome for intruder.
>>
>> The real problem stems from not having the proper tools to affect the
>> desired outcome.
>>
>> g
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>    The problem of dealing with intruders involves sometimes a dangerous
>> lack of information.
>>
>> Is the intruder armed?
>>
>> Is there more than one?
>>
>> What are the intentions of of the intruder?
>>
>> Who is the intruder?  Is she/he someone known?  What is the relevant
>> history of the intruder?
>>
>> Are there effective/non-lethal ways of neutralizing the intruder?
>>
>> How can those intruded upon calculate the the risk to themselves, and
>> decide upon the action to be taken?
>>
>>
>> w.
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 12:00 PM, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com
>> > wrote:
>>
>>  These are empirically claims. Could be that pulling out a gun increases
>> your risk. It depends on a lot of factors.
>>
>> The big question is: does the potential for help outweigh the risk of
>> harm?
>>
>> And I hate to tell you that in a region with a low incidence of gun
>> violence, the answer is 'No.' Paul's weapons are more likely to cause him
>> harm than they are to protect him.
>>
>> On Feb 20, 2013, at 8:05 AM, Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>   Once "he" becomes aware of said gun it becomes a powerful deterrent to
>> staying in your house much less helping himself to your belongings or
>> continued good health.
>>
>> g
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 6:56 AM, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>  This is what listening to pop music can do to you!
>>
>> Paul: If he's in your house, then the gun was not a deterrent.
>>
>> On Feb 20, 2013, at 6:12 AM, Sunil Ramalingam <
>> sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>  But not in a judgmental way. I'm too busy singing to put anybody down.
>>
>> sr
>>
>>   From: jampot at roadrunner.com
>> To: sunilramalingam at hotmail.com
>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>> Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2013 06:02:11 -0800
>>
>> Now you're just monkeeing around.
>>
>> g
>>
>>  *From:* Sunil Ramalingam <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com>
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 19, 2013 11:07 PM
>> *Cc:* vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>
>> The premise of your post was that he was breaking into homes when people
>> were there. Now you're inventing his motive to kill you. No, if he saw your
>> face, he'd be a believer, not a killer.
>>
>>
>> Sunil
>>
>>   Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 22:56:57 -0800
>> From: godshatter at yahoo.com
>> To: sunilramalingam at hotmail.com
>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>
>>
>> It didn't say he was.  If he did, though, I'd want to be able to protect
>> myself if he ran across me in a home he thought was empty and he got it
>> through his head that I had to die because I'd seen his face.  Or maybe
>> he's desperate, and now he's willing to try hitting a house that is
>> occupied but looks like he could rob it regardless.
>>
>> It's a tool of preparedness.  I'd rather not assume that he's harmless if
>> he's breaking into houses and robbing them.  If my assumption is wrong, I
>> could die.  I'd rather not throw away my chance at survival because "OMG!
>> Guns are bad!"
>>
>> It doesn't mean, by the way, that I'd just shoot this guy for breaking
>> into my house.  But a loaded weapon is a good deterrent, and if it turns
>> out my life is at stake, I'd rather have a gun than a shoe I could throw at
>> him, or whatever I happened to have at hand.
>>
>> This isn't rocket science.  Be prepared.  It's the good old Boy Scout
>> motto.   I also have a smoke detector and a fire extinguisher.
>>
>> Don't let the "guns are killing our kids!" narrative drive your views.
>>
>> Paul
>>
>> On 02/19/2013 10:43 PM, Sunil Ramalingam wrote:
>>
>>  Paul,
>>
>> Where does it say he's breaking into homes when people are in? I had a
>> lot of burglary cases, and my mistakenly charged clients were usually
>> alleged to have entered homes when no one was there. Lots easier to leave
>> with stuff that way, said the authorities.
>>
>> Sunil
>>
>>  Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 19:02:25 -0800
>> From: godshatter at yahoo.com
>> To: thansen at moscow.com
>> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Hmmm . . .
>>
>>
>> What's paranoid about locking up when you're out and being ready to
>> defend yourself when you're at home when there is a known burglar in the
>> area?  Being prepared is not the same thing as being paranoid.  If someone
>> is crazy enough to break into your home while you are there, you can go
>> ahead and classify that as a situation fraught with danger, in which case
>> having some means to protect yourself might be called for.  There are
>> plenty of reasonable scenarios where a would-be burglar happens upon a
>> member of the household when he thought the place was empty that could end
>> up very badly for the person he stumbled upon.  If the burglar knew you
>> were at home and invaded the home anyway, then you've definitely got a
>> problem if you are happily unarmed.
>>
>> Better to have that gun when you need it than not.  If guns frighten you,
>> which I find hard to believe because of your military background, then at
>> least pick up a good aluminum baseball bat.
>>
>> Do you think I'm paranoid because I keep a set of jumper cables in my
>> trunk in case my battery dies and I need a jump from a kind stranger?  Are
>> you one of those people that joyously flit from situation to situation
>> relying on the gods to keep you out of trouble?
>>
>> Paul
>>
>> On 02/19/2013 01:18 PM, Tom Hansen wrote:
>>
>> <ATT00001>
>>
>> Paranoia . . . self-destroya.
>>
>> Seeya round town, Moscow, because . . .
>>
>> "Moscow Cares"
>> http://www.moscowcares.com/
>>
>>  Tom "Proud to be a Filthy Liberal Scum" Hansen
>> Moscow, Idaho
>>
>> "There's room at the top they are telling you still
>> But first you must learn how to smile as you kill
>> If you want to be like the folks on the hill."
>>
>> - John Lennon
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>> --
>> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
>> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
>>
>>
>>
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>>  serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
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>>
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>> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>>               http://www.fsr.net/
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>> =======================================================
>>
>>  ------------------------------
>>
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>>  serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>>                http://www.fsr.net
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>> =======================================================
>>
>> =======================================================
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>> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>>                http://www.fsr.net
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>>
>


-- 
Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
art.deco.studios at gmail.com
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