[Vision2020] In Search Of - The Coming Ice Age

Mon Feb 11 21:24:08 PST 2013

Sorry, I'm just sensitive to what I think of as the group-think that is 
happening.  Have you ever heard the old Japanese saying "the nail that 
sticks out will get hammered down"?  That's how I feel whenever I bring 
up this subject.  If I even hint that I might be thinking something that 
is what I think of as "off-message", I'm a nail that is sticking out 
that just *has* to be hammered down.

I've been speaking my mind and coming at things from an unusual 
perspective all my life.  There are very few subjects that I've run 
across that are quite like this.  There are a lot of subjects that 
people won't entertain, but that just ends up with no conversation 
happening.  There are lots of subjects that I don't make traction on 
because the people I argue with are set in their views, but they end up 
just content to let me beat against their defenses futilely.  There are 
lots of subjects where the majority disagrees with me, but they 
eventually just end up ignoring me, happy in their majority.  Not this 
subject.  I have to be hammered back down or die trying.  There appears 
to be no middle ground.

If I didn't keep seeing holes in the curtain, I guess it wouldn't be a 
problem.  But I do.  I'm not saying the whole thing is bogus, just that 
there is too much confidence where there is too little actual real-world 
validation.

Paul

On 02/11/2013 08:07 PM, Ron Force wrote:
> I chimed in on this because the meme from the climate skeptics has 
> been "But in the 70's you were predicting an ice age!" and I thought 
> that's what you were referencing. The AMA article was proving that 
> that outlook was a minority, which has since been shown to be wrong. 
> OK if you were just comparing it to winter storm Nemo. I have 
> comparable pictures from my daughter's yard in Maine this week. Sure 
> looks like an ice age.*:) happy
> Ron Force
> Moscow Idaho USA
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com>
> *To:* Ron Force <rforce2003 at yahoo.com>
> *Cc:* Moscow Vision2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, February 10, 2013 9:58 PM
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] In Search Of - The Coming Ice Age
>
>
> I didn't post this to get in an argument about global cooling.  I do 
> find it awfully strange that so much time and effort goes into trying 
> to show just how much consensus there is, as if that had any 
> importance in science.  If every single paper on climate change ever 
> published showed it was a problem, all except for one, and that one 
> paper fit the data better, then consensus would be wrong.  Now the 
> American Meteorological Society is spending it's time trying to show 
> that, no, really, we didn't really think that an ice age was coming, 
> honest.
>
> "Consensus" is a political term, right up there with "compromise", and 
> "mind-share".
>
> I don't remember aerosols being the reason given for ice ages.  Not 
> that I'm saying you're wrong, just that that's not how I remember it 
> being framed.  It had more to do with orbital cycles and/or the air in 
> the arctic warming enough to be able to carry more moisture and thus 
> more snow, if I remember correctly. But then, I haven't gone back to 
> the 70's literature and graded all the papers as "warming", "cooling", 
> or "neutral", so what do I know?
>
> I posted this video because it referenced the winter of 1977, which I 
> thought somebody might find interesting given the weather that is 
> happening in the North East.
>
> Paul
>
> Btw, I'm not a trained mother-f***ing climatologist; but then I doubt 
> anyone else on this list is either.
>
>
> On 02/10/2013 08:58 PM, Ron Force wrote:
>> Yes, there was sensational media hype about "the coming ice age". It 
>> was based on studies which showed increasing atmospheric aerosols, 
>> projected to quadruple over the coming decades. The clean Air Act of 
>> 1970 proved to be more efficient than expected, and aerosols declined 
>> by the late 70s . (It was all the fault of that socialist hippie 
>> Richard Nixon) However, studies have shown that the consensus 
>> even back then was for warming. Here's a study from the Journal of 
>> the American Meteorological Association:
>> http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1
>>
>> Here's a more popular summary:
>>
>> http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-intermediate.htm
>> Ron Force
>> Moscow Idaho USA
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> *From:* Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com> 
>> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>
>> *To:* Vision 2020 <Vision2020 at moscow.com> <mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com>
>> *Sent:* Sunday, February 10, 2013 5:22 PM
>> *Subject:* [Vision2020] In Search Of - The Coming Ice Age
>>
>> I happened to run across this today.  Not only does it confirm my 
>> memories that a coming ice age was being discussed in the late 70's / 
>> early 80's, but it also talks about the particularly tough winter of 
>> 1977 in the North Eastern part of the country.  I thought the 
>> comparison to the snowfall from the last few days in the same area 
>> might be interesting.
>>
>> Here is the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_861us8D9M
>>
>> Paul
>>
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