[Vision2020] Polls 'oversampling' Democrats?

[Tom Hansen]

Jus' don't ask me what any of this means, ok?

Seeya at the polls, Moscow, because . . .

"Moscow Cares"
http://www.MoscowCares.com
  
Tom Hansen
Moscow, Idaho

"We're a town of about 23,000 with 10,000 college students.  The college students are not very active in local elections (thank goodness!)."

- Dale Courtney (March 28, 2007)


 

On Nov 5, 2012, at 4:55 PM, Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com> wrote:

> Without a detailed, boring mathematical lecture suffice to say that the Central Tendency Theorem is frequently misinterpreted to mean a statement about the elements of a subsample rather than the properties of the subsample as a whole.
> 
> w.
> 
> On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM, Sue Hovey <suehovey at moscow.com> wrote:
>> Gee, I would have thought any pollster with any credentials at all would understand measures of central tendency.  Are you saying Central Tendency Theorem is something else again?
>>  
>> Sue H.
>> From: Art Deco
>> Sent: Monday, November 05, 2012 2:40 PM
>> To: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Polls 'oversampling' Democrats?
>>  
>> As someone who has acted as a consultant in years past to various polling attempts, I can safely say that almost every poll fails to meet the standards set for using the Central Tendency Theorem, the mathematical/statistical basis for accurate sampling.  Some pollsters do not seem to really understand it at  all.
>> 
>> The most obvious error is the lack of a random sample in these times due to several factors.  The problem is sometimes so bad that the degree of randomness is not even able to be reasonably predicted.  Therefore, the confidence value and range of error cannot be accurately calculated.
>> 
>> I haven't done it, but if someone were to Google several of the most recent, so-called major polls, I'd guess  there would be a range of predictions.
>> 
>> w.
>> 
>> On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 5:14 PM, Scott Dredge <scooterd408 at hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> Not surprisingly is that right wing radio / media has been complaining about liberal pollsters supposedly 'oversampling' Democratic voters so make it look like Obama is winning.  I'd think that polling is fairly accurate these days and if the pollsters track record is poor, they wouldn't get much credence or attention until they made the necessary adjustments to have their predictions more closely matched to results.  I'm looking forward to watching all the fun tomorrow night!
>>> 
>>> My can't miss prediction:  Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss.
>>> 
>>> -Scott
>>> 
>>> =======================================================
>>> List services made available by First Step Internet,
>>> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
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>> 
>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
>> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> =======================================================
>> List services made available by First Step Internet,
>> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>>                http://www.fsr.net
>>           mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
>> =======================================================
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> =======================================================
> List services made available by First Step Internet,
> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>               http://www.fsr.net
>          mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
> =======================================================
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