<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"></head><body dir="auto"><div><img src="cid:9037B16D-BBB1-4604-AEBF-117E1181CE38" alt="image.gif" id="9037B16D-BBB1-4604-AEBF-117E1181CE38" width="647" height="165"></div><div><img src="cid:299B7AAC-95FC-4CF1-8A14-2B88A6C348C9" alt="image.png" id="299B7AAC-95FC-4CF1-8A14-2B88A6C348C9" width="728" height="546"></div><div>Jus' don't ask me what any of this means, ok?<br><br><div>Seeya at the polls, Moscow, because . . .</div><div><br></div><div>"Moscow Cares"</div><div><a href="http://www.MoscowCares.com">http://www.MoscowCares.com</a></div><div> </div><div><div>Tom Hansen</div><div>Moscow, Idaho</div><div><br></div><div>"We're a town of about 23,000 with 10,000 college students. The college students are not very active in local elections (thank goodness!)."</div><div><br></div><div>- Dale Courtney (March 28, 2007)</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div> </div></div></div><div><br>On Nov 5, 2012, at 4:55 PM, Art Deco <<a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div>Without a detailed, boring mathematical lecture suffice to say that the Central Tendency Theorem is frequently misinterpreted to mean a statement about the elements of a subsample rather than the properties of the subsample as a whole.<br>
<br>w.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM, Sue Hovey <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:suehovey@moscow.com" target="_blank">suehovey@moscow.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
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<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Calibri'">
<div>Gee, I would have thought any pollster with any credentials at all would
understand measures of central tendency. Are you saying Central Tendency
Theorem is something else again?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div style="font-size:small;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none;font-family:'Calibri';display:inline;font-weight:normal">Sue
H. </div>
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<div><b>From:</b> <a title="art.deco.studios@gmail.com" href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">Art Deco</a> </div>
<div><b>Sent:</b> Monday, November 05, 2012 2:40 PM</div>
<div><b>To:</b> <a title="vision2020@moscow.com" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank">vision2020@moscow.com</a> </div>
<div><b>Subject:</b> Re: [Vision2020] Polls 'oversampling'
Democrats?</div></div></div>
<div> </div></div>
<div style="font-size:small;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none;font-family:'Calibri';display:inline;font-weight:normal"><div><div class="h5">As
someone who has acted as a consultant in years past to various polling attempts,
I can safely say that almost every poll fails to meet the standards set for
using the Central Tendency Theorem, the mathematical/statistical basis for
accurate sampling. Some pollsters do not seem to really understand it at
all.<br><br>The most obvious error is the lack of a random sample in these times
due to several factors. The problem is sometimes so bad that the degree of
randomness is not even able to be reasonably predicted. Therefore, the
confidence value and range of error cannot be accurately calculated.<br><br>I
haven't done it, but if someone were to Google several of the most recent,
so-called major polls, I'd guess there would be a range of
predictions.<br><br>w.<br><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 5:14 PM, Scott Dredge <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:scooterd408@hotmail.com" target="_blank">scooterd408@hotmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote style="BORDER-LEFT:#ccc 1px solid;MARGIN:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;PADDING-LEFT:1ex" class="gmail_quote">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">Not surprisingly is that right wing radio / media has been
complaining about liberal pollsters supposedly 'oversampling' Democratic
voters so make it look like Obama is winning. I'd think that polling is
fairly accurate these days and if the pollsters track record is poor, they
wouldn't get much credence or attention until they made the necessary
adjustments to have their predictions more closely matched to results.
I'm looking forward to watching all the fun tomorrow night!<br><br>My can't
miss prediction: Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.<span><font color="#888888"><br><br>-Scott<br></font></span></div></div><br>=======================================================<br>List
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the Palouse since
1994.<br>
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mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>=======================================================<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br>
<a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br><br><img src="cid:"><br><br>
</div></div><p>
</p><hr><div class="im">
=======================================================<br>List services made
available by First Step Internet,<br>serving the communities of the Palouse
since
1994.<br>
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mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>=======================================================</div><p></p></div></div></div></div>
</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br><a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br><br><img src="http://users.moscow.com/waf/WP%20Fox%2001.jpg"><br>
<br>
</div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div><span>=======================================================</span><br><span> List services made available by First Step Internet,</span><br><span> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.</span><br><span> <a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a></span><br><span> <a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com</a></span><br><span>=======================================================</span></div></blockquote></body></html>