[Vision2020] Well Chuck, Here We Go Again

[Paul Rumelhart]

Don't forget to factor in the good that a strong base-load of 
electricity has helped to provide, such as the design, manufacture, and 
operation of the computers we are using to converse and the myriad of 
devices that allow us to discuss this over the net.  I'm also fond of 
warmth in the winter time and the ability to cook food without an open fire.

I just wanted to comment on this, though: "Add a rigorous global program 
of birth control to this to reduce the demand for power (and many other 
resources soon to become scarce)."

What happens if someone doesn't agree with this idea and wants to have 
more kids than you or society or whoever deems is necessary?

Paul

On 03/27/2012 07:23 PM, Art Deco wrote:
> We do not know either the short term or long term effects of this 
> Japanese nuclear disaster yet, especially the long term effects of the 
> radiation leaked.  Chuck Kovis is right on target about his concerns.  
> Of particular concern is the mutations in sea life and their eventual 
> consequences globally on the oceanic environment and consequently on 
> the food chain that sustains much of life on earth.  The huge barrage 
> of flotsam approaching our coast (now about 300 miles off the coast of 
> Canada) is at this time another unknown in the amount and effect of 
> radiation.
>
> I have been in systems since the late 1960's.  In my opinion there is 
> no such thing as a fail-safe system or a perfectly secure system.  If 
> one wanted to spend a lot of time, I think both of these opinions 
> could be proven in a proof analogous to Godel's Proof.  There is no 
> way to eliminate human error or duplicity whether in design or 
> operation.  There is no way to prove that any design has provided for 
> all possible conditions, since there is yet to be designed any large 
> system which did not create new, unforeseen conditions.  There is no 
> way to correctly predict the force of future natural disasters, as you 
> illustrated in your comments below.
>
> The consequences of unconsidered, unimagined, or incorrectly predicted 
> errors in the design, construction, and operation of a nuclear power 
> plant, and the disposal of waste from that plant are are a risk, in my 
> opinion, that do not justify the expected reward.  I am skeptical for 
> reasons given above of any engineer's claim about ultimate safety of 
> nuclear power as compared to other methods of energy production.
>
> You and I are not likely to contribute to the debate about whether 
> nuclear is the only way to go.  In the 1980's I spent considerable 
> time and effort on this problem.  Things have changed since them, but 
> I still believe that a combination of solar energy, other alternate 
> sources, energy efficient designs, and conservation is the most 
> sensible and safest way to go.  Add a rigorous global program of birth 
> control to this to reduce the demand for power (and many other 
> resources soon to become scarce).
>
> w.
>
> On Tue, Mar 27, 2012 at 6:15 PM, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com 
> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     While TEPCO's handling of the situation was atrocious, I would
>     also like to point out that the Fukushima Daichi plant withstood a
>     9.0 earthquake followed by 40ft waves, which were more than twice
>     as high as their sea wall was built to withstand.  It was an act
>     of God (don't mean that literally) that was far on the outside of
>     what they even thought was possible in terms of likely occurrences.
>
>     I've only been able to find references to three deaths directly
>     attributed to the Fukushima disaster.  Two of them occurred during
>     the earthquake and tsunami, and one worker who was in his 60's
>     died of a sudden illness when cleaning around the reactors, but
>     they are unsure if it's radiation-related because he was exposed
>     to about as much radiation as a chest x-ray.
>
>     Anyway, compare and contrast to the coal mine fire that has been
>     burning underground for 50 years under Centralia, Pennsylvania. 
>     That wasn't caused by a natural disaster of epic proportions, it
>     was caused by someone throwing some hot ash in a landfill that
>     didn't have a fire-resistant clay barrier that was up-to-date. 
>     The fire is still burning today.
>
>     I just hate to see this incident used as the poster boy for the
>     anti-nuclear crowd.  Sure, if they'd doubled the height of the sea
>     wall, or had moved the emergency generator to higher ground
>     instead of trusting the sea walls to hold, the disaster might have
>     been mostly diverted.  This wasn't a Chernobyl, where human error
>     was the main cause of the disaster.
>
>     That having been said, there are newer designs out there that they
>     need to expedite testing on to ensure that even this level of a
>     disaster won't cause a containment breach.
>
>     If we want to get off of oil and coal any time soon, nuclear is
>     the only real way to go.  Eventually, they'll solve the energy
>     storage problems and make intermittent alternative energy sources
>     more viable.  In the meantime, though, nuclear is the only way to
>     go for alternative base-load generation.  Well, and hydro, but
>     there are only so many rivers we can dam up.
>
>     Paul
>
>
>     On 03/27/2012 08:37 AM, Art Deco wrote:
>>
>>
>>       Probe at Japan's crippled nuke plant finds fatal radiation levels
>>
>>     Published March 27, 2012 | Associated Press
>>
>>     advertisement
>>
>>     A new probe at Japan's crippled nuclear power plant has found
>>     fatal radiation levels and hardly any cooling water inside one of
>>     the reactors, renewing concerns about the plant's stability.
>>
>>     The operator of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant says an
>>     endoscopic examination Tuesday detected radiation levels up to 10
>>     times the fatal dose inside the No. 2 reactor's contain chamber,
>>     suggesting challenges ahead in shutting down the facility.
>>
>>     The probe also found the containment vessel had cooling water up
>>     to only about 2 feet from the bottom, far below the yards
>>     estimated when the government declared the plant's stability in
>>     December.
>>
>>     Plant workers also reported fresh leaks of contaminated water
>>     from a water treatment unit, some flowing into the ocean.
>>
>>
>>     http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/27/probe-at-japans-crippled-nuke-plant-finds-fatal-radiation-levels/
>>
>>
>>     -- 
>>     Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
>>     art.deco.studios at gmail.com <mailto:art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>>
>>
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>
>
>
>
> -- 
> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
> art.deco.studios at gmail.com <mailto:art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>
>
> =======================================================
>   List services made available by First Step Internet,
>   serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>                 http://www.fsr.net
>            mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
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