[Vision2020] Environmental and Remote Sensing Center: 2012 Arctic Ice Has Broken 2007 Low Extent

[Ted Moffett]

I read on Vision2020 that Romney's energy plan does not mention
climate change:
http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2012-August/085210.html
I checked on this and apparently it is true, according to this source:
http://news.yahoo.com/romney-reveals-energy-policy-doesnt-mention-climate-change-215404921.html

The GOP position on anthropogenic climate change is dangerously
anti-science and irresponsible!  What is incredible is that there are
significant conservative voices and organizations who at least in the
past have not indulged in this anti-science ideology on this issue, as
I indicated in this Vision2020 post from May 31, 2012:
[Vision2020] "Cultural Cognition", not Stupidity
http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2012-May/083328.html

But like on a number of issues, the Republican party has been hijacked
by those with an extreme and irrational agenda.

Regarding the subject heading of this post, note that the National
Snow Ice Data Center is not now declaring 2012 has broken the 2007
record low Arctic ice extent, though the Environmental and Remote
Sensing Center in Norway, wihch measures this variable differently,
has already declared that 2012 has set a new record low extent.

The article at the first website below indicates that the NSIDC
expects given their methods that in a week they will show a new record
low extent for 2012.

Arctic sea ice shrinks to record low, estimates show
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48766244/ns/us_news-environment/

NSIDC graph of Arctic ice from August 25, 2012:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
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For those attempting to discredit the credible peer reviewed science
indicating that human behavior, primarily the hundreds of billions of
tons of CO2 humanity has and is continuing to dump into our
atmosphere, is dramaticlly altering Earth's climate, with ominous
implications for human life, this new 2012 record low Arctic ice
extent is a major blow to the anthropopgenic climate change skeptics
position.  Many of these skeptics were predicting an Arctic ice
recovery was under way from the 2007 record low extent.

But the rapid and extensive changes in the Arctic, where temperatures
are increasing at the greatest rate on Earth, are arguably the most
important single area of scientific evidence.revealing the impacts of
anthropogenic climate change.

Of course this undeniable evidence can be explained by natural
factors, some skeptics will argue.  This is not a tenable position.
As the climate science website  skepticalscience.com phrases it, the
decline in Arctic sea ice is the "canary in the global warming coal
mine" which cannot be explained by natural factors, as the peer
reviewed science they present at the following website indicates:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=165

Text below from website above:

Arctic sea ice has aptly been termed a "canary in the global warming
coal mine," a sensitive indicator of climate change; because of its
importance as a diagnostic of global warming, climate change skeptics
struggle to explain the decline of Arctic sea ice as a natural
phenomenon.

Satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice extent reveal a rapid decline
over the past 30 years, particularly at the end of each year's annual
melt season.  The downward trend and the increasing difference between
seasons are in keeping with predictions of the effects of global
warming. As the Arctic warms, the volume of ice in the region
gradually declines, making it less likely ice will survive more than
one year and thus exposing more open water at the end of each melt
season.

As an explanation for the decline of Arctic sea ice, skeptics
hypothesize we're seeing the effects of natural cycles causing deep,
decades-long swings in Arctic ice coverage and volume. Lending
observational support for such cycles is much more difficult than
relying on direct observations of ice extent with contemporary
instruments. Still, thanks to ocean sediment cores and some other
physical clues left by past climate regimes we have reasonable insight
into past Arctic sea ice extent. Combining various information about
past climate behavior, we can better understand why changes in ice
coverage have occurred in past times, whether those natural variations
are happening today, and how those changes compare to today's sea ice
trend.

While it's true that natural variations of the climate have caused
significant changes in Arctic ice extent in the past, it's important
to note that such changes are not airtight arguments against
anthropogenic global warming causing today's loss of ice. After all,
events of the past do not describe newly identified influences by
human culture on today's climate. Indeed, comparisons between past and
present Arctic climate reveal different reasons for yesterday's and
today's Arctic sea ice changes and strongly suggest that today's
changes are largely anthropogenic ( Overpeck et al ).  Meanwhile,
analysis of several hundred indicators of past Arctic sea ice extent
tells us that recent losses appear to have no parallel in records
going back many thousands of years ( Polyak et al ).

The past 200 years offers an example of how natural and anthropogenic
influences on Arctic sea ice can be distinguished.  The Arctic appears
to have undergone an unusually cool period in the early 19th century,
certainly natural, with recovery to more normal conditions extending
into the 20th century leading to the warming we see today. Referring
to the graph above, we can see that after the earlier cool period sea
ice extent in the Arctic appears to have largely stabilized, later to
begin a steady decline in chorus with other emerging observations of
global warming such as increasing air and ocean temperatures. This
decline in ice extent is happening even though the causes for natural
recovery from the unusual cold of the 19th century are no longer in
play, while research strongly suggests these recent reductions in
Arctic sea ice are caused by a new, anthropogenic mechanism (
Johannessen et al ).

In sum, although natural factors have always influenced the state of
Arctic sea ice, research strongly suggests that today's decline is
driven by the novel influence of anthropogenic CO2 we've added to the
atmosphere and thus is unique in Earth's history.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett