[Vision2020] Historical Average Monthly Jan/Feb Moscow Hi/Lo Temperatures Compared to Actual for 2010

[Ted Moffett]

This has been a very dry and warm winter in Moscow, for the most part.  El
Nino is part of the reason.  When El Nino was announced in July 2009, I
posted to Vision2020 the following, though my strong wording, "Northwest
Climate Shift," has turned out to be more true than I would have guessed at
the time.  Vancouver B. C had the warmest January on record in 2010:
http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064999.html
[Vision2020] El Nino (ENSO) Announced July 9: Northwest Climate Shift

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I averaged the actual 2010 Moscow daily highs and lows for January and
February, double checked, and unless I made a mistake, below are the actual
average 2010 monthly high and low temperatures for Moscow, compared to the
historical average monthly temperatures, from weather.com data.

I have read in the peer reviewed climate science literature that due to
anthropogenic climate warming, night lows are increasing more than day
highs; and though I am not making a direct link between our local weather
this winter and human impacts on long term global climate trends, the Moscow
night lows for January and February 2010 were much higher than the
historical average than were the day highs.  January night lows were 7.6 F.
above the historical average (this is such a margin I wondered about my
math, but I re-checked carefully), double the 3.8 F. that day highs in
January exceeded the historical average.  Oddly, February night
lows averaged almost exactly twice the increase above the historical average
than the day highs, 2.86 F. above the historical average for the highs, 5.75
F. for the night lows.  If someone finds these figures inaccurate, please
correct!

>From the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full

Excerpt from article above indicating with sources that night low
temperatures are increasing more than day highs due to global warming:

Global mean surface air temperature increased by ≈0.5°C in the 20th century
and is projected to further increase by 1.5 to 4.5°C in this century
(9<http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-9>).
In the past century, daily minimum nighttime temperature increased at a
faster rate than daily maximum temperature in association with a steady
increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
(10<http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-10>,
11 <http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-11>).
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http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/achesandpains/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/83843

January average historical monthly high: 36 F. Actual 39.8 F.
January average historical monthly low: 23 F. Actual 30.6 F.

February average historical monthly high: 41 F. Actual 43.86 F.
February average historical monthly low: 27 F. Actual 32.75 F.

February 2010 precipitation was only .2 inch, surprisingly below the 2.52
inch historical average.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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