<div>This has been a very dry and warm winter in Moscow, for the most part. El Nino is part of the reason. When El Nino was announced in July 2009, I posted to Vision2020 the following, though my strong wording, "Northwest Climate Shift," has turned out to be more true than I would have guessed at the time. Vancouver B. C had the warmest January on record in 2010:</div>
<div><a href="http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064999.html">http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064999.html</a></div>
<div><font size="4">[Vision2020] El Nino (ENSO) Announced July 9: Northwest Climate Shift</font></div>
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<div>I averaged the actual 2010 Moscow daily highs and lows for January and February, double checked, and unless I made a mistake, below are the actual average 2010 monthly high and low temperatures for Moscow, compared to the historical average monthly temperatures, from <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://weather.com/" target="_blank">weather.com</a> data. </div>
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<div>I have read in the peer reviewed climate science literature that due to anthropogenic climate warming, night lows are increasing more than day highs; and though I am not making a direct link between our local weather this winter and human impacts on long term global climate trends, the Moscow night lows for January and February 2010 were much higher than the historical average than were the day highs. January night lows were 7.6 F. above the historical average (this is such a margin I wondered about my math, but I re-checked carefully), double the 3.8 F. that day highs in January exceeded the historical average. Oddly, February night lows averaged almost exactly twice the increase above the historical average than the day highs, 2.86 F. above the historical average for the highs, 5.75 F. for the night lows. If someone finds these figures inaccurate, please correct!</div>
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<div>From the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:</div>
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<div><font size="4">Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming</font></div>
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<div><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full">http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full</a></div>
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<div>Excerpt from article above indicating with sources that night low temperatures are increasing more than day highs due to global warming:</div>
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<div>Global mean surface air temperature increased by ≈0.5°C in the 20th century and is projected to further increase by 1.5 to 4.5°C in this century (<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-9" target="_blank">9</a>). In the past century, daily minimum nighttime temperature increased at a faster rate than daily maximum temperature in association with a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-10" target="_blank">10</a>, <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full#ref-11" target="_blank">11</a>). </div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/achesandpains/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/83843" target="_blank">http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/achesandpains/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/83843</a></div>
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<div>January average historical monthly high: 36 F. Actual 39.8 F.</div>
<div>January average historical monthly low: 23 F. Actual 30.6 F.</div>
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<div>February average historical monthly high: 41 F. Actual 43.86 F.</div>
<div>February average historical monthly low: 27 F. Actual 32.75 F.</div>
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<div>February 2010 precipitation was only .2 inch, surprisingly below the 2.52 inch historical average.</div>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>