[Vision2020] Jana Kemp to Run for ID Gov as Independent

[Tom Hansen]

Courtesy of today's (July 14, 2009) Spokesman Review at

(PDF file)
http://media.spokesman.com/documents/2009/07/Document1___________.pdf

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Kemp takes a long shot from half-court
By Marty Trillhaase

Jana Kemp has left the Idaho Republican primary election behind.

By declaring herself an independent candidate for governor, the former
one-term Ada County legislator is betting many of her fellow Republicans
will do the same.

It's a long shot. Unorthodox challenges typically spring from the right,
not the center. But year after year, Idahoans tell pollsters their top
priorities are education, the economy and the environment. That puts them
out of step with a Republican governor and legislators who cut school
budgets, have few economic development ideas beyond cutting corporate
taxes and believe the only good wolf is a dead one.

Since 1994, the Republican supermajority has owned Idaho, making the GOP
primary in the spring the decisive election. Few voters participate in
those contests. Those who do tend to be conservative activists. Over time,
these partisans have taken their party and state government increasingly
to the right - and they intend to drift even farther in that direction by
closing the primary to all but registered Republicans.

In that setting, a moderate like Kemp has no hope. So she's running an
insurgency in the general election, presumably against Gov. Butch Otter
who has not formally announced whether he'll seek another term.

Consider her logic:

- GOP dominance at the polls is showing signs of wear. When Dirk
Kempthorne first ran for governor in 1998, he carried 68 percent. That
margin dropped to 56 percent when he ran for re-election in 2002. Four
years later, even in the midst of an economic boom and after his party
delivered property tax relief, Otter won office only by 52.7 percent.

- Democrats have picked up a handful of House seats, mostly by defeating
Republicans in Boise.

- Last year, Walt Minnick became Idaho's first Democratic congressman
since 1994.

Only one in four Idahoans consider themselves Democratic. So if Democrats
are winning elections, they're attracting disaffected Republicans.

What's likely to resonate with Idaho voters? Otter's record of cutting
public school budgets and dealing ineffectively with the Legislature? Or a
moderate who sees education as a key to economic competitiveness in this
young century? During her single term earlier in this decade, Kemp broke
with Republican leadership on issues such as high school reform and
openness in government.

The smart money says Kemp gets thumped next year, especially if the Idaho
GOP rides the coattails of a nationalized referendum on Barack Obama and
the Democratic Congress.

But what else does the Idaho GOP offer these voters? Suppose moderate
Republicans and independents seize on Kemp's candidacy as a protest vote.
Even if she doesn't prevail, winning a percentage large enough to
embarrass the Republican establishment would change the conversation.

This is unusual terrain for a moderate. But if you're a center-right voter
who feels alienated from the Republican Party, what else can you do?

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Seeya round town, Moscow,

Tom Hansen
Moscow, Idaho
Just another bleedin'-heart liberal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Od3c6zBXc6M

"The Pessimist complains about the wind, the Optimist expects it to change
and the Realist adjusts his sails."

- Unknown