[Vision2020] Polar Amplification Predicted by Early Climate Modeling Programs: Now Well Verified

[Ted Moffett]

Joe Campbell wrote:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-April/062709.html

It isn't as if you could test global warming anyway. Any tests would have to
be done on
some aspect of the theory and I imagine such tests are being done.

Joe Campbell

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Do you wish to retract your statement, given your rather puzzling assertion
that "It isn't as if you could test global warming anyway." assuming
you accept the validity of the scientific information presented below from
NOAA on the scientific efforts regarding "testing" global warming theory,
that have been ongoing for decades?  There is a compelling reason that the
IPCC issues definitive statements regarding the future impacts
of anthropogenic climate change:  The theory *has* *been tested* for decades.
I am astonished that an academic of your standing would write such an
irresponsible statement about one of the most important scientific issues of
our time.

Ted Moffett
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NOAA 200th Top Tens: Breakthroughs: The First *Climate
Model*<http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html>

Testing the Notion of Global Warming

Two scientists from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Drs. Syukuro
Manabe and Kirk Bryan, published the model results in 1969. By the 1970s,
general circulation models emerged as a central tool in climate research.
Dr. Manabe and Mr. Dick Wetherald later used this original model to simulate
the first three-dimensional experiment to test the notion of global
warming.  Their groundbreaking results were published in 1975.
-------------------

The First Climate Model

http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html
--------------------
[image: computing infrastructure that can hold 2,000
terabytes]<http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/GFDL_HPCC.html>

To accommodate growth in the size of model outputs, NOAA has invested in a
computing infrastructure that can hold 2,000 terabytes (or two million
gigabytes) of data.  With this capacity, scientists now have the ability to
store global climate data on a weekly or even daily basis to investigate
climate change.
-------------------
[image: Observed trends in surface air temperature from
1960-1990]<http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/Obstrends.html>

Computer models have long predicted that the climate change will affect
Arctic and subarctic regions earlier and more dramatically than other parts
of the world.  Recent studies show marked increases in temperature and many
other climate variables across much of the far north. Observed trends in
surface air temperature from 1960-1990 (shown above in degrees centigrade)
demonstrate "polar amplification,” with largest temperature increases (shown
in red and magenta) occurring near the North Pole.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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