[Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

Wed Oct 24 10:08:10 PDT 2007

I have a cousin in the fire area, and this is an interesting take on things from an insider.  BDL

  Dear Aunt Ann,

  It's been a scary few days. The fires started over the weekend to the east of us along with wild and strong Santa Ana winds that blow hot and dry from the desert and were pushing the fires from the mountain toward the houses along the coast. 

  Our golden retriever was our early alert system. She came upstairs to wake us up on Saturday night. The wind was wild outside and she must have been able to smell the smoke even though we couldn't yet. In the morning we heard on the radio that there were some wildfires burning out in the mountains but that seems to happen regularly here in October. We haven't had rain since April and everything is very dry. Sunday was mostly business as usual. The skies were very clear. We could see some smoke and off and on we checked the news to see where the fires were.

  On Monday Bob went to work and the kids went off to school even though we could smell the smoke in the air.  After they left I went out to get a full tank of gas and to get some groceries, just to be safe. By 11am Carolyn called to say that there were ashes falling at the high school and that they had turned off the air conditioners (because they were sucking too much smoke into the building) and shut all the windows and doors. Lizzie emailed me from class that they weren't going to let them outside for "nutrition break".  

  When they decided to release the kids from school at noon I got an automated call at home letting me know that I should come pick them up. There were emails from the schools and hourly updates on their websites. Technology used to its best advantage. We had plenty of volunteers checking IDs and writing release notes at each school. I waited about 2 minutes in a line before I got a note to pick up Robert and waited only 5 minutes for them to call Lizzie up over the loud speaker. Carolyn called on her cell phone to say that I could release her by calling a phone number in the office and that she could get a ride home. It was all very orderly.

  Then everything started moving very fast. We decided to be prepared and on Monday afternoon we packed up our treasures and a few overnight things and put the scrapbooks in the car and waited to hear if we'd be evacuated. We took turns staying up all night watching the news as the Harris Fire moved closer and closer to our town. The wind was very strong and we tacked a blanket over the front door to help keep smoke and ashes out when someone came in the door.

  They evacuated houses at the north-east part of Chula Vista and we understand that a few homes were lost there. (Carolyn's friend who lives out there but hadn't been evacuated was sending her photos through AIM) We have several friends from girl scouts and church who were evacuated from the Chula Vista and Bonita areas. Our elementary school principal was evacuated as were two of Carolyn's teachers. Bob has several friends from work who were evacuated in other parts of the county and we've heard that 4 people he knows from work lost their homes. 

  Yesterday was the turning point, the wind was not as wild and there were lots of helicopters and airplanes dropping water and fire retardant on the fire all day. About mid-afternoon they got the fire in Chula Vista under control. 

  The air is awful outside, smoke and falling ash that looks like snow! The kids are going to be off school till Monday and we're stuck inside. We are lucky to still have electricity, water and phone service. They've got plenty to do with the computer and TV and a pile of books and DVDs from the library. Everyone they know is on AIM and Myspace so we're all taking turns at the computer.

  Once the fires are out we need to wait till all the ash settles and then start the cleanup. Right now it's still too smoky to open windows or doors. We held our breath and ran to the car last night to go out to get a newspaper (for a souvenir) and check on Bob's parents. They are 95 and 90 and still living on their own. His dad had plans to evacuate in his 60's era VW camper! Making the best of a bad situation, Bob has been scooping up cups of ash from the drifts to use in "commutative glazes" for his pottery.

  Actually things ran very smoothly, considering the chaos that we could have had evacuating 500,000 from their homes. They used something they are calling a "reverse 911 call", the emergency dispatchers place automated calls to a whole neighborhood with evacuation instructions. Between computers and cell phones and television coverage we felt very informed and calm.

  We're such a hospitality town that people who weren't affected were all happy to volunteer and it sounds like a party going on at the stadium where they have the majority of the evacuees. (So different from the reports from New Orleans during Katrina.) They are having yoga classes, there are clowns and storytellers entertaining the kids, they are giving free massages and showing movies on the big screen and they have free wi-fi for people who brought their laptops. Carolyn said she either wanted to volunteer or evacuate because it sounded like such fun! They actually told people to please stop bringing donations because they have plenty of everything.  

  It's not all good news. Lots of people have lost their homes. There are still a few parts of the county where they are fighting the fires. This morning it sounds like they've closed the main freeway up at Camp Pendleton on the far north because one of the back fires they had lit got away from them and crossed the freeway. They are still fighting to contain the fire in a few spots up in the mountains. Our girl scout camps are close to that one and there are many rural homes and ranches that are in danger, but the fires that were here in Chula Vista and threatening the houses in urban San Diego are out.

  So that's the story from our part of the world. At the worst point the Harris Fire was 5 miles away from our house. Right now it's morning and the sun is rising with an eerie pink, purple and yellow glow. The sky is so full of gunk that it's making a magnificent sunrise.

  Love Deb

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Ted Moffett 
  To: Moscow Vision 2020 
  Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 11:44 PM
  Subject: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

  All-

  Given what is happening in California...
  ---------------
  THOMAS W. SWETNAM 

  tswetnam at ltrr.arizona.edu 

  http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~tswetnam 

     Co-author of the piece "Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity" in Science magazine, Swetnam is director of the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Dendrochronology at the University of Arizona. He said today: "Increasing numbers of large forest fires and total area burned in the western United States are significantly correlated with warming and drying trends. ... There is a clear upward trend in the area burned and numbers of large forest fires in the western U.S., especially since the mid-1980s." 
     This Sunday, Swetnam was interviewed on "60 Minutes," where he said: "As the spring is arriving earlier because of warming conditions, the snow on these high mountain areas is melting and running off. So the logs and the branches and the tree needles all can dry out more quickly and have a longer time period to be dry. And so there's a longer time period and opportunity for fires to start. ... We're dealing with a period of climate, in terms of temperature and humidity and drought, that's different than anything people have seen in our lifetimes." 

  Swetnam's piece in Science is at:

  http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml 
  "60 Minutes" "The Age Of Mega-Fires" segment from Sunday is available on video:

  http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml 

  and transcript: 

  http://heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?ID=6671&Method=Full 

  -----------------
  Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

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