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<DIV><FONT face=Arial>I have a cousin in the fire area, and this is an
interesting take on things from an insider. BDL</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
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<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Dear Aunt
Ann,</SPAN></FONT><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">It's been a scary few days. The
fires started over the weekend to the east of us along with wild and
strong <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Santa Ana</st1:place></st1:City> winds that blow hot and dry from
the desert and were pushing the fires from the mountain toward the houses
along the coast. </SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Our golden retriever was our early
alert system. She came upstairs to wake us up on Saturday night. The wind was
wild outside and she must have been able to smell the smoke even though we
couldn't yet. In the morning we heard on the radio that there were some
wildfires burning out in the mountains but that seems to happen regularly here
in October. We haven't had rain since April and everything is very dry. Sunday
was mostly business as usual. The skies were very clear. We could see some
smoke and off and on we checked the news to see where the fires
were.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On Monday Bob went to work
and the kids went off to school even though we could smell the smoke in the
air. After they left I went out to get a full tank of gas and to
get some groceries, just to be safe. By 11am Carolyn called to say that
there were ashes falling at the high school and that they had turned off
the air conditioners (because they were sucking too much smoke into the
building) and shut all the windows and doors. Lizzie emailed me from class
that they weren't going to let them outside for "nutrition
break". </SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">When they decided to release the
kids from school at noon I got an automated call at home letting me
know that I should come pick them up. There were emails from the schools and
hourly updates on their websites. Technology used to its best advantage. We
had plenty of volunteers checking IDs and writing release notes at each
school. I waited about 2 minutes in a line before I got a note to pick up
Robert and waited only 5 minutes for them to call Lizzie up over the loud
speaker. Carolyn called on her cell phone to say that I could
release her by calling a phone number in the office and that she could get a
ride home. It was all very orderly.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Then everything started moving
very fast. We decided to be prepared and on Monday afternoon we packed up
our treasures and a few overnight things and put the scrapbooks in the car and
waited to hear if we'd be evacuated. We took turns staying up all night
watching the news as the Harris Fire moved closer and closer to our town. The
wind was very strong and we tacked a blanket over the front door to help keep
smoke and ashes out when someone came in the
door.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">They evacuated houses at the
north-east part of <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Chula
Vista</st1:place></st1:City> and we understand that a few homes were lost
there. (Carolyn's friend who lives out there but hadn't been
evacuated was sending her photos through AIM) We have several
friends from girl scouts and church who were evacuated from the <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Chula Vista</st1:place></st1:City> and Bonita
areas. Our elementary school principal was evacuated as were two of Carolyn's
teachers. Bob has several friends from work who were evacuated
in other parts of the county and we've heard that 4 people he
knows from work lost their
homes. </SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Yesterday was the turning
point, the wind was not as wild and there were lots of helicopters and
airplanes dropping water and fire retardant on the fire all day. About
mid-afternoon they got the fire in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Chula Vista</st1:place></st1:City> under control.
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The air is awful outside, smoke
and falling ash that looks like snow! The kids are going to be off school till
Monday and we're stuck inside. We are lucky to still have electricity,
water and phone service. They've got plenty to do with the computer and
TV and a pile of books and DVDs from the library. Everyone they know is
on AIM and Myspace so we're all taking turns at the
computer.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Once the fires are out we
need to wait till all the ash settles and then start the cleanup. Right
now it's still too smoky to open windows or doors. We held our breath and ran
to the car last night to go out to get a newspaper (for a souvenir) and check
on Bob's parents. They are 95 and 90 and still living on their own. His dad
had plans to evacuate in his 60's era VW camper! Making the best of a bad
situation, Bob has been scooping up cups of ash from the drifts to use in
"commutative glazes" for his pottery.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Actually things ran very smoothly,
considering the chaos that we could have had evacuating 500,000 from their
homes. They used something they are calling a "reverse 911 call",
the emergency dispatchers place automated calls to a whole
neighborhood with evacuation instructions. Between computers and cell
phones and television coverage we felt very informed and
calm.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">We're such a hospitality town that
people who weren't affected were all happy to volunteer and it sounds
like a party going on at the stadium where they have the majority of the
evacuees. (So different from the reports from <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:place></st1:City> during Katrina.) They are
having yoga classes, there are clowns and storytellers entertaining the
kids, they are giving free massages and showing movies on the big screen and
they have free wi-fi for people who brought their laptops. Carolyn said she
either wanted to volunteer or evacuate because it sounded like such fun! They
actually told people to please stop bringing donations because they have
plenty of everything. </SPAN></FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">It's not all good news. Lots of
people have lost their homes. There are still a few parts of the county where
they are fighting the fires. This morning it sounds like they've closed
the main freeway up at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">Camp</st1:PlaceType> <st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">Pendleton</st1:PlaceName></st1:place> on the far north because one
of the back fires they had lit got away from them and crossed the freeway.
They are still fighting to contain the fire in a few spots up in the
mountains. Our girl scout camps are close to that one and there are many rural
homes and ranches that are in danger, but the fires that were here in
<st1:City w:st="on">Chula Vista</st1:City> and threatening the houses in
urban <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San
Diego</st1:place></st1:City> are out.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">So that's the story from our part
of the world. At the worst point the Harris Fire was 5 miles away from our
house. Right now it's morning and the sun is rising with an eerie pink,
purple and yellow glow. The sky is so full of gunk that it's making a
magnificent sunrise.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Love
Deb</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=starbliss@gmail.com href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">Ted Moffett</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">Moscow Vision 2020</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 23, 2007 11:44
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest
Wildfire Activity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New">All-</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New">Given what is happening in
California...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New">---------------</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New">THOMAS W. SWETNAM </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A href="mailto:tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu"><FONT
face="Courier New">tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu</FONT></A><FONT
face="Courier New"> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~tswetnam"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~tswetnam</FONT></A><FONT
face="Courier New"> </FONT></DIV><FONT face="Courier New">
<DIV><BR> Co-author of the piece "Warming and Earlier Spring
Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity" in Science magazine, Swetnam
is director of the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Dendrochronology at
the University of Arizona. He said today: "Increasing numbers of large forest
fires and total area burned in the western United States are significantly
correlated with warming and drying trends. ... There is a clear upward trend
in the area burned and numbers of large forest fires in the western U.S.,
especially since the mid-1980s." <BR> This Sunday, Swetnam was
interviewed on "60 Minutes," where he said: "As the spring is arriving earlier
because of warming conditions, the snow on these high mountain areas is
melting and running off. So the logs and the branches and the tree needles all
can dry out more quickly and have a longer time period to be dry. And so
there's a longer time period and opportunity for fires to start. ... We're
dealing with a period of climate, in terms of temperature and humidity and
drought, that's different than anything people have seen in our lifetimes."
<BR> </DIV>
<DIV>Swetnam's piece in Science is at:</DIV>
<DIV></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><A
href="javascript:ol('http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml');"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml</FONT></A><FONT
face="Courier New"> <BR>"60 Minutes" "The Age Of Mega-Fires" segment from
Sunday is available on video:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml</FONT></A><FONT
face="Courier New"> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New">and transcript: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?ID=6671&Method=Full"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?ID=6671&Method=Full</FONT>
</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-----------------</DIV>
<DIV>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</DIV>
<P>
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