[Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller

Tue May 29 14:31:34 PDT 2007

It's rather difficult to take all the indignation and self righteousness expressed by a certain element on this list as seriously as one might otherwise. Why is Sitler singled out for all the condemnation (not that he doesn't deserve every ounce of it) when there has there been nary a peep when it comes to others who have committed the very same (or worse) crime in this county and also still reside here. Where is your "legitimate fears" when it comes to Michael Ashcraft, Christopher Busting, and Mike Brazington? Why are you not so vocally "concerned" about Robert Buckingham, Frank Burkgart, and Harvey Hamilton? What about the likelihood of reoffense for Michael Hardway, Dennis Hendrix, Wayne Jacobs, Knute Klingler, and Kevin Osterberg? Could it be that they get no Vision 2020 scrutiny and castigation because to do so would not further an agenda? I'm afraid that the pious blather that comes from History Daddy and his little band of likeminded friends would be far easier to stomach were it not so blatantly just another cynical means to an end.

g
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: keely emerinemix 
  To: Glenn Schwaller ; Bob Herodotus ; vision2020 at moscow.com 
  Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 7:52 AM
  Subject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller

  Somewhere between five and 98 percent of all Visionaires who read the post below detect an undercurrent of  snarling, manly arrogance.  I'm guessing that the two percent were raising their Sabbath glasses to him.

  Either way, his attempts to mask his disdain for his questioner by quoting the gamut of statistics that might address the Sitler situation fell flat.  I'm afraid indifference to the genuine concern expressed by other Visionaires and disdain for them for expressing it leaked out like a robust Syrah in cloudy, cracked stemware.

  I'll try it the simple, albeit shrill and insistent, manner Schwaller by now knows me for:

  Can you possibly grasp the anger this community has toward Sitler and those who dealt with him, and can you understand the legitimate fears of those concerned that he's out of jail?  

  keely

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    Date: Mon, 28 May 2007 14:18:47 -0700
    From: vpschwaller at gmail.com
    To: bherodotus at yahoo.com; vision2020 at moscow.com
    Subject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller

    Visionaries and Mr Herodotus,

    Thank you for the invitation to "return" but I never really left.  I was simply a bit busy over the past few days taking advantage of the weather break to plant the begonias, nasturtiums, and geraniums.

    I'll attempt to answer your questions, but I do so assuming you are being genuine and not disingenuous in your query.  I mention this only because another visionary has questioned "the truth about (your) opinions", that this individual "Doesn't believe I'll do that" (accept the truth of my opinions), "thank you very much.", then proceeds to demand the answer to 3 additional questions.

    So, on to your questions.  These are important, timely questions that deserve answers.  However, I don't believe I can give you full nor adequate answers to any of them.  I don't know that definitive answers exist, however one can find just about any answer one wants to fit one's position.  That being said:

    "1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?"

    I don't believe a thorough statistical study has been done for over 10 years.  So keeping that in mind, according to the U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics, within 3 years of release from incarceration, a little more than 5 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for another sex crime.  If one looks at ALL crimes committed, about 40 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for other offenses.

    Within this three year period, 3.5 percent of convicted sex offenders were convicted again for a sex crime, 24 percent convicted for new crimes, and about 40 percent are imprisoned again because of a parole or probation violation.

    However, if you're Joan Opyr, in an article she published not quite a year ago, she quotes a 75% recidivism rate.

    The USDJ study also looked at the relationship between offenders and victims and reported that overall, 46 percent of the victims were a family member.  A 2005 study by the National Crime Victimization Survey reports that 73 percent of sexual assaults were known by the victim: 38 percent were a friend or acquaintance, 28 percent were involved in an "intimate" relationship, and 7 percent were another relative.    

    An NPR story in 2005 offered a 98 percent recidivism rate over a 25 year period, with a 60 percent likelihood of offending again within 5 years under the best treatment available., there is a 60% occurrence of re-offence within five years. The story also mentions that the offender in most sexual abuse cases is a family member or friend of the family  (97 percent for victims under the age of 6, and 95 percent of those between the ages 6 and 12).

    So, somewhere between 5 and 95 percent?

    "2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?"

    Again, I have no concrete statistics.  There is apparently some information on Mr Sitler's repeated violations before he was discovered (I'm sure Mr Hansen can give you that number off the top of his head).  The numbers seem to run from one to dozens over decades for catholic priests.  And in Portugal, a driver and gardener was accused of molesting children at the school where he was worked.  After questioning and examining more than 600 children, over 125 were reported to have been victimized by this individual.

    So, somewhere between 1 and more than 125? 

    "3,  Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?"

    Quite frankly, I sense an undercurrent of sarcasm in this last question, but hey . . .

    Maybe you can ask me how many polar bears, perched on their ever-diminishing slab of ice, are going to starve tonight?

    Well, obviously I can't give you the answers you would like to hear.  I doubt even Mr Sitler himself would know, given the worst possible case, what would be the answers to those questions.  However, if you refer back to the replies to Question 1, you may find some answers of sorts in there.

    I'd like to think I have the community's, but perhaps not that of starving polar bear's, interests at heart.

    Schwaller

    "You can always see it commin', but you can never stop it."
      --Michael Timmins

    On 5/28/07, Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com > wrote:
      Visionaries and Mr. Schwaller,

      I personally invite Mr. Schwaller to return to this forum because I for one found his posts both provocative and enlightening. Hard facts about serial pedophiles are difficult to ascertain and I commend him for sharing his knowledge of this unseemly subject with us so that we as a community can be better prepared to address a predator in our midst.

      With this in mind, I have a couple of questions for Mr. Schwaller.

      1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?

      2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?

      3. Finally, given your familiarity with Steven Sitler's case file, can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?

      I believe that these are reasonable questions for a community to ask and I believe that you have our community's best interests at heart.

      Thank you,

      Herodotus

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