[Vision2020] (Hillary is a Shoe In) speaking of politics....
Paul Rumelhart
godshatter at yahoo.com
Sat Aug 25 21:42:38 PDT 2007
I was curious, so I did a small amount of research. According to the
Census Bureau, roughly 111,000,000 people voted in the 2000 presidential
election. The document stated that the 111 million number was 60% of
the eligible voting population, which would put that population at 185
million.
That means that there were 74 million people that did not vote in that
election that were eligible. The popular vote (which Al Gore won)
differed by 543,816, or 0.7% of the 74 million people that did not vote
in that election. Obviously, more than the popular vote is needed or Al
Gore would be President, but I'm just trying to make the point that a
small percentage of the non-voting public can make a huge difference.
More people didn't vote than either candidate won in total number of
votes (Al Gore's numbers being the highest at 51,003,926) by a wide margin.
Now, if you have a large non-voting population and can excite them to
come out of the woodwork at the next election you could really throw a
wrench in the works. I don't have numbers for non-voters that spend
much of their time online, but I imagine the number is fairly high.
Paul
Donovan Arnold wrote:
> Except in extreme cases, voter turnout doesn't really change the
> election results. In our presidential election, only about 8 states
> are swing states, and of those it doesn't really matter if both Ohio
> and Florida swing the same way.
>
> Political studies have shown that turnout rarely impacts outcome of an
> election.
>
> You can rig elections with voter machines. However, it would have to
> be a close race in the first place for nobody not to notice. Anything
> more than a 1.5% change and it would be detected. You would have to
> spread the numbers out so each district was bumped up a tiny amount
> per precinct.
>
> If political parities would change things so that the numbers were not
> so close, say trying to win by 5-10 points instead of .005%, Diebolt
> and other vote changers could not be so powerful.
>
> I also don't think voter turnout is that low. If we have 300 million
> people, count out 125 million for being illegal aliens, criminals,
> under age, and mental or physically unable, we have only about 175
> million people that can vote. Of the 175 million that can, nearly 100
> million do register and vote. That is about 57% percent of the
> population voting regularly in elections where their vote really
> doesn't count. But people also misunderstand, that it isn't 57% voting
> and 43% not. It is more like 25% never voting and 75% vote, but not
> all the time. Some people only vote in Presidential elections, some
> only vote in local elections, some only vote for a person they know,
> or really feel passionate about, some vote but only when it is
> convenient for them to do so. But I think, about 75% of people that
> can vote, do vote, at some point.
>
> 25% of the population realizes though, that your vote, out 100 million
> doesn't really matter in a presidential election, so why wait three
> hours in line to vote, and burn $20 in gas and other expenses to cast
> it? Votes matter when the political leaders mess up really bad and the
> general population is persuaded to oust the sitting regime, that is
> gist of Democracy, voter turnout has little impact, generally speaking.
>
> Best,
>
> Donovan
>
>
>
> */Sunil Ramalingam <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com>/* wrote:
>
> Paul,
>
> If you read Greg Palast on the issue of vote suppression, you may
> be asking
> "How many votes will be counted?" instead.
>
> Sunil
>
>
> >From: Paul Rumelhart
> >To: Donovan Arnold
> >CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
> >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] (Hillary is a Shoe In) speaking of
> politics....
> >Date: Sat, 25 Aug 2007 11:53:09 -0700
> >
> >I agree that he doesn't really have a shot in hell in this
> corporatized,
> >media-controlled, soundbite civilization we live in. I just keep
> hoping
> >that the Internet will show its true promise as a true democratic
> tool.
> >One day, so goes my fantasy, there will be a lot of corporate types
> >scrambling to find out why Money, Media, and Momentum failed them so
> >utterly. What it all comes down to is: how many people will actually
> >vote? A true wave of "underground" sentiment could really affect the
> >numbers (assuming that Diebold isn't running the election).
> >
> >I agree with your thoughts on Ron Pauls sincerity and honesty. It's
> >refreshing, I just hope that "the people" will tell their corporate
> >masters to go to hell and actually start caring about things again.
> >
> >Paul
> >
> >Donovan Arnold wrote:
> > > Paul,
> > >
> > > Ron Paul is an honest guy, and thus will never be President.
> If wide
> > > Internet support and winning debates was the indication of
> winning the
> > > presidency, Howard Dean would be President and Dennis Kucinich
> would
> > > be Vice President today. George W. Bush never won a single
> > > Presidential Debate yet he won two terms, and few and far
> between on
> > > the net voice support for his tenure, how do you explain that
> using
> > > your measure of Internet support and debate winning as the
> path to the
> > > White House?
> > >
> > > There are three things that indicate who the winners are going
> to be,
> > > Money, Media, and Momentum. Only a few candidates have all three;
> > >
> > > Hillary Clinton
> > > Barrack Obama
> > > Mitt Romney
> > > Fred Thompson
> > > Mike Huckabee
> > >
> > > Of those, only realistically, two could win from each nomination.
> > > Democratic nomination is either going to Clinton, Obama, or Gore,
> > > because if Clinton or Obama don't make it, Gore will jump in
> and make
> > > a go of it. McCain and Rudy are at the top now, but rapidly
> sinking
> > > while Thompson and Romney are rising.
> > >
> > > Mike Huckabee doesn't believe in evolution, so no way he could be
> > > President, sorry, maybe 8 years ago, but not today.
> > >
> > > Ron Paul, he isn't a serious candidate, but he will probably
> still be
> > > in the race up until the end, like Dennis Kucinich. They are
> there for
> > > reasons other than actually winning the nomination. Jeb Bush
> will get
> > > the nomination before Ron Paul and some of these other no name
> > > candidates with little money and recognition.
> > >
> > > I like Ron Paul, he is making a valuable contribution to his
> country,
> > > talking about real issues, and forcing the viable candidates
> to answer
> > > questions and making promises about what they would do about
> > > situations if elected. I think it is great you would cast your
> vote
> > > for a noble, intelligent, and honest man who actually cares
> about the
> > > country, but he will not get the nomination, he isn't even a real
> > > Republican, he is a Libertarian, and use to run as a
> Libertarian, only
> > > recently did he switch to get more attention and a seat in
> Congress
> > > with some teeth.
> > >
> > > Best,
> > >
> > > Donovan
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > */Paul Rumelhart /* wrote:
> > >
> > > I've been led to believe that Ron Paul has a large underground
> > > audience
> > > on the net; it would be foolish of the other candidates to
> discount
> > > him. He is in the curious position of having a very strong, if not
> > > the
> > > strongest, popularity on the internet, but never gets higher than
> > > 3% on
> > > gallup polls. So, either the internet is a much smaller beast
> than
> >it
> > > would first appear, or the various polls are burying their heads
> > > in the
> > > sand.
> > >
> > > According to Wikipedia, he has won three of the four Republican
> > > presidential debates based on the results of the online polls
> of the
> > > sponsors that held them. His name as a search term has scored
> higher
> > > than the other candidates online based on the results of a few
> > > traffic
> > > analysis companies. He is viewed the most on YouTube, and has the
> > > largest number of subscriptions.
> > >
> > > Although I can't agree with everything he stands for (withdrawing
> > > from
> > > the UN and Nato comes to mind), I am solidly behind him based
> on his
> > > voting record on the issues that this current government has
> foisted
> > > upon us, such as the Patriot Act and the Iraq War.
> > >
> > > Paul
> > >
> > > Donovan Arnold wrote:
> > > > Keely writes,
> > > >
> > > > "I believe that Thompson's lymphoma is in remission; if that's
> > > true,
> > > > he doesn't 'have cancer'."
> > > >
> > > > But the truth is;
> > > >
> > > > "Patients with follicular lymphoma are generally not considered
> > > cured.
> > > > Instead, they are categorized as in ongoing complete remission.
> > > > Relapses occur steadily over time. *_Relapse rates are estimated
> > > to be
> > > > 33%, 66%, and 100% for follicular lymphoma's_* Grades I, II, and
> > > III
> > > > respectively." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Hodgkin_lymphoma
> > > >
> > > > Anyone want to nominate a President who has a 33-100% chance of
> > > dying
> > > > in office before we take into account any other potential health
> > > > problems? Remember Paul Tsongas, he said he was in remission
> > > too, he
> > > > had the same illness, and he died in 1997 from Non-Hodgkin's
> > > lymphoma,
> > > > which many times doesn't show any symptoms.
> > > >
> > > > Giuliani isn't a Republican, he is Pro-choice, Pro-gay marriage,
> > > > Anti-gun, Pro-taxes, Pro-big government. There is no way the
> hard
> > > > leaning right would nominate a Pro-life, Anti-Gun, Pro-big
> > > government
> > > > nominee. McCain is also done for his pro- illegal immigration
> > > bill and
> > > > finance reforms. McCain would also be over 80 at the end of
> second
> > > > term in January, 2017.
> > > >
> > > > That only leaves Thompson, with incurable cancer, and Mitt
> > > Romney as
> > > > candidates with enough money and recognition for a fighting
> chance
> > > > against Hillary.
> > > >
> > > > I think Hillary will have a hard time getting a majority vote,
> > > but she
> > > > doesn't need it. She only needs to get more electoral votes than
> > > her
> > > > Republican opponent, which at this point will be Mitt Romney,
> > > former
> > > > Governor of Massachusetts.
> > > >
> > > > The Democratic Nominee, whomever that many be, Richardson,
> >Edwards,
> > > > Obama, or Clinton, already have a five to ten point lead in
> enough
> > > > states to secure 250 electoral votes. They only need 20 more to
> > > win,
> > > > like Florida, or Ohio. If Bloomberg enters the race, that peels
> > > > another 4-8 points off the popular vote for the Republican
> > > nominee in
> > > > many key states.
> > > >
> > > > Even if Hillary fails to achieve a pularity (more votes than the
> > > other
> > > > two) of popular votes, which she doesn't need, in the three way
> > > > election, what are Republicans going to say, after all, Bush was
> > > > beaten in the popular vote in the 2000 election and still took
> > > the oath.
> > > >
> > > > Hillary is unlikely to lose the Democratic nomination
> because she
> > > > already has close to 50% of the primary vote. She is also very
> > > likely
> > > > to get at least 270 electoral votes in a three way race over
> any
> >of
> > > > the current candidates for President. The total popular vote
> > > doesn't
> > > > matter in the actually election (do the electoral math). If
> > > Hillary is
> > > > elected, which I think she will at this point, she is likely
> to be
> > > > very effective due to her experience and having a Democratic
> >Senate
> > > > and Congress backing her.
> > > >
> > > > I think the American Population will be very surprised at how
> > > > conservative many of her decisions will be as President. She
> > > will not
> > > > immediately withdraw troops. She will not enact anti-gun
> > > legislation,
> > > > and she will not grant same-sex marriage. I think she will
> be very
> > > > much in the center, politically, and very competent in her
> > > performance.
> > > >
> > > > Best,
> > > >
> > > > Donovan
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > */lfalen /* wrote:
> > > >
> > > > I agree with you about Hillary, but not about Giuliani. I think
> > > > that Thompson has a chance. Romney could also win, but has some
> > > > problems from my point of view.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Roger
> > > > -----Original message-----
> > > > From: keely emerinemix kjajmix1 at msn.com
> > > > Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2007 07:19:37 -0700
> > > > To: Donovan Arnold donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com, Tom
> > > > Hansenthansen at moscow.com, "'Bev Bafus'" bevbafus at verizon.net,
> > > > vision2020 at moscow.com
> > > > Subject: Re: [Vision2020] speaking of politics....
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I believe that Thompson's lymphoma is in remission; if that's
> > > > true, he doesn't "have cancer."
> > > > >
> > > > > And I think Giuliani might well be the only Republican who can
> > > > defeat the Democrats, particularly if we nominate Hillary. She
> > > > won't win. But Obama, Richardson, or Edwards could. I hope my
> > > > party listens.
> > > > >
> > > > > keely
> > > > >
> > > > > "Patriarchy and its abuses, including the alienation of woman
> > > > and man from each other, resulted from the material demands of
> > > > life outside of the Creator's abundance, a state God never
> > > > intended human beings to experience in the first place ...
> > > > Redemption means turning over the order of things in the fallen
> > > > world."
> > > > > -- Dr. Carrie Miles
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2007 19:48:48 -0700
> > > > > From: donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com
> > > > > To: thansen at moscow.com; bevbafus at verizon.net;
> > > vision2020 at moscow.com
> > > > > Subject: Re: [Vision2020] speaking of politics....
> > > > >
> > > > > "By Idaho standards Rudy Giuliani IS a Democrat. He is
> > > > pro-choice, supports same-sex marriage, and actively supports
> > > > public education."--T. Hansen
> > > > > He is also pro-taxes, pro big government, anti-second
> amendment,
> > > > and has three wives. If this guy gets the Republicans nomination
> > > > the Democrats win before the general election. John McCain
> is a no
> > > > win either. That only leaves Thompson and Romney, and
> Thompson has
> > > > cancer. Humm, wonder who the nominee is going to be? Best,
> Donovan
> > > > > Tom
> > > > > Hansen wrote: By Idaho standards Rudy Giuliani IS a
> Democrat. He
> > > > is pro-choice, supports same-sex marriage, and actively supports
> > > > public education. My guess is that New York and California
> are the
> > > > only states in the union where he could register Republican.
> Seeya
> > > > round town, Moscow.
> > > > >
> > > > > Tom Hansen
> > > > > Moscow, Idaho
> > > > >
> > > > > "People who ridicule others while hiding behind anonymous
> > > > monikers in chat-room forums are neither brave nor clever."
> > > > >
> > > > > - Latah County Sheriff Wayne Rausch (August 21, 2007) From:
> > > > vision2020-bounces at moscow.com
> > > > [mailto:vision2020-bounces at moscow.com] On Behalf Of Bev Bafus
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 23, 2007 7:11
> > > > > PM
> > > > > To: vision2020 at moscow.com
> > > > > Subject: [Vision2020] speaking of politics.... which we
> weren't,
> > > > but I just had to share this. My son met and chatted with Rudy
> > > > Giuliani
> > > > > today at the Coeur d'Alene Resort. My son is a valet there.
> > > > Mayor Giuliani introduced himself to my son, shook hands, and
> > > > chatted for a few minutes. Pretty heady stuff for a
> > > > > twenty-year-old. He was impressed, even though he leans
> > > > Democratic... He didn't get to valet park the huge Escalade,
> > > > though... Secret Service took care of that. Bev Bafus
> > > > =======================================================
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