[Vision2020] Scientific Consensus?: Global Warming, etc.

[Ted Moffett]

Paul et. al.

I did not seek debate with you as some sort of personal contest to "win" an
argument.  I would much rather discover the scientific evidence mostly
argues against dangerous human induced climate change.  I would sleep better
for it.  And feel less need to cut back on my fossil fuel use.

I asked you to answer why I should not trust the evidence presented in the
Science magazine article on the scientific consensus for human induce global
warming.  In short, if you think this article in general to be
wrong, explain why the article and its sources are false. Your skepticism
appears to suggest you think the article to be false, or at least not well
grounded to a high probability in the best science.

I guess you are saying you really don't give a damn about whether there is
or is not a current scientific consensus on global warming, or at least care
enough to defend your skepticism based on science...You have "other
projects... to focus on..."  Well, why didn't you just say so?  I was
wasting my time responding, well, unless by some miracle someone else read
my response to some positive effect.

I do not buy your "I'll leave saving the world to somebody more qualified"
line...

Those who are most qualified to speak on the global warming issue are for
the most part not those controlling governments, armies, and multinational
corporations, and most scientists are not among the super rich who have more
power over the decisions regarding fossil fuel use than those of modest
economic means.  Everyone has some obligation, I am inclined to feel, to
educated themselves about the dangers of environmental degradation, and take
action to address the problems.  If the scientists who study these issues
and are the most "qualified" are the only people attempting
social/political/economic change, they will face an overwhelming task.

Thanks for your skepticism.  Rene Descartes "all powerful evil deceiver"
should always be kept in mind.

Just don't be so open minded that, in the words of another Vision2020
subscriber who sent me this advice in an Offlist message, your "brains fall
out on your lap."

Ted Moffett

Paul wrote on 4/1/07::

Ted,

I'm not going to debate with you about the science of global warming.  Like
I said in my previous post, I'm not qualified to do so.  You are probably
right, hell you probably have a 90% confidence level of being right.  So
strike one up in the win column for yourself and move on.

However, you ask why I'm so skeptical about this.  I'm 41 years old.  Just a
youngster to many on this list, I'm sure.  Still, I've spent the last 20
years of my life relearning what I thought I knew from the previous 20.  Our
knowledge about the world has grown that quickly.  I can't keep up any
more.  The funny thing is, though, that every person who told me what they
thought was true believed it to be true just as vehemently as those who tell
me what they think they know do now.  Hence the skepticism.  I wouldn't be
surprised if we find out 20 years from now that what we thought we knew
about lots of different things (including Global Warming) is wrong.  I'm not
saying it is wrong, I'm not saying it's going to be wrong, I'm just not
going to be surprised if it goes the way of global cooling in the 70's.

Global warming has all the hallmarks of a subject that could turn out to be
wrong.  Big money is behind one side of it, a "save the world" mentality is
behind the other side.  Lots of interests to protect, lots of damage if we
guess wrongly.  And still, too many variables that affect each other.

On a more practical front, we are not at odds.  I think we should reduce our
consumption of fossil fuels or even eliminate it entirely as a fuel source.
We should work to make energy production as clean as possible.  And, even if
we lived in a world where the Middle East was a peaceful place and oil was
non-polluting with respect to other dangerous toxins except for CO2, I would
be advocating cleaner technologies because of the looming threat of global
warming even if I don't have a 90% confidence level in it being true.  It's
just a smart thing to do.

So, I have no interest in trying to defend my skepticism on this point.
It's simply an effect of my upbringing.  Besides, I have other projects I
wish to focus on right now.  I'll leave saving the world to somebody more
qualified than me.

Paul
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