[Vision2020] Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates

Sun May 21 16:57:35 PDT 2006

Thanks, Jerry, for the model review. As you 
rightly point out, any general study's 
conclusions have to be treated with a grain of 
salt when applied to a specific, in this case, 
local situation. However, that does not diminish 
the study's general conclusion that was derived 
using data related to all (about 3000 at the time 
of the study) Walmart stores. The authors note:

Wal-Mart avoids counties with higher population 
density (at least until recently) in part
because of higher land costs in these counties, 
and while the chain has traditionally located in
rural communities, it also avoids less populated, more remote places.

The above appears to describe Latah County, and 
Moscow in particular, fairly well. We may not be 
in the center of the study's Bell curve, but I 
bet we're not too far off to either side.

Mark

At 4:22 PM -0700 5/21/06, Jerry Weitz wrote:
>I reviewed the Wal-Mart and County-Wide Poverty 
>and was impressed that they used a two stage 
>regression model that we use in 
>Medicine/dentistry for epidemiological studies 
>with multivariates.  Briefly and I am not an 
>expert, the first stage (an unstructured 
>polytomous logistic regression approach) models 
>the effects of covariates that can be defined by 
>cross-classifications.  The second stage (the 
>subtype-specific regression parameters of the 
>first stage model) are modeled by using  the 
>multivariate structure of the subtype 
>definitions and the possible ordering of 
>continuous naturing of certain characteristics. 
>Thus the second stage modeling reduces 
>dimensional biases.  The complexity of variables 
>in economics causes a study such as this to be 
>suspect and the authors conclusions kind of let 
>them off the hook in that "Wal-Mart creates both 
>benefits and costs to communities."   So if 
>there are omitted variables and a spacial 
>dependence bias, then at least  two stage 
>modeling methodology can be efficiently 
>corrected.  What was missing for our region was 
>the effect of large government programs such as 
>CRP: CRP effects on small ag business such as 
>repair shops, farm supply, equipment 
>dealerships, fertilizer companies, land value 
>and sales etc.  Other variates such as having a 
>large student population relative the general 
>population,  a declining forest industry, 
>relative lack of large private sector businesses 
>may be variates that would require future 
>inquiry.
>
>From my world  examples:  PSA for Prostate 
>Cancer Screening.  Recall that "an epidimic of 
>prostate cancer" occured in the media since PSA 
>introduction.  However the question is:  would 
>have Noble Laureate Linus Pauling who died at 93 
>with prostate cancer would have lived longer 
>with therapies administered to him with a PSA 
>test at age 60 or would the therapies caused him 
>to die earlier?   Another, would CT for lung 
>cancer screening for Peter Jennings who died at 
>67 caused him to live longer?  Presently U. S. 
>Preventive Services Task Force states "current 
>data do not support screening for lung cancer 
>with any method."   Or another drug study: 
>Bextra (cox-2inhibitor) where the contol proved 
>to be flawed yet the compaarative study was not 
>flawed.  The drug was thrown out of the market. 
>
>Hence studies are easlily biased and can lead to 
>bad information/actions.  The question to be 
>answered:  Would it be in the interest of Moscow 
>to have commercial development shift to the 
>corridor?  Would this help or hinder the school 
>district revenues since the district has now 
>stabilized enrollment after significant ADA 
>declines from the mid 90's. jerry
>
>
>
>
>
>At 03:32 PM 5/17/06, Mark Solomon wrote:
>
>>  Social Science Quarterly Publishes Study: 
>>Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates
>>
>>Study claims Wal-Mart raises poverty rates in 
>>the counties where its stores are located.
>>
>>MALDEN, Mass./EWORLDWIRE/May 17, 2006 --- A 
>>study published in the latest issue of Social 
>>Science Quarterly is the first to examine the 
>>effect of Wal-Mart stores on poverty rates. The 
>>study found that nationwide an estimated 20,000 
>>families have fallen below the official poverty 
>>line as a result of the chain's expansion.
>>
>>During the last decade, dependence on the food 
>>stamp program nationwide increased by eight 
>>percent while in counties with Wal-Mart stores, 
>>the increase was almost twice as large at 15.3 
>>percent.
>>
>>"After controlling for other factors 
>>determining changes in the poverty rate over 
>>time, we find that counties with more initial 
>>Wal-Mart stores and with more additions of 
>>stores between 1987 and 1998 experienced 
>>greater increases (or smaller decreases) in 
>>family poverty rates during the 1990's economic 
>>boom period," stated Stephan Goetz a professor 
>>of Agricultural and Regional Economics at The 
>>Pennsylvania State University. Although 
>>Wal-Mart employs many people living in its 
>>communities, for most, the hours worked and the 
>>wages paid do not help these families 
>>transition out of poverty.
>>
>>Another effect is that the closing of "mom and 
>>pop" stores following the appearance of a store 
>>leads to the closing of local businesses that 
>>previously supplied those stores including, 
>>wholesalers, transporters, logistics providers, 
>>accountants, lawyers and others. Goetz states, 
>>"By displacing the local class of 
>>entrepreneurs, the Wal-Mart chain also destroys 
>>local leadership capacity." Social Science 
>>Quartely author's encourage community leaders 
>>to think about programs and policies in 
>>anticipation of helping those displaced by the 
>>arrival of the chain.
>>
>>This study is published in the June issue of 
>>Social Science Quarterly. Media wishing to 
>>receive a PDF of this article please contact 
>>journalnews at bos.blackwellpublishing.net.
>>
>>Connecting the Social Sciences, Social Science 
>>Quarterly is nationally recognized as one of 
>>the top journals in the field. It is published 
>>on behalf of the Southwestern Social Science 
>>Association.
>>
>>Dr. Stephan J. Goetz is a professor of 
>>Agricultural and Regional Economics at The 
>>Pennsylvania State University. Before coming to 
>>Penn State in 1999, he served on the faculty at 
>>the University of Kentucky for nine years with 
>>research and teaching responsibilities in 
>>economic development. Dr. Goetz is available 
>>for questions and interviews.
>>
>>Blackwell Publishing is the world's leading 
>>society publisher, partnering with 665 academic 
>>and professional societies. Blackwell publishes 
>>over 800 journals and, to date, has published 
>>more than 6,000 books, across a wide range of 
>>academic, medical and professional subjects.
>>
>>    HTML: http://newsroom.eworldwire.com/releases/14555
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