[Vision2020] Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates

[Jerry Weitz]

I reviewed the Wal-Mart and County-Wide Poverty and was impressed that they 
used a two stage regression model that we use in Medicine/dentistry for 
epidemiological studies with multivariates.  Briefly and I am not an 
expert, the first stage (an unstructured polytomous logistic regression 
approach) models the effects of covariates that can be defined by 
cross-classifications.  The second stage (the subtype-specific regression 
parameters of the first stage model) are modeled by using  the multivariate 
structure of the subtype definitions and the possible ordering of 
continuous naturing of certain characteristics.  Thus the second stage 
modeling reduces dimensional biases.  The complexity of variables in 
economics causes a study such as this to be suspect and the authors 
conclusions kind of let them off the hook in that "Wal-Mart creates both 
benefits and costs to communities."   So if there are omitted variables and 
a spacial dependence bias, then at least  two stage modeling methodology 
can be efficiently corrected.  What was missing for our region was the 
effect of large government programs such as CRP: CRP effects on small ag 
business such as repair shops, farm supply, equipment dealerships, 
fertilizer companies, land value and sales etc.  Other variates such as 
having a large student population relative the general population,  a 
declining forest industry, relative lack of large private sector businesses 
may be variates that would require future inquiry.

 From my world  examples:  PSA for Prostate Cancer Screening.  Recall that 
"an epidimic of prostate cancer" occured in the media since PSA 
introduction.  However the question is:  would have Noble Laureate Linus 
Pauling who died at 93 with prostate cancer would have lived longer with 
therapies administered to him with a PSA test at age 60 or would the 
therapies caused him to die earlier?   Another, would CT for lung cancer 
screening for Peter Jennings who died at 67 caused him to live 
longer?  Presently U. S. Preventive Services Task Force states "current 
data do not support screening for lung cancer with any method."   Or 
another drug study: Bextra (cox-2inhibitor) where the contol proved to be 
flawed yet the compaarative study was not flawed.  The drug was thrown out 
of the market.

Hence studies are easlily biased and can lead to bad 
information/actions.  The question to be answered:  Would it be in the 
interest of Moscow to have commercial development shift to the 
corridor?  Would this help or hinder the school district revenues since the 
district has now stabilized enrollment after significant ADA declines from 
the mid 90's. jerry





At 03:32 PM 5/17/06, Mark Solomon wrote:
>  Social Science Quarterly Publishes Study: Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty 
> Rates
>
>Study claims Wal-Mart raises poverty rates in the counties where its 
>stores are located.
>
>MALDEN, Mass./EWORLDWIRE/May 17, 2006 --- A study published in the latest 
>issue of Social Science Quarterly is the first to examine the effect of 
>Wal-Mart stores on poverty rates. The study found that nationwide an 
>estimated 20,000 families have fallen below the official poverty line as a 
>result of the chain's expansion.
>
>During the last decade, dependence on the food stamp program nationwide 
>increased by eight percent while in counties with Wal-Mart stores, the 
>increase was almost twice as large at 15.3 percent.
>
>"After controlling for other factors determining changes in the poverty 
>rate over time, we find that counties with more initial Wal-Mart stores 
>and with more additions of stores between 1987 and 1998 experienced 
>greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family poverty rates during 
>the 1990's economic boom period," stated Stephan Goetz a professor of 
>Agricultural and Regional Economics at The Pennsylvania State University. 
>Although Wal-Mart employs many people living in its communities, for most, 
>the hours worked and the wages paid do not help these families transition 
>out of poverty.
>
>Another effect is that the closing of "mom and pop" stores following the 
>appearance of a store leads to the closing of local businesses that 
>previously supplied those stores including, wholesalers, transporters, 
>logistics providers, accountants, lawyers and others. Goetz states, "By 
>displacing the local class of entrepreneurs, the Wal-Mart chain also 
>destroys local leadership capacity." Social Science Quartely author's 
>encourage community leaders to think about programs and policies in 
>anticipation of helping those displaced by the arrival of the chain.
>
>This study is published in the June issue of Social Science Quarterly. 
>Media wishing to receive a PDF of this article please contact 
>journalnews at bos.blackwellpublishing.net.
>
>Connecting the Social Sciences, Social Science Quarterly is nationally 
>recognized as one of the top journals in the field. It is published on 
>behalf of the Southwestern Social Science Association.
>
>Dr. Stephan J. Goetz is a professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics 
>at The Pennsylvania State University. Before coming to Penn State in 1999, 
>he served on the faculty at the University of Kentucky for nine years with 
>research and teaching responsibilities in economic development. Dr. Goetz 
>is available for questions and interviews.
>
>Blackwell Publishing is the world's leading society publisher, partnering 
>with 665 academic and professional societies. Blackwell publishes over 800 
>journals and, to date, has published more than 6,000 books, across a wide 
>range of academic, medical and professional subjects.
>
>    HTML: http://newsroom.eworldwire.com/releases/14555
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>
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>Blackwell Publishing
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>SOURCE: Blackwell Publishing
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