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I reviewed the Wal-Mart and County-Wide Poverty and was impressed that
they used a two stage regression model that we use in Medicine/dentistry
for epidemiological studies with multivariates. Briefly and I am
not an expert, the first stage (an unstructured polytomous logistic
regression approach) models the effects of covariates that can be defined
by cross-classifications. The second stage (the subtype-specific
regression parameters of the first stage model) are modeled by
using the multivariate structure of the subtype definitions and the
possible ordering of continuous naturing of certain
characteristics. Thus the second stage modeling reduces dimensional
biases. The complexity of variables in economics causes a study
such as this to be suspect and the authors conclusions kind of let them
off the hook in that "Wal-Mart creates both benefits and costs to
communities." So if there are omitted variables and a
spacial dependence bias, then at least two stage modeling
methodology can be efficiently corrected. What was missing for our
region was the effect of large government programs such as CRP: CRP
effects on small ag business such as repair shops, farm supply, equipment
dealerships, fertilizer companies, land value and sales etc. Other
variates such as having a large student population relative the general
population, a declining forest industry, relative lack of large
private sector businesses may be variates that would require future
inquiry.<br><br>
From my world examples: PSA for Prostate Cancer
Screening. Recall that "an epidimic of prostate cancer"
occured in the media since PSA introduction. However the question
is: would have Noble Laureate Linus Pauling who died at 93 with
prostate cancer would have lived longer with therapies administered to
him with a PSA test at age 60 or would the therapies caused him to die
earlier? Another, would CT for lung cancer screening for
Peter Jennings who died at 67 caused him to live longer? Presently
U. S. Preventive Services Task Force states "current data do not
support screening for lung cancer with any method." Or
another drug study: Bextra (cox-2inhibitor) where the contol proved to be
flawed yet the compaarative study was not flawed. The drug was
thrown out of the market. <br><br>
Hence studies are easlily biased and can lead to bad
information/actions. The question to be answered: Would it be
in the interest of Moscow to have commercial development shift to the
corridor? Would this help or hinder the school district revenues
since the district has now stabilized enrollment after significant ADA
declines from the mid 90's. jerry<br><br>
<br><br>
<br><br>
At 03:32 PM 5/17/06, Mark Solomon wrote:<br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite=""><tt> Social Science
Quarterly Publishes Study: Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates<br><br>
Study claims Wal-Mart raises poverty rates in the counties where its
stores are located.</tt><br>
<tt><br>
MALDEN, Mass./EWORLDWIRE/May 17, 2006 --- A study published in the latest
issue of Social Science Quarterly is the first to examine the effect of
Wal-Mart stores on poverty rates. The study found that nationwide an
estimated 20,000 families have fallen below the official poverty line as
a result of the chain's expansion.<br>
<br>
During the last decade, dependence on the food stamp program nationwide
increased by eight percent while in counties with Wal-Mart stores, the
increase was almost twice as large at 15.3 percent.<br><br>
"After controlling for other factors determining changes in the
poverty rate over time, we find that counties with more initial Wal-Mart
stores and with more additions of stores between 1987 and 1998
experienced greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family poverty
rates during the 1990's economic boom period," stated Stephan Goetz
a professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics at The Pennsylvania
State University. Although Wal-Mart employs many people living in its
communities, for most, the hours worked and the wages paid do not help
these families transition out of poverty.<br><br>
Another effect is that the closing of "mom and pop" stores
following the appearance of a store leads to the closing of local
businesses that previously supplied those stores including, wholesalers,
transporters, logistics providers, accountants, lawyers and others. Goetz
states, "By displacing the local class of entrepreneurs, the
Wal-Mart chain also destroys local leadership capacity." Social
Science Quartely author's encourage community leaders to think about
programs and policies in anticipation of helping those displaced by the
arrival of the chain.<br><br>
This study is published in the June issue of Social Science Quarterly.
Media wishing to receive a PDF of this article please contact
journalnews@bos.blackwellpublishing.net.<br><br>
Connecting the Social Sciences, Social Science Quarterly is nationally
recognized as one of the top journals in the field. It is published on
behalf of the Southwestern Social Science Association.<br><br>
Dr. Stephan J. Goetz is a professor of Agricultural and Regional
Economics at The Pennsylvania State University. Before coming to Penn
State in 1999, he served on the faculty at the University of Kentucky for
nine years with research and teaching responsibilities in economic
development. Dr. Goetz is available for questions and
interviews.<br><br>
Blackwell Publishing is the world's leading society publisher, partnering
with 665 academic and professional societies. Blackwell publishes over
800 journals and, to date, has published more than 6,000 books, across a
wide range of academic, medical and professional subjects.<br><br>
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