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<div>Thanks, Jerry, for the model review. As you rightly point out,
any general study's conclusions have to be treated with a grain of
salt when applied to a specific, in this case, local situation.
However, that does not diminish the study's general conclusion that
was derived using data related to all (about 3000 at the time of the
study) Walmart stores. The authors note:</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><font size="+1" color="#000000">Wal-Mart avoids counties with
higher population density (at least until recently) in part<br>
because of higher land costs in these counties, and while the chain
has traditionally located in<br>
rural communities, it also avoids less populated, more remote
places.</font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>The above appears to describe Latah County, and Moscow in
particular, fairly well. We may not be in the center of the study's
Bell curve, but I bet we're not too far off to either side.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Mark</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>At 4:22 PM -0700 5/21/06, Jerry Weitz wrote:</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>I reviewed the Wal-Mart and County-Wide
Poverty and was impressed that they used a two stage regression model
that we use in Medicine/dentistry for epidemiological studies with
multivariates. Briefly and I am not an expert, the first stage
(an unstructured polytomous logistic regression approach) models the
effects of covariates that can be defined by cross-classifications.
The second stage (the subtype-specific regression parameters of the
first stage model) are modeled by using the multivariate
structure of the subtype definitions and the possible ordering of
continuous naturing of certain characteristics. Thus the second
stage modeling reduces dimensional biases. The complexity of
variables in economics causes a study such as this to be suspect and
the authors conclusions kind of let them off the hook in that
"Wal-Mart creates both benefits and costs to
communities." So if there are omitted variables and a
spacial dependence bias, then at least two stage modeling
methodology can be efficiently corrected. What was missing for
our region was the effect of large government programs such as CRP:
CRP effects on small ag business such as repair shops, farm supply,
equipment dealerships, fertilizer companies, land value and sales
etc. Other variates such as having a large student population
relative the general population, a declining forest industry,
relative lack of large private sector businesses may be variates that
would require future inquiry.<br>
<br>
From my world examples: PSA for Prostate Cancer
Screening. Recall that "an epidimic of prostate cancer"
occured in the media since PSA introduction. However the
question is: would have Noble Laureate Linus Pauling who died at
93 with prostate cancer would have lived longer with therapies
administered to him with a PSA test at age 60 or would the therapies
caused him to die earlier? Another, would CT for lung
cancer screening for Peter Jennings who died at 67 caused him to live
longer? Presently U. S. Preventive Services Task Force states
"current data do not support screening for lung cancer with any
method." Or another drug study: Bextra
(cox-2inhibitor) where the contol proved to be flawed yet the
compaarative study was not flawed. The drug was thrown out of
the market. <br>
<br>
Hence studies are easlily biased and can lead to bad
information/actions. The question to be answered: Would it
be in the interest of Moscow to have commercial development shift to
the corridor? Would this help or hinder the school district
revenues since the district has now stabilized enrollment after
significant ADA declines from the mid 90's. jerry<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
At 03:32 PM 5/17/06, Mark Solomon wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><tt> Social Science Quarterly
Publishes Study: Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates<br>
<br>
Study claims Wal-Mart raises poverty rates in the counties where its
stores are located.</tt><br>
<tt><br>
MALDEN, Mass./EWORLDWIRE/May 17, 2006 --- A study published in the
latest issue of Social Science Quarterly is the first to examine the
effect of Wal-Mart stores on poverty rates. The study found that
nationwide an estimated 20,000 families have fallen below the official
poverty line as a result of the chain's expansion.</tt></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><tt><br>
During the last decade, dependence on the food stamp program
nationwide increased by eight percent while in counties with Wal-Mart
stores, the increase was almost twice as large at 15.3 percent.<br>
<br>
"After controlling for other factors determining changes in the
poverty rate over time, we find that counties with more initial
Wal-Mart stores and with more additions of stores between 1987 and
1998 experienced greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family
poverty rates during the 1990's economic boom period," stated
Stephan Goetz a professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics at
The Pennsylvania State University. Although Wal-Mart employs many
people living in its communities, for most, the hours worked and the
wages paid do not help these families transition out of poverty.<br>
<br>
Another effect is that the closing of "mom and pop" stores
following the appearance of a store leads to the closing of local
businesses that previously supplied those stores including,
wholesalers, transporters, logistics providers, accountants, lawyers
and others. Goetz states, "By displacing the local class of
entrepreneurs, the Wal-Mart chain also destroys local leadership
capacity." Social Science Quartely author's encourage community
leaders to think about programs and policies in anticipation of
helping those displaced by the arrival of the chain.<br>
<br>
This study is published in the June issue of Social Science Quarterly.
Media wishing to receive a PDF of this article please contact
journalnews@bos.blackwellpublishing.net.<br>
<br>
Connecting the Social Sciences, Social Science Quarterly is nationally
recognized as one of the top journals in the field. It is published on
behalf of the Southwestern Social Science Association.<br>
<br>
Dr. Stephan J. Goetz is a professor of Agricultural and Regional
Economics at The Pennsylvania State University. Before coming to Penn
State in 1999, he served on the faculty at the University of Kentucky
for nine years with research and teaching responsibilities in economic
development. Dr. Goetz is available for questions and interviews.<br>
<br>
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