[Vision2020] When Moscow Doubles in Population

[Mark Solomon]

I too have heard Mr. Lambert refer to a doubling of population in 
Idaho over 15 years. However, I have yet to hear anyone say that 
Moscow's population will follow that same curve. Moscow has had an 
averaged growth rate of 1%/year for decades and there is no reason to 
assume it will be changing anytime soon, especially given the 
restraint of available water supply and the somewhat steady state of 
our leading economic drivers (UI, ag, retail and, to a lesser extent, 
technology).

Here's an open question, that I keep hoping someone more versed in 
statistical analysis than myself would undertake: how much of the 1% 
Moscow growth rate was driven by the artificial restraint on 
development of ag land in Whitman County and what the anticipated 
effect on future Moscow growth might be?

  My quick look at the Pullman annual growth rate is 0.5% annually 
from 1990-2004. Given the similar nature of the Moscow/Pullman 
economies and the removal of the ag land development restriction it 
is more likely that we'll see a leveling of the growth rates between 
the two: 0.75% annually for Moscow. Of course, we are a different 
community with different amenities (such as a forested mountain just 
outside of town) but I would like someone to explain why we should 
either plan for or expect our population to double in 15 years when 
there is no historical trend to indicate it will occur. We are not 
Boise or Coeur d'Alene or Sandpoint or McCall or Kuna or Meridian 
or....

Then there is that water thing.

Mark Solomon

At 8:02 AM -0700 5/21/06, Nils Peterson wrote:
>I was at the Affordable Housing workshop yesterday afternoon, and as it
>broke up, got to chatting will Bill Lambert who mentioned that Idaho is
>predicted to double its population in the next 15 years. Lets assume, for a
>minute, that is true, and further that Moscow will participate and as a
>visioning group, work on a thought experiment. For point of topicality, lets
>say the doubling will be achieved in the year 2020 (14 years).
>
>Rules for this conversation: you must be as explicit as you can about your
>assumptions, but you are allowed to make them -- even like this one:  for
>point of this conversation, assume Moscow has a population of 20,000 now and
>will grow to 40,000.  Others are allowed to talk about your assumptions, or
>to make counter assumptions.  Bashing one another is not interesting.
>
>My suggested goal for the opening part of this conversation -- surface the
>topics for the sub-conversation. What are the big areas and issues we need
>to think about? The big areas will either be represented by government and
>civic organizations in existence today, or they will point to organizational
>gaps we need to consider filling.
>
>If you will make your subject line informative, like this, we'll all be
>better able to track what may be multiple threads of the conversation: When
>Moscow Doubles - Topic Water
>
>I'm looking forward to your help thinking out this question.