[Vision2020] Civil War in Iraq

[ToeKneeTime at aol.com]

Nick,
 
Regarding Diamond's reservations....  Yes, the situation in Iraq is  unstable 
and volatile.  I don't think any of us expected it would be  simple.  
Certainly Bush warned repeatedly that it would be a long and  difficult pull.  
Unfortunately we are not dealing with a geographically  concentrated enemy as we 
were in Germany or Japan years ago.  In both of  those cases they were organized 
en masse under one loony banner, not like Iraq  today where several loony 
factions are after each other's throats as well as  ours.  God knows whether 
Khalizad or any one else will be able to pull off  the super human feat of bringing 
these factions together on common ground.
 
As Diamond's article mentioned, any agreement which hopes to put a stop to  
Sunni violence will have to include an unambiguous commitment from Bush to  
eventually withdraw from Iraq.  Bush has cooperated in that sense as he has  
vowed from day one that our presence there would be temporary and that  our goal 
was to turn over governance of Iraq to the Iraqi people  through the democratic 
process.  One tall order to say the  least, but I would plead for a bit more 
patience with the administration's  efforts.  Bush has some pretty bright 
folks at his disposal.  I am  sure that Rumsfeld, Rice, Cheney and crew are well 
acquainted with Diamond's  arguments as well as those who disagree with him.  
Unlike you, I find this  administration measured, mature and credible.  I tend 
to trust them as a  group with a firm moral compass, unlike the Clinton 
administration.
 
I would suppose that you support some form of mediated settlement and  
gradual withdrawal?  Perhaps not so gradual?  As Diamond warned at the  conclution 
of his piece, a sudden withdrawal of our forces as many have  advocated would 
result in an all out civil war.
 
Best,  Tony
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