[Vision2020] Borah Symposium:Three Disastrous Years in Iraq
Art Deco
deco at moscow.com
Tue Mar 21 18:32:02 PST 2006
Matt,
Breakup of Yugoslavia: Another disaster (see Joan Opyr's post).
However, if I recall correctly, that breakup and boundary setting was
negotiated in part by the parties themselves and not imposed solely by a
third party.
W.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Decker" <mattd2107 at hotmail.com>
To: <deco at moscow.com>; <vision2020 at moscow.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 5:43 PM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Borah Symposium:Three Disastrous Years in Iraq
> Art,
>
> What about Yugoslavia, Csech republic?
>
>
>>From: "Art Deco" <deco at moscow.com>
>>To: "Vision 2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Borah Symposium:Three Disastrous Years in Iraq
>>Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 15:55:19 -0800
>>
>>Doesn't anyone remember when this was last tried in large -- the creation
>>of an Israeli state?
>>
>>Without debating the justification of that decision, it is clear that such
>>actions, especially when ill-planned, only serve to increase hate and
>>strife. They are solutions that lead to much greater, perhaps almost
>>unsolvable problems.
>>
>>Are we the gods of the universe whose mission is to destroy/create/change
>>physical/political entities wherever it suits our fancy? {And to ignore
>>hellish human genocide/mind-numbing suffering whenever convenient like
>>presently in the Sudan?}
>>
>>W.
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: Ted Moffett
>>To: Matt Decker
>>Cc: vision2020 at moscow.com
>>Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 2:32 PM
>>Subject: [Vision2020] Borah Symposium:Three Disastrous Years in Iraq
>>
>>
>>All:
>>
>>Dividing Iraq into Kurd, Sunni, and Shite "independent" states would not
>>solve the problems. These separate entities would fight each other over
>>access to oil fields, and continue their tribal and religious strife. And
>>US alley Turkey does not want an empowered Kurdish state on their border,
>>while the US does not want to push southern Iraq to ally itself more with
>>Iran, who already is influencing southern Iraq.
>>
>>Offering each group a semi-autonomous governing region within a united
>>Iraq is another option, but why would this work when the separate state
>>option would not?
>>
>>But we should back up and ask if the problems there are really ours to
>>solve for them. What if some nation decided they needed to solve our
>>nation's problems during our civil war that killed half a million in the
>>US out of a much smaller population than now? Would we have wanted France
>>or England to invade and force the north and the south to stop fighting
>>and form some sort of new peaceful government? Even if the US expressed
>>what brutal monsters they were in the death and suffering of the US Civil
>>War, fought in part over the human rights abuses of slavery, if another
>>nation had invaded to solve our problems, however well intentioned, I
>>think they would have faced an impossible situation.
>>
>>Isn't it wise to sometimes let nations solve their own internal problems
>>rather than thinking military force can mandate that everyone to play
>>nice? Wouldn't a policy that aimed at toppling Saddam from within, using
>>the resources and will of the Iraq people, have been more wise? It was
>>obvious to many that the Iraq invasion to democratize Iraq, even assuming
>>the most noble aims, was a huge gamble, given the tribal and religious
>>strife endemic to that area.
>>
>>It is often stated that just as the US maintained a military presence in
>>Germany and Japan post WWII for various reasons, we must militarily stay
>>in Iraq for similar reasons. But of course Japan and Germany had occupied
>>huge areas of the world in an attempt at world domination. Germany
>>attacked, conquered and occupied US allies, and Japan attacked Pearl
>>Harbor and the US Navy. Iraq was not threatening the US in an alliance
>>aimed at world domination. And even Bush is now going public stating that
>>Saddam and Iraq were not tied to 9/11. Also, the invasion of Kuwait had
>>been repelled and Iraq militarily was devastated after that war. And
>>Saddam was not liked by Al Queda, who viewed him as a sort of Islamic
>>heretic.
>>
>>It would be wonderful if the US could militarily police the world removing
>>dictators and improving human rights as a general policy, but in some
>>cases military meddling in other nation's internal strife can result in a
>>worse outcome, which appears to be happening in Iraq.
>>
>>This is a lose-lose-lose-lose scenario, whether we increase our forces
>>(yes, some insist this is what is needed to really stop the insurgency and
>>police Iraq), stay as now, withdraw slowly turning security over to Iraq,
>>waiting on the sidelines ready to re-invade if things get out of control,
>>or withdraw more permanently, there are lots of options, but none that are
>>a good solution.
>>
>>But we won't totally withdraw... this option should not even be
>>realistically considered. The US intends to keep permanent military bases
>>in Iraq. The US will need them for the future oil wars.
>>
>>The Borah Symposium next week should be interesting, given it focuses on
>>resource and/or oil wars.
>>
>>http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/2006_symposium.html
>>
>>http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/
>>
>>
>>Ted Moffett
>>
>>
>>
>>On 3/20/06, Matt Decker <mattd2107 at hotmail.com > wrote:
>> Mr Gier,
>>
>> I have to applaud your well written theory below. I would have to agree
>> with
>> a lot of which you have stated. What might you think we do though. I
>> really
>> think pulling out within the next 2-4 months would do more damage then
>> not.
>> What about dividing up that county. Shites ,Sunnis, and Kurds obviously
>> can't get along, well at least the Shites and Sunnis? Call me crazy but
>> I
>> say divide it up and get out.
>>
>> Thoughts
>> Matt
>>
>>
>> >From: nickgier at adelphia.net
>> >To: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> >Subject: [Vision2020] Three Disastrous Years in Iraq
>> >Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:05:23 -0500
>> >
>> >Greetings:
>> >
>> >My KRFA radio commentary this week will be drawn from the longer
>> column
>> >below.
>> >I've attached it as a Word file for those who say that my postings
>> always
>> >come
>> >up blanks. Tony goes off half-cocked and I draw blanks. It just
>> aint'
>> >fair.
>> >
>> >Nick Gier
>> >
>> >WOULD SADDAM HAVE BEEN BETTER?
>> >THREE DISASTROUS YEARS IN IRAQ
>> >
>> >Iraq has passed through three years that are the worst in its history.
>> >--Baghdad resident Munthir Rasheed
>> >
>> >by Nick Gier, Emeritus Professor, University of Idaho
>> >
>> > President Bush has predicted that 75 percent of Iraq will soon
>> be
>> >controlled by
>> >Iraqi forces. What he does not tell us is that the loyalty of these
>> police
>> >and
>> >army units is uncertain because of ethnic and religious divisions.
>> >
>> > In his war anniversary speech Bush lauded the progress of a
>> town called
>> >Tall
>> >Afar. Last month reporter Laurence Kaplan was coming into Tall Afar
>> with an
>> >U.S.
>> >Army convoy when he witnessed heavy gun fire. He assumed that it was
>> an
>> >insurgent attack, but it turned out that it was a skirmish between the
>> >local
>> >police, mostly Sunnis, and the Iraqi Army, primarily Shias and Kurds.
>> >
>> >The Kurds in North, 90 percent of whom recently voted for an
>> independent
>> >state,
>> >still hold their Peshmarga forces (at least 50,000) under their own
>> >command, and
>> >it is only a matter of time before they take over the largest oil
>> fields in
>> >the
>> >country.
>> >
>> >Even more troublesome are the Shia militias, who, with close ties to
>> Iran,
>> >control many areas of Iraq. Moqtada al-Sadr, with whom the U.S.
>> fought
>> >pitched
>> >battles in 2004, recently returned from a trip to Tehran where his
>> Iranian
>> >sponsors promised continued support for his 10,000-man Mahdi Army.
>> (It was
>> >only
>> >about 600 men in 2003.) Al-Sadr has made his loyalties clear: "The
>> Madhi
>> >Army is
>> >beyond the Iraqi Army. It was established to defend Islam."
>> >
>> >It is not unusual for Iraqi patrols in Sadr City, Baghdad's largest
>> slum,
>> >to be
>> >greeted by children who hand them pictures of their hero. Although
>> the
>> >soldiers
>> >defend themselves by saying that they do so under duress, they always
>> hold
>> >up
>> >the photos to tremendous cheer and applause.
>> >
>> >We need to understand that al-Sadr is not just some fringe element.
>> "The
>> >New
>> >Republic" has called him Iraq’s Dick Cheney, and his followers are
>> >expected to
>> >get up to five cabinet posts in the new government. He is a major
>> player in
>> >the
>> >United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which just won the December 2005
>> election. The
>> >UIA
>> >is headed by Aziz Al Hakim, a conservative cleric with close ties to
>> Iran.
>> >The
>> >UIA also contains the Dawa Party, whose leader lived in Iranian exile
>> for
>> >many
>> >years.
>> >
>> >Another member of the UIA is the Supreme Council for the Islamic
>> Revolution
>> >in
>> >Iraq. This group has its own militia, the 12,000-man Badr Corps,
>> which is
>> >also
>> >financed by Iranians. Iraq's current Interior Minister, Bayn Jabr,
>> used to
>> >be
>> >the head of Badr Corps. The Sunnis have very good reasons to suspect
>> that
>> >the
>> >Interior Ministry favors the Shia militias. In December, 2004, U. S.
>> >troops
>> >found 173 prisoners, mostly Sunnis, in an interrogation center run by
>> the
>> >Interior Ministry. Bayn Jabr rejected accusations that this was a
>> torture
>> >chamber, even though many showed clear signs of abuse, including
>> missing
>> >fingernails.
>> >
>> >Basra, Iraq's third largest city, is essentially under the control of
>> Shia
>> >paramilitary units. The head of Basra’s police estimates that half
>> of
>> >his force
>> >has been infiltrated by Shia militants. Last fall three women at Basra
>> >University were killed because they were unveiled in public.
>> >
>> >Quite apart from these extreme actions, the new constitution could
>> very
>> >well
>> >remove many rights that women enjoyed under the former regime.
>> Although
>> >Article
>> >14 guarantees equality for Iraqi women it also states that no
>> legislation
>> >can
>> >contradict Islamic law. This means that Iraqi women could lose their
>> >freedom to
>> >choose their own husbands and lose their inheritance rights.
>> >
>> >Basra is headquarters for 8,500 British soldiers, who, like most
>> Americans,
>> >are
>> >usually confined to their bases have learned not to intervene against
>> the
>> >militias. One Iraqi human rights activist complained that "the
>> British
>> >army
>> >handed the city to the Islamist groups as a gift." Many observers
>> predict
>> >that
>> >southern Iraq could easily become a satellite state of Iran and take
>> with
>> >it the
>> >second largest source of Iraqi oil.
>> >
>> >The insurgents have also infiltrated Baghdad’s security forces. The
>> most
>> >serious
>> >threat was a recent attempt by militants, disguised as security
>> personnel,
>> >to
>> >penetrate the Green Zone. It was later discovered that a high
>> official in
>> >the
>> >Interior Ministry was involved. If the plan had not been nipped in
>> the
>> >bud, it
>> >could have led to hostage crisis similar to the one at the American
>> embassy
>> >in
>> >Tehran in 1979-80.
>> >
>> >"The New Republic" reports that as recent as a year ago Iraqis polled
>> >favored a
>> >secular state, but now 70 percent want an Islamic state and the new
>> >constitution
>> >gives them legal grounds to have it. The disastrous situation in Iraq
>> >evidently
>> >has forced many former secularists to seek refuge what used to be only
>> >nominal
>> >religious affiliations.
>> >
>> >On March 19, 2006, former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi confirmed
>> what
>> >many
>> >have feared: "It is unfortunate that we are in civil war. We are
>> losing
>> >each
>> >day, as an average, 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not
>> more. If
>> >this
>> >is not civil war, then [only] God knows what civil war is."
>> >
>> >The Bush administration’s original goals in Iraq were focused on our
>> own
>> >interests, not Iraqi interests. Bush manufactured a case for war
>> based on
>> >he
>> >claimed were direct threats to the United States. Building a
>> democratic
>> >Iraq
>> >was an afterthought to the invasion, and Rumsfeld threw out a well
>> reasoned
>> >State Department plan for Iraqi nation building.
>> >
>> >Even if Saddam had kicked out the second group of UN inspectors, we
>> still
>> >could
>> >have contained him. The no-fly zone in the north would have continued
>> to
>> >protect the Kurds and the one in the south would have shielded the
>> Shias
>> >from
>> >attack. The second round of inspections was thorough enough to show
>> that
>> >Saddam
>> >had not rearmed and possessed no WMDs.
>> >
>> >There was a ruthless logic in the Reagan administration’s policy of
>> >supporting a
>> >secular Iraq against a radically religious Iran. Ironically, a much
>> >younger
>> >Rumsfeld, overlooking Saddam’s gassing of the Kurds and other
>> atrocities,
>> >was a
>> >willing agent in executing that policy. The Iranians have just elected
>> a
>> >president far more radical than previous executives, and we have
>> pushed for
>> >Iraqi elections that resulted in the victory of pro-Iranian parties.
>> >Bush's war
>> >in Iraq has produced the worst possible outcome for our interests in
>> the
>> >Middle
>> >East.
>> >
>> >Iraq's oil production is half what it was before the war and basic
>> >utilities
>> >such as water, electricity, heating oil, and sewer are also worse. I
>> >wonder how
>> >many Iraqis agree with this professor from Basra University who had
>> this to
>> >say
>> >on the third anniversary of the war: "All in all, our life is worse
>> than
>> >when we
>> >used to live under Saddam because now we are under fire. Now we can be
>> >killed
>> >any time on the streets."
>> >
>> >See my "Deceptions of War" at
>> > http://users.adelphia.net/~nickgier/deceptions.htm .
>> >My sources for column above were the Associated Press, the BBC, The
>> >Washington
>> >Post, the New York Times, The New York Review of Books, The Nation,
>> and The
>> >New
>> >Republic. I will provide specific documentation upon request.
>> >
>> >_____________________________________________________
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>> > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>> > http://www.fsr.net
>> > mailto: Vision2020 at moscow.com
>> >
>>
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