[Vision2020] Inconvenient Truth -- What WE REALLY HAVE TO DO: " Apollo Project"

Wed Aug 30 12:50:41 PDT 2006

Chris et. al.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for biofuels, and perhaps you are aware that
Iogen is hoping to soon open a large cellulosic biofuel plant in Southern
Idaho using primarily straw from Idaho farms.  And they want US government
loan guarantees for their investors in case the project fails.  Iogen knows
this business, and as the article on biofuels I reference below from
"Nature" mentions, Iogen runs the largest bio refinery plant in the world
near Ottawa, Canada.

But quickly, to address the taxation approach to lowering gasoline
consumption, if there is no cheaper practical alternative to power
transportation after raising gasoline taxes dramatically (resulting in 7-10
dollar a gallon gas), our economy would be in serious jeopardy with such an
approach, and politically such a move might be suicide, unless alternatives
could be quickly implemented.  Realistic alternative
energy technologies with a widespread infrastructure for implementation are
required to replace fossil fuels, unless we want to sacrifice aspects of our
lifestyle and economy that many will fight tooth and nail to maintain.

The most realistic estimates of biofuels potential indicate they should not
be counted on to solve (though they can be part of the solution) the fossil
fuel depletion/global warming crisis, for a number of reasons.  Read this
analysis from Nature magazine offered at the link below, where the
optimistic prediction is offered that biofuels can replace 25% of our
current petroleum needs in the USA, which is a huge contribution.  But US
consumption of fossil fuel and fossil fuel sourced energy (coal fired plants
are expected to continue to increase consumption of coal for the cheap
electricity this provides, with current US electricity production 50% from
coal, and US coal reserves the largest of any nation on Earth) continues
to increase, so biofuels are playing a game of catch-up with CO2 emissions,
nor are they expected to replace the cheap electrical energy from coal.  And
to expect biofuels to power the huge emerging industrial economies in India
and China with over 2 billion in population is very problematic, economies
that are expected in this century to consume more fossil fuel than the USA,
who is currently the world's largest consumer.  Read also in the "Nature"
article about the continuing debate among experts regarding the efficiency
of biofuel production, along with other land use/food
supply/environmental problems.  The overall thrust of this analysis is more
optimistic than others I have read.  It seems that some nations are situated
rather well to use biofuel for much of their fuel needs, other nations not:

http://www.gbev.org/pdf/Nature%20biotech%20biofuels.pdf

What the Bush administration has not done, that is advocated by many energy
experts studying the fossil fuel depletion/global warming crisis, is push
for an "Apollo Project" styled effort to the tune of 100s of billions of
dollars (this can come from the private sector in part, as it already is) to
quickly develop alternative non-CO2 emitting energy sources, and make
practical application widespread.  It is clear that the marketplace is
making so much profit maintaining the current mostly fossil fuel based
economic system that there is limited profit incentive to make a radical
shift away from fossil fuels.  Opening ANWR and increased off shore oil
drilling continues to be pushed in the US Congress by energy corporations to
help solve USA dependence on foreign oil.  If biofuels were such a
practical and economical solution, why the continuing push to open ANWR and
for more offshore drilling?  Given the limited production and availability
of biofuels and biofuel ready vehicles in the USA, does the oil industry
need to worry very much about biofuels challenging their dominant position
in the USA, necessitating an attempt to put biofuels out of business by
dropping gas prices below 2 dollars a gallon, as you suggested they could
do?

http://www.grist.org/news/muck/2006/03/03/griscom-little/

Quote from this article:

His brother would seem to be conflicted as well. Only a month ago, President
Bush declared that the time had come to break America's addiction to
oil<http://www.grist.org/news/daily/2006/02/01/1/index.html>.
Now, Bush and his buddies are scrounging around for their next fix.
------------------------------

Who can say the Bush administration is really addressing the fossil fuel
depletion/global warming crisis, nor previously the Clinton Administration,
for that matter, while CAFE standards have not been raised dramatically,
though efforts are underway:

http://obama.senate.gov/press/060719-senators_introduce_legislation_to_reduce_gasoline_consumption_by_half_a_trillion_gallons/index.html
-------------------

This "Apollo Project" for new energy technology and widespread roll out can
involve every potential replacement for fossil fuels (or CO2 sequestration
technology, which if made practical for coal fired plants, would allow
continuing energy from coal limiting the global warming impact), from
hydrogen to biofuels, wind and solar, nuclear fission and fusion, fuel
cells, and new battery and/or chemical energy storage technologies.  It goes
without saying this effort should be combined with aggressive energy
conservation measures, one of the most important being to dramatically raise
the CAFE standards in the US:

http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/news.asp?year=&id=4975

http://www.apolloalliance.org/about_the_alliance/

http://www.apolloalliance.org/jobs/index.cfm

http://rooseveltinstitution.org/policy/38_we_need_an_apollo_proje

---------

Ted Moffett

On 8/24/06, Chris Storhok <cstorhok at co.fairbanks.ak.us> wrote:
>
>   Tom,
>
> I hate to defend the Bush administration on this one but they certainly
> have not terminated the bio-diesel program.  The DOE released a call for
> proposals for creation of two bio-energy research centers on August 1, each
> center will be funded up to $125 million over 5 years (needless to say the
> Fairbanks North Star Borough and University of Alaska Fairbanks are
> preparing an application).  The DOE/USDA is also supporting a "Biomass
> Research and Development Initiative" at $14 million, the "Commercial
> Demonstration of an Integrated Biorefinery System for Production of Liquid
> Transportation Biofuels, Biobased chemical, Substitutes for Petroleum-based
> Feedstocks and Products, and Biomass-based Heat/Power at $80 million.    I
> will concede that they have cut research funding; however that funding has
> been transferred to development/implementation projects.
>
>
>
> On the big oil company front, Shell is leading the charge to develop
> biofuels.  Their European divisions are actively constructing several
> biofuels facilities throughout Germany, the Baltic States, Russia, and
> Poland.  BP is ramping up their biofuel efforts in Canada and Great Britain
> (provided they don't go broke because of their "minor" problems on the North
> Slope).  If big oil truly wanted to kill bio-fuels they would drop the price
> of gas and diesel below $2/gallon, the current price level that bio-fuels
> programs need just to break even.
>
>
>
> We have three bio-fuels projects that are underway; the first is install a
> modest 15 ton/day operation to convert wood waste and paper that is
> presently dumped in the landfill into a bio-diesel product that our local
> utility will use in its power plants.  Second is a program designed to wean
> Alaska bush villages from expensive diesel ($6/gallon when delivered) using
> bio-diesel from their local biomass with the components manufactured
> assembled and tested here in Fairbanks; and third is a larger long term
> program to create bio-fuel from a mix of locally grown canola, willows,
> black spruce and so forth to the tune of around 30 million gallons of B20.
> We are working with growers in Delta Junction, UAF, and the USDA to complete
> field testing of canola this year.  A small press will give us enough fuel
> to test its characteristics in cold climates
>
>
>
> On a larger front local visionaries have proposed a 50 year program to
> completely replace (on a sustainable basis) North Slope crude in the TAPS
> system with bio-fuel created through harvesting of large tree farms planted
> with local varieties of really fast growing trees.  I planted one of these
> seedlings; a variety of Pacific Willow, this spring, the tree is now just
> over 12 feet.  (My wife hates the thing now because of its scrawny size, she
> was expecting a smaller dense willow).  The thing has little bulk to it but
> I have been told that as long as the moose do not eat it, its girth will
> increase dramatically in the next few years.
>
>
>
> I am of the firm belief that bio-fuel projects should be local economic
> development efforts.  Just imagine if LEDC, the Port of Whitman, UI, WSU,
> and others were to team up on such a project.  The intellectual capacity of
> the Palouse is remarkable, combine that with abundant agricultural lands,
> large forests and local will power, I am very willing to bet that the
> Palouse region can produce far more than enough bio-fuels to completely
> remove big oil from your local picture.  Imagine shutting off the leakage of
> local dollars to big oil and keeping that money in your community; imagine
> the job creation potential; farm income potential; and so forth that such a
> program would award the region.     Your government leaders will be silly
> not to embrace such a project.
>
>
>
> Take care,
>
> Chris
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>  ------------------------------
>
> *From:* vision2020-bounces at moscow.com [mailto:vision
> 2020-bounces at moscow.com] *On Behalf Of *Tom Hansen
> *Sent:* Thursday, August 24, 2006 10:55 AM
> *To:* 'Art Deco'; 'Vision 2020'
>
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Inconvenient Truth -- What WE REALLY HAVE TO
> DO
>
>
>
> One good idea would be to re-invest in bio-diesel research.  The program
> was promoted and supported under the Clinton administration and terminated
> under the Bush administration.
>
>
>
> Simply coming up with an alternate fuel source will not work.  It needs
> government support.
>
>
>
> Remember the "Get the Lead Out!" campaign that was mandated by government
> policy?  It worked.  If the government mandates that all vehicles will be
> fueled with bio-diesel by the year 2012, you can bet your last gallon of
> regular gas that Exxon, Standard Oil, etc. etc. will do their best to get
> into the bio-diesel market.
>
>
>
> Has anybody got any ideas on how to develop some SERIOUS interest in
> alternate fuels, the kind of ideas that will "spark a fire" of major
> interest within the George "All for Oil" Bush administration?
>
>
>
> Tom Hansen
>
> Moscow, Idaho
>
>
>
> "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving
> safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in
> sideways, chocolate in one hand, a drink in the other, body thoroughly used
> up, totally worn out and screaming 'WOO HOO. What a ride!'"
>  ------------------------------
>
> *From:* vision2020-bounces at moscow.com [mailto:vision
> 2020-bounces at moscow.com] *On Behalf Of *Art Deco
> *Sent:* Thursday, August 24, 2006 11:41 AM
> *To:* Vision 2020
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Inconvenient Truth -- What WE REALLY HAVE TO
> DO
>
>
>
> God (alleged, choose the one that pleases you most) save the Queen!
>
>
>
> Donovan and I agree on at least some fundamental outlooks.
>
>
>
> 1.    There is a limited amount of terrestrial/atmospheric resources.
> There are and will be too many people competing for these resources.
> Further, overuse of some of these resources creates life/quality of life
> threatening environmental problems for all plants and animals including
> humankind.  Think about this:  What would happen if at least half of the
> world's human population lived at the same standard of resource usage as the
> US and western Europe?
>
>
>
> 2.    Petroleum resources are not only quite limited, but their uses are a
> leading cause of many life/quality of life threatening problems.  Hence, a
> very high tax on such products may help motivate a search for much better,
> kinder to the earth, plants and animals (including humankind) alternatives,
> and also decrease their usage and the associated problems.
>
>
>
>
>
> However, I also think the pessimistic outlook of Nils that we lack the
> political will to do what needs to be done before it is too late is also
> accurate.
>
>
> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
> deco at moscow.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> *From:* Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
>
> *To:* Nils Peterson <nils_peterson at wsu.edu> ; vision2020 at moscow.com ;
> areaman at moscow.com
>
> *Sent:* Thursday, August 24, 2006 9:30 AM
>
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] Inconvenient Truth -- What WE REALLY HAVE TO
> DO
>
>
>
> Niles writes:
>
> "I doubt we'll find the political will to
>
> take the scale of actions Donovan suggests."
>
>
>
> Niles, if we lack the will to do what it takes to save the Earth,
>
> then the Earth is surly doomed.
>
>
>
> Dan Carscallen writes:
>
>
>
> "Hey, you gotta start somewhere."
>
>
>
> What's the point of building a catapult to go 1/4 the way
>
> across a canyon we must cross, you are better off staying where you are. We will
>
> not save the Earth if this generation does not do something drastic
>
> and soon.
>
>
>
>
>
> The only reason buses have real ridership is because of economic
>
> necessity of the riders.
>
>
>
> Nobody WANTS to ride a bus. They smell, they are crowded, unsafe, unclean,
>
> inconvenient, slow, and uncomfortable. People do it mostly because it is their best
>
> option, not because they are trying to save the Earth.
>
>
>
> If you really want to raise bus ridership raise gas prices, make them clean,
>
> safer, more convenient,
>
>  and much more comfortable. Add cushy seats that have
>
> online access, more buses, more locations, and give them their own lane.
>
>
>
> For Moscow, a trolley on the old railroad tracks would work nicely.
>
>
>
> Best,
>
>
>
> _DJA
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Nils Peterson <nils_peterson at wsu.edu>* wrote:
>
> Thanks Dan for sharing information on Valley Transit ridership. I
> understand
> that they have a new route for commuters from Lewiston to Moscow. Perhaps
> we
> need periodic reminders of the data that these systems are growing.
>
> And thanks for pointing out that we can, and need, to start small --
> because
> without that personal action, I doubt we'll find the political will to
> take
> the scale of actions Donovan suggests.
>
>
> On 8/24/06 8:13 AM, "areaman> wrote:
> Donovan says:
> "You guys are thinking so small, so tiny. It doesn't help save the earth
> even a day to do these tiny things."
>
> Hey, you gotta start somewhere.
>
> An aside to Joe: Believe you me, my good buddy Tom LaPointe is getting
> the word out there as far as Moscow Valley Transit is concerned. Would
> he like more people to ride the bus? Heck yes, but I'm here to tell you
> that I've seen charts and graphs and whatnot presented by Tom that shows
> nothing but increasing ridership for Moscow Valley Transit. While I'm
> not a guy who would normally ride the bus -- various reasons, including
> a short bicycle or motorcycle commute to work -- I'm all in favor of
> having that option for people.
>
> DC
>
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