[Vision2020] God, Guns, and Gays

[Art Deco aka W. Fox]

Ted, et al,

I think it oversimplification to list two or three reasons for Kerry's or any 
candidate's loss in a closely contested election.

Human beings and their decision processes are, on the average, quite complex, 
not totally rational, to some extent unpredictable, and as of now, partially 
unknowable.

While there may be some single issue voters, most make up their minds based on a 
number of factors, some unknown even to themselves.

Without giving a long exegesis, given a single, simple yes/no issue, there are 
at least two factors to examine:

1.    Would a given respondent answer "yes" or "no and
2.    What is the intensity of the respondents "yes" or "no".  On a scale of 0 
to 100, what, given a respondent's current knowledge is, the strength of their 
belief?  If it is near 50, then further information of any kind is likely to 
change both the answer and the strength of belief.

Further, most issues are far more complex then "yes" or "no", with many 
"depends."  Given the large amount of issues, the different knowledge and value 
bases that different people operate upon, and the different individual decision 
methods employed, saying what and why voters did or will do is, in most cases, 
an extremely complex, not always accurate, guess.

For acting in the future, such guess are necessary and sometimes useful.  Let us 
not forget, they are guesses made without a great deal of knowledge of 
individuals but with quasi-statistical models embodying many, many assumptions.

Wayne

Art Deco  (Wayne Fox)
deco at moscow.com

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Tbertruss at aol.com
  To: vision2020 at moscow.com
  Sent: Thursday, November 11, 2004 12:27 PM
  Subject: [Vision2020] "God, Guns and Gays"



  All:

  It was mentioned on Charlie Rose last night on PBS that "God, Guns and Gays" 
decided the presidential contest between Kerry and Bush.

  If this is the truth, with all the other issues that should be front and 
center, who else thinks that democracy in the USA is failing if the voters voted 
based on this kind of thinking?

  Ted Moffett 
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