<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2523" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>Ted, et al,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>I think it oversimplification to list two
or three reasons for Kerry's or any candidate's loss in a closely contested
election.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>Human beings and their decision processes
are, on the average, quite complex, not totally rational, to some extent
unpredictable, and as of now, partially unknowable.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>While there may be some single issue
voters, most make up their minds based on a number of factors, some unknown even
to themselves.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>Without giving a long exegesis, given a
single, simple yes/no issue, there are at least two factors to
examine:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>1. Would a given
respondent answer "yes" or "no and</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>2. What is the intensity
of the respondents "yes" or "no". On a scale of 0 to
100, what, given a respondent's current knowledge is, the strength of
their belief? If it is near 50, then further information of any kind is
likely to change both the answer and the strength of belief.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>Further, most issues are far more complex
then "yes" or "no", with many "depends." Given the large amount of issues,
the different knowledge and value bases that different people operate upon, and
the different individual decision methods employed, saying what and why
voters did or will do is, in most cases, an extremely complex, not always
accurate, guess.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref" size=4>For acting in the future, such guess are
necessary and sometimes useful. Let us not forget, they are guesses made
without a great deal of knowledge of individuals but with quasi-statistical
models embodying many, many assumptions.</FONT></DIV><FONT face="Verdana Ref"
size=4>
<DIV><BR>Wayne</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Art Deco (Wayne Fox)<BR><A
href="mailto:deco@moscow.com">deco@moscow.com</A><BR></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=Tbertruss@aol.com
href="mailto:Tbertruss@aol.com">Tbertruss@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 11, 2004 12:27
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] "God, Guns and
Gays"</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10"><BR>All:<BR><BR>It was mentioned on Charlie
Rose last night on PBS that "God, Guns and Gays" decided the presidential
contest between Kerry and Bush.<BR><BR>If this is the truth, with all the
other issues that should be front and center, who else thinks that democracy
in the USA is failing if the voters voted based on this kind of
thinking?<BR><BR>Ted Moffett</FONT>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>