[Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Joan Opyr
auntiestablishment@hotmail.com
Thu, 6 May 2004 15:40:30 -0700
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Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, detailing speakers and events at=
a recent conservative gathering, for CNSNews, 5/5/04: =20
". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing brie=
fing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when almost=
all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight tilt t=
oward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. =20
What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came through=
loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to los=
e, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose. =20
He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is un=
decided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided. Find=
ing such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told u=
s. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to =
vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low. =20
Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 when John A=
dams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his opponent. He s=
urprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things that were said by=
both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we hear that this is t=
he nastiest election in history, it is not necessarily the case. =20
Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two Americas. Th=
e social and political differences between the "blue" states, which Al Go=
re carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush carried in that elec=
tion, are profound in every category and becoming more so. =20
Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he carried in 2000=
plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore carried. If he=
can just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry wins. Zogby sugges=
ted it might be possible for Bush to carry the popular vote but lose the =
election, the reverse of what happened in 2000 when Gore had more than a =
half million votes more than Bush. =20
Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he might just =
lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up from both=
the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad candidate he m=
ight be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the occasion at the end of=
the campaign, when it counts. =20
Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the favorite=
against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came alive and be=
at him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly underestimated. H=
e thinks veterans will be crucial in this election and right now Kerry ha=
s an edge with veterans because he has emphasized them so much and becaus=
e there is some dissatisfaction with the way that Bush is handling the wa=
r. That however, according to Zogby, could change. =20
While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we re-elec=
t the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we toss him o=
ut of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby believes th=
is election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be another nail-=
biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, although the White Ho=
use disputes that. They believe they have an excellent chance to carry Oh=
io. No Republican in modern times has won the Presidency without Ohio. =20
After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 p.m., we =
adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments. The p=
articipants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby shook them=
to the core." Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : http=
://explorer.msn.com
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<HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><P>Snipped from a p=
iece by Paul M. Weyrich, detailing speakers and events at a rec=
ent conservative gathering, for <I>CNSNews, 5/5/04:</I> <BR></P=
> <P>". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing=
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when a=
lmost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight t=
ilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. </P> <P>What=
he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came through lou=
d and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to lose, h=
e believes this election is Kerry's to lose. <P>He said that usually at =
this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is undecided, but this year t=
here only 5% of the electorate is undecided. Finding such people when pol=
ling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told us. Moreover, the soft vo=
te, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to vote for the other guy, =
is only 10% -- a historic low. <P>Zogby believes that this election most=
resembles that of 1800 when John Adams was running for re-election. Thom=
as Jefferson was his opponent. He surprised the group by reciting some of=
the nasty things that were said by both sides in that election. Zogby sa=
id that when we hear that this is the nastiest election in history, it is=
not necessarily the case. <P>Zogby went on to detail his thesis that th=
ere really are two Americas. The social and political differences between=
the "blue" states, which Al Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, =
which Bush carried in that election, are profound in every category and b=
ecoming more so. <P>Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states th=
at he carried in 2000 plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep wha=
t Gore carried. If he can just add a state or two to the Gore total...Ker=
ry wins. Zogby suggested it might be possible for Bush to carry the popul=
ar vote but lose the election, the reverse of what happened in 2000 when =
Gore had more than a half million votes more than Bush. <P>Zogby told us=
that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he might just lose it. He a=
bsolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up from both the left and=
right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad candidate he might be repla=
ced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the occasion at the end of the campaign=
, when it counts. <P>Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thou=
ght to be the favorite against Kerry but who lost a close election when K=
erry came alive and beat him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is consta=
ntly underestimated. He thinks veterans will be crucial in this election =
and right now Kerry has an edge with veterans because he has emphasized t=
hem so much and because there is some dissatisfaction with the way that B=
ush is handling the war. That however, according to Zogby, could change. =
<P>While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we re-=
elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we toss h=
im out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby believe=
s this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be another n=
ail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, although the Whit=
e House disputes that. They believe they have an excellent chance to carr=
y Ohio. No Republican in modern times has won the Presidency without Ohio=
<P>After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 p.m=
, we adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments.=
The participants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby shoo=
k them to the core." <P> </P></BODY></HTML><br clear=3Da=
ll><hr>Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : <a href=3D'ht=
tp://explorer.msn.com'>http://explorer.msn.com</a><br></p>
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