[Vision2020] Falsehood Stability

Joan Opyr auntiestablishment@hotmail.com
Thu, 6 May 2004 13:12:30 -0700


------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C4336B.C90287C0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Dear Visionaries:
I've taken the P. Kraut challenge and read Daniel Drezner's essay, "The O=
utsourcing Bogeyman,"  http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83304=
/daniel-w-drezner/the-outsourcing-bogeyman.html.  Very interesting and we=
ll written, though his arguments are not new to me.  I've read them all b=
efore, mostly in The Economist.  I am wondering, however, if Pat made it =
all the way to the last paragraph:
"The refrain of 'this time, it's different' is not new in the debate over=
 free trade. In the 1980s, the Japanese variety of capitalism -- with its=
 omniscient industrial policy and high nontariff barriers -- was supposed=
 to supplant the U.S. system. Fifteen years later, that prediction sounds=
 absurd. During the 1990s, the passage of NAFTA and the Uruguay Round of =
trade talks were supposed to create a 'giant sucking sound' as jobs left =
the United States. Contrary to such fears, tens of millions of new jobs w=
ere created. Once the economy improves, the political hysteria over outso=
urcing will also disappear."
I wonder if Pat read this because I recall having an exchange with her so=
me months ago over Bill Clinton's signing of NAFTA, in which she was high=
ly critical of that trade agreement, implying that it was largely to blam=
e for the current high unemployment rate.  Has Pat changed her mind about=
 NAFTA?  Does she now think it was a good thing?  Does she believe that B=
ill Clinton (gasp) actually knew a thing or two about economics?
Nah.  So, to address a few of Mr. Drezner's points, let's examine what he=
 has to say about the benefits of outsourcing in light of two of his othe=
r observations:
1. "The problem of offshore outsourcing is less one of economics than of =
psychology -- people feel that their jobs are threatened. The best way to=
 help those actually affected, and to calm the nerves of those who fear t=
hat they will be, is to expand the criteria under which the Trade Adjustm=
ent Assistance (TAA) program applies to displaced workers."
And,
2. "Critics . . . are right that offshore outsourcing deserves attention =
and that some measures to assist affected workers are called for. But if =
their exaggerated alarmism succeeds in provoking protectionist responses =
from lawmakers, it will do far more harm than good, to the U.S. economy a=
nd to American workers."
The number of white-collar jobs that will be outsourced by the year 2015 =
is estimated at 3.3 million, with the sectors most affected being financi=
al services and IT.  Mr. Drezner qualifies this by pointing out that the =
3.3 million in losses are gross, not net, and that they will be spread ou=
t over several years, thus averaging only a few hundred thousand per year=
  Happily, jobs that require "geographic proximity" will be largely unaf=
fected.  In other words, great news if you're a waitress or a hairdresser=
, but not so good if you're a banker.  Also, statistical probability bein=
g what it is, the odds are good that in a 130 million-job economy, you pe=
rsonally won't be one of that few hundred thousand.  Phew!  That's a reli=
ef, isn't it?  =20
Unless, of course, you're familiar with Zeno's Paradox.  It's no comfort =
to the unemployed for CEOs, economists, and politicians to behave as if t=
here is no motion in the economy because it all works out in the end.  IT=
 jobs lost today will be replaced with better, richer, and as-yet-unimagi=
ned jobs in the future  -- because the arrow of financial misfortune must=
 arrive at the middle before it arrives at the end and so on, and so on, =
ad infinitum, it will never actually hit you.  Think about that the next =
time someone fires you.
I am not -- and neither is John Kerry -- a die-hard protectionist.  Georg=
e Bush did no one any favors by slapping high tariffs on foreign steel.  =
First, because the measure was temporary (a cynical political fix) it did=
n=E2=80=99t do anything in the long run to help displaced American steelw=
orkers.  Second, it harmed other U. S. manufacturers, who rely on low ste=
el prices, and thus exacerbated unemployment in this country.  What would=
 have been better, as Mr. Drezner himself suggests, is a greater emphasis=
 on assistance for displaced workers.  But what has Mr. Bush done?  He's =
cut funds for worker re-training.  He's cut financial aid for college stu=
dents.  He's made it infinitely more difficult for displaced workers to f=
ind the support they need to keep their families and their finances intac=
t while they look, train, and sadly wait for these ephemeral new-and-impr=
oved jobs that Mr. Bush has promised his economic plan will generate.
We have large, structural problems in the U. S. economy that Mr. Bush's s=
trategy of tax cuts for the wealthy and  deficit spending far into the fo=
reseeable future will not fix.  Household debt burdens are unsustainable.=
  State and local governments are still in deep financial doo-doo.  We ha=
ve a giant trade deficit.  People are nervous, insecure, and frightened. =
 They need better jobs, higher wages, healthcare reform, and better, more=
 affordable, more accessible education.  The poor and the middle class in=
 this country are losing ground, rapidly.  If Pat Kraut is truly on a "lo=
wer rung," then her tax cut is illusory.  Interest, inflation, and the na=
tional debt will soon eat it.  If she's in fact on a middle rung, then sh=
e needs to familiarize herself with a little something called the Alterna=
tive Minimum Tax.  In the next few years, that nasty little glitch in the=
 U. S. tax code will wipe out most or all of Mr. Bush's cuts for the midd=
le class.  And he knows it.
Don't be fooled by the smiling face, the folksy manner, and the cowboy bo=
ots.  Mr. Bush is like the big fat bully on the school playground -- when=
 he sits down on the teeter-totter, poor little thirty-pound Jimmy is goi=
ng to sail through the air and straight into the monkey bars.   =20
Joan Opyr/Auntie EstablishmentGet more from the Web.  FREE MSN Explorer d=
ownload : http://explorer.msn.com

------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C4336B.C90287C0
Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV><SPAN style=3D=
"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">Dear Visionaries:=
</SPAN></DIV> <DIV> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FO=
NT-FAMILY: Georgia">I've taken the P. Kraut challenge and read Daniel Dre=
zner's essay, "The Outsourcing Bogeyman,"<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes=
">&nbsp; <A href=3D"http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83304/da=
niel-w-drezner/the-outsourcing-bogeyman.html">http://www.foreignaffairs.o=
rg/20040501faessay83304/daniel-w-drezner/the-outsourcing-bogeyman.html</A=
>.&nbsp; </SPAN>Very interesting and well written, though his arguments a=
re not new to me.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I've rea=
d them all before, mostly in The Economist.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: y=
es">&nbsp; </SPAN>I am wondering, however, if Pat made it all the way to =
the last paragraph:<?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns =3D "urn:schemas-micro=
soft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-S=
IZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">"The refrain of 'this ti=
me, it's different' is not new in the debate over free trade. In the 1980=
s, the Japanese variety of capitalism -- with its omniscient industrial p=
olicy and high nontariff barriers -- was supposed to supplant the </SPAN>=
<?xml:namespace prefix =3D st1 ns =3D "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:s=
marttags" /><st1:country-region><st1:place><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5=
pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">U.S.</SPAN></st1:place></st1:coun=
try-region><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: G=
eorgia"> system. Fifteen years later, that prediction sounds absurd. Duri=
ng the 1990s, the passage of NAFTA and the Uruguay Round of trade talks w=
ere supposed to create a 'giant sucking sound' as jobs left the </SPAN><s=
t1:country-region><st1:place><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: bla=
ck; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">United States</SPAN></st1:place></st1:country-r=
egion><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgi=
a">. Contrary to such fears, tens of millions of new jobs were created. O=
nce the economy improves, the political hysteria over outsourcing will al=
so disappear."</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: bla=
ck; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">I wonder if Pat read this because I recall havi=
ng an exchange with&nbsp;her some months ago over Bill Clinton's signing =
of NAFTA, in which she was highly critical of that trade agreement, imply=
ing that it was largely to blame for the current high unemployment rate.<=
SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Has Pat changed her mind a=
bout NAFTA?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Does she now t=
hink it was a good thing?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>=
Does she believe that Bill Clinton (gasp) actually knew a thing or two ab=
out economics?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt;=
 COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">Nah.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes=
">&nbsp; </SPAN>So, to address a few of Mr. Drezner's points, let's exami=
ne what he has to say about the benefits of outsourcing in light of two o=
f his other observations:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SI=
ZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">1. "The problem of offsho=
re outsourcing is less one of economics than of psychology -- people feel=
 that their jobs are threatened. The best way to help those actually affe=
cted, and to calm the nerves of those who fear that they will be, is to e=
xpand the criteria under which the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) prog=
ram applies to displaced workers."</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE=
: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">And,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> =
<P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">=
2. "Critics . . . are right that offshore outsourcing deserves attention =
and that some measures to assist affected workers are called for. But if =
their exaggerated alarmism succeeds in provoking protectionist responses =
from lawmakers, it will do far more harm than good, to the </SPAN><st1:co=
untry-region><st1:place><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; F=
ONT-FAMILY: Georgia">U.S.</SPAN></st1:place></st1:country-region><SPAN st=
yle=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"> economy an=
d to American workers."</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; C=
OLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">The number of white-collar jobs that w=
ill be outsourced by the year 2015 is estimated at 3.3 million, with the =
sectors most affected being financial services and IT.<SPAN style=3D"mso-=
spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Mr. Drezner qualifies this by pointing out t=
hat the 3.3 million in losses are gross, not net, and that they will be s=
pread out over several years, thus averaging only a few hundred thousand =
per year.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Happily, jobs th=
at require "geographic proximity" will be largely unaffected.<SPAN style=3D=
"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>In other words, great news&nbsp;if you'=
re a waitress or a hairdresser, but not so good if you're a banker.<SPAN =
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Also, statistical probability b=
eing what it is, the odds are good that in a 130 million-job economy, you=
 personally won't be one of that few hundred thousand.<SPAN style=3D"mso-=
spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Phew!<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp=
; </SPAN>That's a relief, isn't it?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbs=
p; </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COL=
OR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">Unless, of course, you're familiar with =
Zeno's Paradox.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>It's no co=
mfort to the unemployed for CEOs, economists, and politicians to behave a=
s if there is no motion in the economy because it all works out in the en=
d.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>IT jobs lost today will=
 be replaced with better, richer, and as-yet-unimagined jobs in the futur=
e&nbsp; -- because the arrow of financial misfortune must arrive at the m=
iddle before it arrives at the end and so on, and so on, ad infinitum, it=
 will never actually hit you.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </S=
PAN>Think about that the next time someone fires you.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></=
P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgi=
a">I am not&nbsp;-- and neither is John Kerry -- a die-hard protectionist=
<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>George Bush did no one a=
ny favors by slapping high tariffs on foreign steel.<SPAN style=3D"mso-sp=
acerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>First, because the measure was temporary (a cy=
nical political fix) it didn=E2=80=99t do anything in the long run to hel=
p displaced American steelworkers.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp=
; </SPAN>Second, it harmed other </SPAN><st1:country-region><st1:place><S=
PAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">U. S.=
</SPAN></st1:place></st1:country-region><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt;=
 COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"> manufacturers, who rely on low stee=
l prices, and thus exacerbated unemployment in this country.<SPAN style=3D=
"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>What would have been better, as Mr. Dre=
zner himself suggests, is a greater emphasis on assistance for displaced =
workers.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>But what has Mr. =
Bush done?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>He's cut funds =
for worker re-training.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>He=
's cut financial aid for college students.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: ye=
s">&nbsp; </SPAN>He's made it infinitely more difficult for displaced wor=
kers to find the support they need to keep their families and their finan=
ces intact while they look, train, and sadly wait for these ephemeral new=
-and-improved jobs that Mr. Bush has promised his economic plan will gene=
rate.</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-=
FAMILY: Georgia">We have large, structural problems in the U. S. economy =
that Mr. Bush's strategy of tax cuts for the wealthy and&nbsp; deficit sp=
ending&nbsp;far into the foreseeable future will not fix.&nbsp;&nbsp;Hous=
ehold debt burdens are unsustainable.&nbsp; State and local governments a=
re still in deep financial doo-doo.&nbsp; We have a giant&nbsp;trade&nbsp=
;deficit.&nbsp; People are nervous, insecure, and frightened.&nbsp;&nbsp;=
They need better jobs, higher wages, healthcare reform,&nbsp;and better, =
more affordable, more accessible&nbsp;education.&nbsp; The poor and the m=
iddle class in this country are losing ground, rapidly.&nbsp; </SPAN><SPA=
N style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">If Pat =
Kraut is truly on&nbsp;a "lower rung," then her tax cut is illusory.&nbsp=
; Interest, inflation, and the national debt will soon eat it.&nbsp; If s=
he's in fact on a middle rung, then she needs to familiarize herself with=
 a little something called the Alternative Minimum Tax.&nbsp; In the&nbsp=
;next few years, that nasty little&nbsp;glitch in the U. S. tax code will=
 wipe out most&nbsp;or all of Mr. Bush's&nbsp;cuts for the middle class.&=
nbsp; And he knows it.</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; CO=
LOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">Don't be fooled by the smiling face, th=
e folksy manner, and the cowboy boots.&nbsp; Mr. Bush is&nbsp;like the bi=
g fat&nbsp;bully on the school playground&nbsp;--&nbsp;when he sits down =
on the teeter-totter,&nbsp;poor little thirty-pound Jimmy&nbsp;is going t=
o sail through the air and straight into the monkey bars.</SPAN><SPAN sty=
le=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia">&nbsp;&nbsp;=
&nbsp;</SPAN></P><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAM=
ILY: Georgia; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-f=
amily: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language:=
 EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Joan Opyr/Auntie Establishment</SPAN></=
DIV></BODY></HTML><br clear=3Dall><hr>Get more from the Web.  FREE MSN Ex=
plorer download : <a href=3D'http://explorer.msn.com'>http://explorer.msn=
com</a><br></p>

------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C4336B.C90287C0--