[Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Pat Kraut
pkraut@moscow.com
Thu, 6 May 2004 22:23:11 -0700
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This is most interesting. Anyone brave enough to actually make a =
prediction on this election is amazing. I for one would not make any =
call at all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is probably the same =
as this state but that is not a surprise. It is the surprise states that =
will make the difference. It will make for a long night.=20
PK
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Joan Opyr=20
To: Vision2020 Moscow=20
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 3:40 PM
Subject: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, detailing speakers and events =
at a recent conservative gathering, for CNSNews, 5/5/04:=20
". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing =
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when =
almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight =
tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections.=20
What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came =
through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as =
Bush's to lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.=20
He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is =
undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided. =
Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he =
told us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be =
persuaded to vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.=20
Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 when =
John Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his =
opponent. He surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things =
that were said by both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we =
hear that this is the nastiest election in history, it is not =
necessarily the case.=20
Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two Americas. =
The social and political differences between the "blue" states, which Al =
Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush carried in that =
election, are profound in every category and becoming more so.=20
Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he carried in =
2000 plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore carried. =
If he can just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry wins. Zogby =
suggested it might be possible for Bush to carry the popular vote but =
lose the election, the reverse of what happened in 2000 when Gore had =
more than a half million votes more than Bush.=20
Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he might =
just lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up =
from both the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad =
candidate he might be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the =
occasion at the end of the campaign, when it counts.=20
Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the =
favorite against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came =
alive and beat him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly =
underestimated. He thinks veterans will be crucial in this election and =
right now Kerry has an edge with veterans because he has emphasized them =
so much and because there is some dissatisfaction with the way that Bush =
is handling the war. That however, according to Zogby, could change.=20
While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we =
re-elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we =
toss him out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby =
believes this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be =
another nail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, =
although the White House disputes that. They believe they have an =
excellent chance to carry Ohio. No Republican in modern times has won =
the Presidency without Ohio=20
After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 p.m, =
we adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments. =
The participants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby =
shook them to the core." =20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This is most interesting. Anyone brave enough to =
actually=20
make a prediction on this election is amazing. I for one would not make =
any call=20
at all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is probably the same as =
this state=20
but that is not a surprise. It is the surprise states that will make the =
difference. It will make for a long night. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PK</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dauntiestablishment@hotmail.com=20
href=3D"mailto:auntiestablishment@hotmail.com">Joan Opyr</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020 Moscow</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 06, 2004 =
3:40=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Kerry's =
election to=20
lose?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, =
detailing speakers and=20
events at a recent conservative gathering, for <I>CNSNews,=20
5/5/04:</I> <BR></P>
<P>". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most =
intriguing=20
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when =
almost=20
all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight tilt =
toward=20
the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. </P>
<P>What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came =
through=20
loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to =
lose, he=20
believes this election is Kerry's to lose.=20
<P>He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate =
is=20
undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided. =
Finding=20
such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told =
us.=20
Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to =
vote for=20
the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.=20
<P>Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 when =
John=20
Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his opponent. =
He=20
surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things that were =
said by=20
both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we hear that this is =
the=20
nastiest election in history, it is not necessarily the case.=20
<P>Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two =
Americas. The=20
social and political differences between the "blue" states, which Al =
Gore=20
carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush carried in that =
election,=20
are profound in every category and becoming more so.=20
<P>Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he carried =
in 2000=20
plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore carried. If =
he can=20
just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry wins. Zogby =
suggested it=20
might be possible for Bush to carry the popular vote but lose the =
election,=20
the reverse of what happened in 2000 when Gore had more than a half =
million=20
votes more than Bush.=20
<P>Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he might =
just=20
lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up from =
both the=20
left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad candidate he =
might be=20
replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the occasion at the end of the=20
campaign, when it counts.=20
<P>Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the =
favorite=20
against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came alive and =
beat=20
him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly underestimated. =
He thinks=20
veterans will be crucial in this election and right now Kerry has an =
edge with=20
veterans because he has emphasized them so much and because there is =
some=20
dissatisfaction with the way that Bush is handling the war. That =
however,=20
according to Zogby, could change.=20
<P>While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we =
re-elect=20
the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we toss him =
out of=20
office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby believes this=20
election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be another =
nail-biter.=20
He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, although the White House =
disputes=20
that. They believe they have an excellent chance to carry Ohio. No =
Republican=20
in modern times has won the Presidency without Ohio=20
<P>After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 =
p.m, we=20
adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments. =
The=20
participants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby shook =
them to=20
the core." =20
<P> </P><BR clear=3Dall>
<HR>
Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : <A=20
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