[Vision2020] Iraq on the brink of civil war?

[Rodna Hansen]

I agree, Joan.

And, according to today's Spokesman-Review, anoother eight soldiers were killed
as a result of Shiite rioting.

Does anybody here remember (from the Johnson administration) the slogan, "Hey! 
Hey!  LBJ.  How many children did you kill today?"

Contest:  Let's see how many slogans we can develop concerning George Bush and
Iraq.

Rodna Hansen

At 09:19 PM 4/4/2004 -0700, Joan Opyr wrote: 
>
> Is Iraq slipping into civil war?  It's certainly beginning to look that way. 
> A long-dreaded second front opened this past weekend; according to another
> piece in the NY Times, not a single checkpoint manned by the much-touted,
> U.S.-trained Iraqi policemen held.  Next stop?  The Kurds in the north
> declare their independence, opening front #3.
>  
> The June 30th handover to the Iraqi Civil Authority will probably take place
> as scheduled, but it will be a farce.  We're in this for the long, bloody,
> demoralizing haul.
>  
> Joan Opyr/Auntie Establishment
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>  
> Forwarding from washingtonpost.com: 
>
> Protests Unleashed by Cleric Mark a New Front in War
>
> By Anthony Shadid  and Sewell Chan
>
>   BAGHDAD, April 4 -- By unleashing mass demonstrations and attacks in
> Baghdad and southern Iraq on Sunday, a young, militant cleric has realized
> the greatest fear of the U.S.-led administration since the occupation of Iraq
> began a year ago: a Shiite Muslim uprising.
>
> Fighting with U.S. troops raged into the night in a Baghdad slum, and
> hospitals reportedly took in dozens of casualties. But even before sunset,
> there was a sense across the capital that a yearlong test of wills between
> the American occupation and supporters of Moqtada Sadr had turned decisive,
> and its implications reverberated through Iraq.
>
> The unrest signaled that the U.S. military faces armed opposition on two
> fronts: in scarred Sunni towns such as Fallujah and, as of Sunday, in a
> Shiite-dominated region of the country that had remained largely acquiescent,
> if uneasy about the U.S. role. If put down forcefully, a Shiite uprising --
> infused with religious imagery, and symbols drawn from Iraq's colonial past
> and the current Palestinian conflict -- could achieve a momentum of its own.
>
> During the last year, Sadr has appealed to poor and disenfranchised Shiites,
> the majority of Iraq's population, with a relentless anti-occupation message.
> A junior cleric, the 30-year-old's authority is far overshadowed by Grand
> Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's leading religious figure. Sadr and his
> followers remain distinctly unpopular in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, where
> the more established clergy hold sway. But he commands a street following in
> Baghdad and the long-neglected cities of the south, and his militia of
> several thousand men has grown in strength and influence.
>
> Hours into Sunday's violence, Sadr publicly called for an end  to the
> protests, and it was unclear whether his followers would persist in a fight
> with an overwhelmingly more powerful U.S. military. But the calculus of
> Iraq's politics had already appeared to shift.
>
> "Just give the order, Moqtada, and we'll repeat the 1920 revolution,"
> supporters chanted in Baghdad, a reference to a Shiite-led uprising against
> the British occupation that has grown in political mythology to serve as
> Iraq's founding act. Across town, outside the headquarters of the U.S.-led
> administration, Sheik Hazm Aaraji warned, "The people are prepared for
> martyrdom."
>
> The unrest Sunday followed a series of calibrated moves by  each side that
> appeared to be  designed to test the resolve of the other.
>
> The latest round of tension began March 28, with the U.S. closure of Sadr's
> al-Hawza newspaper. With an estimated circulation of 10,000, the weekly was
> mainly marketed at mosques loyal to Sadr's followers and, for months, had
> printed articles that U.S. officials deemed inflammatory. The closure  sent
> thousands of protesters into the streets, many of them marching in military
> cadence in Baghdad and Najaf and wearing the black uniforms of Sadr's
> militia, which is known as the Mahdi Army.
>
> Supporters of Sadr suggested that a show of force would discourage U.S.
> officials from broadening the crackdown. In his Friday sermon, Sadr appeared
> to call for attacks on U.S. forces, crossing a line that he had carefully
> avoided for months. Citing what he called attacks by "the occupiers," he told
> followers, "Be on the utmost readiness and strike them where you meet them."
>
> Early Saturday morning, one of Sadr's top aides, Mustafa Yaqoubi, a familiar
> face in Sadr's office in Najaf, was detained. U.S. officials said he was held
> along with 12 people for the killing of  a moderate Shiite cleric from one of
> Iraq's most prestigious religious families. The cleric, Abdul-Majid Khoei,
> was hacked to death on April 10, 2003, a day after the fall of Baghdad. U.S.
> officials said the warrants were issued months ago and offered no explanation
> about why they were not executed until Saturday.
>
> The detention of Yaqoubi prompted protests by thousands on Sunday across
> southern Iraq. As the fighting surged in Baghdad and the southern cities of
> Najaf and Amarah, Sadr issued a statement calling on his followers to stop
> the protests, saying they were futile. But he added: "Intimidate your enemy.
> . . . It is not possible to remain silent before their violations." 
>
> U.S. officials insisted Sunday that they had not decided whether to crack
> down on Sadr's group. But L. Paul Bremer, the civilian administrator of Iraq,
> suggested that the violence would have consequences.
>
> "A group of people in Najaf have crossed the line," Bremer said at a news
> conference. "This will not be tolerated. This will not be tolerated by the
> coalition, this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi people, and this will not
> be tolerated by the Iraqi security forces."
>
> For months, occupation authorities have been divided over how to respond to
> Sadr's challenge.
>
> Since last summer, U.S. authorities had tried to persuade Iraq's more senior
> and moderate clergy to rein in Sadr, whom one senior official described at
> the time as "a populist, a critic and a rabble-rouser." "We're watching him
> and some of the big [ayatollahs] are watching us, and we're both hoping the
> other does something," the official said.
>
> Part of the reservation was motivated by the fear of a Shiite backlash. Since
> the start of the occupation, the desire to maintain Shiite support -- or at
> least acquiescence -- has served as one of the administration's key
> objectives.
>
> At least in public, Sadr's profile had appeared to fade in recent months, as
> Sistani played a more assertive role in Iraqi politics and criticized various
> U.S. plans for Iraq's political transition Given Sistani's stature among  the
> country's Shiites, Sadr had refrained from direct criticism of him. But in
> private, his followers express resentment of Sistani's influence. They view
> their movement as Arab and nationalist, and endorse a far greater role for
> the clergy in politics and social affairs than Sistani has espoused.
>
> In part, the rivalry dates back to Sadr's father, Mohammed Sadiq Sadr, who
> competed with Sistani for influence and was assassinated in 1999. Sadr has
> claimed the mantle of his revered father. 
>
> Sadr kept a lower profile after a clash in October between U.S. troops and
> his followers in Baghdad, but his movement's militia grew in size and
> influence. Numbering just 500 in August and often ridiculed for its ragtag
> quality, its membership has since grown to as many as 10,000 men, armed with
> rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and light weapons.
>
> With security deteriorating in the south, the militia has vied for authority
> with the larger Badr Organization, a militia operated by a leading Shiite
> party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Other, smaller
> militias belong to the Dawa party, another Shiite group with a long history
> in Iraq, and a mystical cleric named Sarkhi Hassani. One of Sistani's
> representatives, Abdel-Mehdi Salami, a ranking Shiite cleric, is believed to
> be organizing armed followers in Karbala, another  city sacred to Shiites.
>
> The rising influence of the Mahdi Army, along with accusations of their
> intimidation, death threats and illegal detentions, has alarmed U.S.
> officials, who fear it will compete for power after the U.S. administration
> of Iraq ends June 30. In recent weeks, pressure has grown within the
> occupation administration to crack down on militias, particularly Sadr's,
> before they gain more power.
>
> "We were so patient and now you can see the result," said Abu Heidar Ghalib
> Garawi, a leader of the Mahdi Army in Kufa, a city near Najaf. "You can see
> the rage of the people. What do you think? Will they [occupation authorities]
> respond with oppression or will they respond to the demands?"
>
> Correspondent Karl Vick in Kufa contributed to this report.
>
>    
>
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