[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences

[Donovan Arnold]

And the bad news is: If am still around in 2050 I probably won't know what 
year it is or what 8.9 billion is. : )
Which is something that I look forward to. A day when no race, religion, or 
culture rules the majority of the World, but instead, everyone is a minority 
in their religion, nation, and race. A day when all must respect all others 
to be respected themselves. : )

Donovan J Arnold


>From: "Dale Courtney" <dale@courtneys.us>
>To: <vision2020@moscow.com>
>Subject: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is 
>shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
>Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2003 12:27:49 -0700
>
>	The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate,
>predicts that
>- The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in 2000 
>to
>8.9 billion by 2050.
>- During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that
>should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%, from 482m
>to 454m.
>
>	For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is
>dramatic.
>- By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to around
>45m
>- Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m.
>- Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find 
>itself
>with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent
>projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
>unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population
>would decline to about 50m by 2100."
>
>	Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the
>economic and political consequences are alarming.
>- In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100
>people of working age.
>- By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for
>every 100 workers;
>- In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be
>one-to-one.
>
>	Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current
>tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to 
>fund
>the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is
>already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
>average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages 
>into
>the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.
>
>	Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and health
>care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of 
>internationals
>(mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes to
>sustain their welfare states.
>
>	The UN's statistics department
>(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population 
>division
>(http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
>demographic trends.
>	See also the French Institute of International Relations
>(http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher).
>	The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition of
>The Economist.
>
>Best,
>Dale Courtney
>Moscow, Idaho
>
>
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