[Vision2020] Will War Cause What We Want to Prevent
Mike Curley
curley@turbonet.com
Thu, 30 Jan 2003 16:56:46 -0800
Ted Moffatt started a recent note as follows:
The argument we awe being presented by the Bush
administration
to justify war against Iraq is...that Iraq sponsors terrorism,
is secretlyharboring or developing weapons of mass
destruction, and threatens other nations in the middle
east, all while flaunting United Nation resolutions to
disarm. OK. [end of quote]
That is the way that I, too, understand the argument. But
the question that results is this:
if
(a) Saddam actually has such weapons, and
(b) has not yet ostensibly used them
then,
if we attack
(a) isn't he more likely to use them, and
(b) thereby kill or maim (tens or hundreds of) thousands
than
if we continue to negotiate, inspect, pressure, and retain
restrictions on individual and group movement into and
out of Iraq?
Stated another way: by attacking, are we more likely to
suffer the damage against which we are trying to protect
ourselves?
It only takes one major nuclear, biological, or chemical
terrorist "event" to do even greater damage than the
World Trade Center attacks. And if someone
demonstrates (credibly) that it is much more likely we
avoid such an incident by declaring war than by exercising
the other options available to us, I could support a war.
But that seems counterintuitive to me. It seems much
more likely to me Saddam (or someone who goes crazy
as I perhaps would if my family were killed by a war
started by a superpower who had not been attacked) will
use everything at his disposal to kill as many Americans
and their allies as he can.
The issue of whether other countries have such weapons
doesn't seem terribly relevant to me without a discussion
of the comparative uses or threats of use those countries
have made against the US or its allies--or that would
affect us significantly even if used against someone who is
not our ally. The Soviet Union's nuclear weapons
presented a credible threat to the US for many years.
Some pushed for a "pre-emptive" strike that would take
out all their missiles at once. The US did not do that--not, I
think, for humanitarian reasons, but because we knew
that if we failed to pre-empt all their weapons on the first
strike, perhaps millions of Americans would be killed by
even one successful Soviet missile strike. If we sent ours,
we knew they would send theirs. And so it is with
Saddam. Early on in the rhetorical war he issued a
statement that he would unleash everything at his
disposal if the US declared war.
The US obviously doesn't know where Saddam's weapons
are or we would have just pointed the inspectors to them.
Even if we think he has them, he has not used them
successfully in 12 years. Until someone makes a credible
case that we absolutley save a significant number of lives
that will otherwise be lost and that we absolutely reduce
the possibility and probability of use of weapons of mass
destruction against us, I cannot support a direct attack on
Iraq. And certainly, where an attack appears to increase
the likelihood of use of WMD against us, comtemplating
such an attack is ludicrous.
I don't think that every US citizen has to be privy to all the
classified information available for the administration or
Congress to make a case for the need for war. But it
seems to me that even if all the facts presented to date by
the Administration are assumed to be true, no viable
argument has been presented that makes war the best
available alternative.
Thank you for your consideration.
Mike Curley