[Vision2020] Dec. 2022: Cornell University ARXIV Physics: NASA's James Hansen et. al. "Global warming in the pipeline" : "Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C."

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Thu Feb 9 18:27:03 PST 2023

Wake up, kids!

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Global Warming in the Pipeline


A couple important quotes from page 33 of the 48 page PDF version of this
peer reviewed climate science article:


"GHGs are long-lived and accumulate, so their forcing eventually dominates
unless aerosol emissions grow higher and higher – the Faustian bargain.85
"With current policies, we expect climate forcing for a few decades
post-2010 to increase 0.5-0.6 W/m2 per decade and produce global warming at
a rate at least +0.27°C per decade. In that case, global warming should
reach 1.5°C by the end of the 2020s and 2°C by 2050 (Fig. 19)."
[Submitted on 8 Dec 2022 (v1 <https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v1>), last
revised 12 Dec 2022 (this version, v2)]
Global warming in the pipeline
James E. Hansen
 (1), Makiko Sato
<https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Sato%2C+M> (1), Leon
(2), Larissa
S. Nazarenko
<https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Nazarenko%2C+L+S> (3
and 4), Karina von Schuckmann
 (5), Norman G. Loeb
(6), Matthew
B. Osman
 (7), Pushker Kharecha
 (1), Qinjian Jin
<https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Jin%2C+Q> (8), George
 (3), Andrew Lacis
<https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Lacis%2C+A> (3), Reto
Ruedy <https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Ruedy%2C+R> (3
and 9), Gary Russell
 (3), Junji Cao
<https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Cao%2C+J> (10), Jing
Li <https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Li%2C+J> (11)
((1) Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth
Institute, New York, NY, USA, (2) The Club of Rome Netherlands,
's-Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands, (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, New York, NY, USA, (4) Center for Climate Systems Research,
Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA, (5) Mercator Ocean
International, Ramonville St.-Agne, France, (6) NASA Langley Research
Center, Hampton, VA, USA, (7) Department of Geosciences, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, (8) Department of Geography and Atmospheric
Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA, (9) Business Integra,
Inc., New York, NY, USA, (10) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (11) Department of Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China)

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change
implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C
for doubled CO2 (2xCO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG)
climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to
2xCO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior
estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone --
after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a
major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from
paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several
millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming
occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading
to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than
estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010
because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented
global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point,
with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior
40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a
new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential
requirement to "save" young people and future generations is return to
Holocene-level global temperature. Three urgently required actions are: 1)
a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to
rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth's climate, and
3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing
world needs.

Comments: 48 pages, 27 figures. Correction of formatting error on page 21,
which messed up placement of all following figures
Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:2212.04474 <https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474> [physics.ao-ph]
  (or arXiv:2212.04474v2 <https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v2>
 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)
Focus to learn more
Submission historyFrom: James Hansen [view email
*[v1] <https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v1>* Thu, 8 Dec 2022 18:48:43 UTC
(2,063 KB)
*[v2]* Mon, 12 Dec 2022 18:55:10 UTC (2,062 KB)
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