<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Wake up, kids!  <br></div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div><div><div><div>***** Original material contained herein is Copyright 2000 through life plus 70 years, Ted Moffett.  Do not copy, forward, excerpt, or reproduce outside the <a href="http://vision2020.moscow.com/" target="_blank">Vision2020.Moscow.com</a> forum without the express written permission of the author.*****</div></div><div>----------------------------------------</div></div><div>Global Warming in the Pipeline</div><div><br></div><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474" target="_blank">https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474</a><div><br></div><div>A couple important quotes from page 33 of the 48 page PDF version of this peer reviewed climate science article:</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2212/2212.04474.pdf" target="_blank">https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2212/2212.04474.pdf</a><br></div><div><br></div><div>"GHGs are long-lived and accumulate, so their forcing eventually dominates
unless aerosol emissions grow higher and higher – the Faustian bargain.85</div><div>-------------------------------------</div><div>"With current policies, we
expect climate forcing for a few decades post-2010 to increase 0.5-0.6 W/m2
per decade and
produce global warming at a rate at least +0.27°C per decade. In that case, global warming
should reach 1.5°C by the end of the 2020s and 2°C by 2050 (Fig. 19)."</div><div>-------------------------------------<br><div><div id="m_-3567778675226516978gmail-content-inner" style="margin:0.7em;font-size:12.96px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Lucida Grande",helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif"><div id="m_-3567778675226516978gmail-abs" style="font-family:"Lucida Grande",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div style="margin:15px 0px 0px 20px;font-style:italic;font-size:0.9em">[Submitted on 8 Dec 2022 (<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v1" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank">v1</a>), last revised 12 Dec 2022 (this version, v2)]</div><h1 style="margin:0.25em 0px 12px 20px;line-height:27.9936px;font-size:1.8em">Global warming in the pipeline</h1><div style="margin:8px 0px 8px 20px;font-size:1.2em;line-height:24px"><a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Hansen%2C+J+E" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">James E. Hansen</a> (1), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Sato%2C+M" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Makiko Sato</a> (1), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Simons%2C+L" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Leon Simons</a> (2), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Nazarenko%2C+L+S" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Larissa S. Nazarenko</a> (3 and 4), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=von+Schuckmann%2C+K" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Karina von Schuckmann</a> (5), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Loeb%2C+N+G" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Norman G. Loeb</a> (6), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Osman%2C+M+B" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Matthew B. Osman</a> (7), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Kharecha%2C+P" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Pushker Kharecha</a> (1), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Jin%2C+Q" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Qinjian Jin</a> (8), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Tselioudis%2C+G" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">George Tselioudis</a> (3), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Lacis%2C+A" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Andrew Lacis</a> (3), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Ruedy%2C+R" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Reto Ruedy</a> (3 and 9), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Russell%2C+G" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Gary Russell</a> (3), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Cao%2C+J" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Junji Cao</a> (10), <a href="https://arxiv.org/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Li%2C+J" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-size:medium" target="_blank">Jing Li</a> (11) ((1) Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA, (2) The Club of Rome Netherlands, 's-Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands, (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA, (4) Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA, (5) Mercator Ocean International, Ramonville St.-Agne, France, (6) NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA, (7) Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, (8) Department of Geography and Atmospheric Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA, (9) Business Integra, Inc., New York, NY, USA, (10) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (11) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China)</div><blockquote style="line-height:1.55;font-size:1.05em;margin-bottom:21.6px;border-left:0px;padding:0px">Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2xCO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2xCO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is return to Holocene-level global temperature. Three urgently required actions are: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth's climate, and 3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs.</blockquote><div style="line-height:1.5;margin:0px 0px 19px 20px;border:0px;padding:0px;font-size:0.95em"><table summary="Additional metadata"><tbody><tr style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em">Comments:</td><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em">48 pages, 27 figures. Correction of formatting error on page 21, which messed up placement of all following figures</td></tr><tr style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em">Subjects:</td><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em"><span style="font-weight:700">Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)</span></td></tr><tr style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em">Cite as:</td><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em"><span style="font-weight:700"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:normal" target="_blank">arXiv:2212.04474</a> [physics.ao-ph]</span></td></tr><tr style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em"> </td><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em">(or <span style="font-weight:700"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v2" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:normal" target="_blank">arXiv:2212.04474v2</a> [physics.ao-ph]</span> for this version)</td></tr><tr style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><td style="padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em"> </td><td style="display:inline-flex;padding:0px 6.5px 0px 0px;vertical-align:top;border:0px;font-size:0.95em"><a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2212.04474" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2212.04474</a><div style="display:inline"><button aria-describedby="more-info-desc-1" style="background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;border-width:initial;border-style:none;border-color:initial;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px"><span style="height:1px;overflow:hidden;white-space:nowrap;width:1px">Focus to learn more</span></button></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div><div style="margin:1.5em 0px 1.5em 20px;font-size:12.96px;line-height:1.5em;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Lucida Grande",helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif"><h2 style="font-size:15.552px;margin:0px 0px 0.25em">Submission history</h2>From: James Hansen [<a href="https://arxiv.org/show-email/b65d0360/2212.04474" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank">view email</a>]<br><strong><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474v1" style="text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:normal" target="_blank">[v1]</a></strong> Thu, 8 Dec 2022 18:48:43 UTC (2,063 KB)<br><strong>[v2]</strong> Mon, 12 Dec 2022 18:55:10 UTC (2,062 KB)</div></div></div></div>
</div></div>