[Vision2020] 2-15-22 NOAA: U.S. coastline to see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Tue Feb 15 18:53:03 PST 2022

Note the date of the Nature science journal article below on sea level rise
from anthropogenic global warming, above the info on the report from NOAA
lower down, indicated in the subject heading,  How many scientific
examinations of this critical issue are required before the problem is
taken seriously, with major shifts in behavior, at all levels of society?
For many people and politicians, it does not matter what magnitude of
scientific evidence is presented!  "Don't Look Up" as the recent film of
this title declares.

Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels
Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical and uncertain climate change risk,
involving timescales of centuries1
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR1>. Here we use a
semi-empirical model, calibrated with sea-level data of the past millennium2
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR2>, to estimate the SLR
implications of holding warming below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
temperature, as mentioned in the Cancún Agreements3
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR3>. Limiting warming to
these levels with a probability larger than 50% produces 75–80 cm SLR above
the year 2000 by 2100. This is 25 cm below a scenario with unmitigated
emissions, but 15 cm above a hypothetical scenario reducing global
emissions to zero by 2016. The long-term SLR implications of the two
warming goals diverge substantially on a multi-century timescale owing to
inertia in the climate system and the differences in rates of SLR by 2100
between the scenarios. By 2300 a 1.5 °C scenario could peak sea level at a
median estimate of 1.5 m above 2000. The 50% probability scenario for 2 °C
warming would see sea level reaching 2.7 m above 2000 and still rising at
about double the present-day rate. Halting SLR within a few centuries is
likely to be achieved only with the large-scale deployment of CO2 removal
efforts, for example, combining large-scale bioenergy systems with carbon
capture and storage4 <https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR4>.

Text from first website below:

The United States is expected to experience as much sea level rise by the
year 2050 as it witnessed in the previous hundred years. That’s according
to a NOAA-led report updating sea level rise decision-support information
for the U.S. released today in partnership with half a dozen other federal

The *Sea Level Rise Technical Report
the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and
territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond, based on a
combination of tide gauge and satellite observations and all the model
ensembles from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC). The report projects sea levels along the
coastline will rise an additional 10-12 inches by 2050 with specific
amounts varying regionally, mainly due to land height changes.

Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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