<div dir="ltr"><div><h2 class="gmail-c-article-section__title gmail-js-section-title gmail-js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="gmail-Abs2" style="font-family:Harding,Palatino,serif;font-size:1.5rem;line-height:1.24;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem;margin:0px;padding:0px 0px 8px;box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:2px solid rgb(213,213,213)"><span style="font-size:1.5rem;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem">Note the date of the Nature science journal article below on sea level rise from anthropogenic global warming, above the info on the report from NOAA lower down, indicated in the subject heading,  How many scientific examinations of this critical issue are required before the problem is taken seriously, with major shifts in behavior, at all levels of society?  For many people and politicians, it does not matter what magnitude of scientific evidence is presented!  "Don't Look Up" as the recent film of this title declares.</span></h2><div><br></div><h2 class="gmail-c-article-section__title gmail-js-section-title gmail-js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="gmail-Abs2" style="font-family:Harding,Palatino,serif;font-size:1.5rem;line-height:1.24;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem;margin:0px;padding:0px 0px 8px;box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:2px solid rgb(213,213,213)"><span style="font-size:1.5rem;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem">Abstract</span><br></h2><div><span style="font-size:1.5rem;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem">6-24-2012</span></div><div><h1 class="gmail-c-article-title" style="font-size:1.875rem;font-family:Harding,Palatino,serif;line-height:1.2;margin:0px 0px 16px;padding:0px;box-sizing:inherit">Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels</h1></div><div><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584">https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584</a><span style="font-size:1.5rem;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem"><br></span></div><h2 class="gmail-c-article-section__title gmail-js-section-title gmail-js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="gmail-Abs2" style="font-family:Harding,Palatino,serif;font-size:1.5rem;line-height:1.24;letter-spacing:-0.01172rem;margin:0px;padding:0px 0px 8px;box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:2px solid rgb(213,213,213)">Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical and uncertain climate change risk, involving timescales of centuries<span style="font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:13.5px;line-height:0;box-sizing:inherit"><a aria-label="Reference 1" title="Meehl, G. A. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR1" id="gmail-ref-link-section-d44690960e362" style="vertical-align:baseline;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,102,153);word-break:break-word;box-sizing:inherit">1</a></span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal">. Here we use a semi-empirical model, calibrated with sea-level data of the past millennium</span><span style="font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:13.5px;line-height:0;box-sizing:inherit"><a aria-label="Reference 2" title="Kemp, A. C. et al. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 11017–11022 (2011)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR2" id="gmail-ref-link-section-d44690960e366" style="vertical-align:baseline;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,102,153);word-break:break-word;box-sizing:inherit">2</a></span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal">, to estimate the SLR implications of holding warming below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperature, as mentioned in the Cancún Agreements</span><span style="font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:13.5px;line-height:0;box-sizing:inherit"><a aria-label="Reference 3" title="UNFCCC Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Sixteenth Session, held in Cancún from 29 November to 10 December 2010 (UNFCCC, 2011); available via 
                    http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf
                    
                  ." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR3" id="gmail-ref-link-section-d44690960e370" style="vertical-align:baseline;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,102,153);word-break:break-word;box-sizing:inherit">3</a></span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal">. Limiting warming to these levels with a probability larger than 50% produces 75–80 cm SLR above the year 2000 by 2100. This is 25 cm below a scenario with unmitigated emissions, but 15 cm above a hypothetical scenario reducing global emissions to zero by 2016. The long-term SLR implications of the two warming goals diverge substantially on a multi-century </span>timescale<span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal"> owing to inertia in the climate system and the differences in rates of SLR by 2100 between the scenarios. By 2300 a 1.5 °C scenario could peak sea level at a median estimate of 1.5 m above 2000. The 50% probability scenario for 2 °C warming would see sea level reaching 2.7 m above 2000 and still rising at about double the present-day rate. Halting SLR within a few centuries is likely to be achieved only with the large-scale deployment of CO</span><span style="font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;box-sizing:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:13.5px;line-height:0">2</span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal"> </span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal">removal efforts, for example, combining large-scale bioenergy systems with carbon capture and storage</span><span style="font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:13.5px;line-height:0;box-sizing:inherit"><a aria-label="Reference 4" title="Van Vuuren, D. & Riahi, K. The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets. Climatic Change 104, 793–801 (2011)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584#ref-CR4" id="gmail-ref-link-section-d44690960e376" style="vertical-align:baseline;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,102,153);word-break:break-word;box-sizing:inherit">4</a></span><span style="font-size:18px;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal">.</span></h2></div><div><br></div><div>Text from first website below:</div><div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans","Open Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:18px"><br></span></div><div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans","Open Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:18px">The United States is expected to experience as much sea level rise by the year 2050 as it witnessed in the previous hundred years. That’s according to a NOAA-led report updating sea level rise decision-support information for the U.S. released today in partnership with half a dozen other federal agencies.</span><br style="box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans","Open Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:18px"></div><div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans","Open Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:18px"><br></span></div><div><p style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px 0px 0.888889rem;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans","Open Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif;font-size:18px">The <em style="box-sizing:inherit"><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(10,69,149);text-decoration-line:none;border-bottom:1px dotted rgb(10,69,149)">Sea Level Rise Technical Report</a> </em>provides the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond, based on a combination of tide gauge and satellite observations and all the model ensembles from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report projects sea levels along the coastline will rise an additional 10-12 inches by 2050 with specific amounts varying regionally, mainly due to land height changes.</p></div><div><a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-coastline-to-see-up-to-foot-of-sea-level-rise-by-2050">https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-coastline-to-see-up-to-foot-of-sea-level-rise-by-2050</a><br></div><div><br></div><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report-sections.html">https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report-sections.html</a><br><div>---------------------------------------</div><div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div></div>