[Vision2020] KUID PBS Ch. 12: 6-28-21: NASA Climate Scientist Gavin Schmidt

[Ted Moffett]

***** Original material contained herein is Copyright 2000 through life
plus 70 years, Ted Moffett.  Do not copy, forward, excerpt, or reproduce
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Last night on KUID PBS TV I was surprised to see NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies scientist Gavin Schmidt being interviewed about the current
US and Canada Northwest heat wave.  I was reminded that in 2007 I sent
Schmidt an email copy of my Moscow-Pullman Daily News column from 2-23-07
"Human Effects on Climate Change Are Real," thinking this was a waste of
time!  Why would a busy professional scientist like Schmidt bother reading
a column in a small town newspaper in Moscow, Idaho?  He sent me a personal
"Thank You" with brief comments, wonderful feedback compared to the
pseudo-scientific nonsense on climate science publicly expressed by some
members of the Moscow community, who have no professional credibility as
climate scientists:
HIS VIEW: Human effects on climate change are real | Opinion | dnews.com
<https://dnews.com/opinion/his-view-human-effects-on-climate-change-are-real/article_23bd9a88-5bfd-5773-91c6-98c8b28079de.html>
[Vision2020] Ted Moffett on Global Warming (fsr.com)
<http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2007-February/041709.html>

This column seems like it is from decades ago!  I mentioned that the
increase in average atmospheric CO2 level from pre-industrial levels of
270-80 ppm to the then current level of 380 ppm was "almost entirely due to
human activity."  And that if CO2 emissions continue to increase, CO2
levels would reach "around 500 ppm by around 2100."

I was being conservative!  Mauna Loa CO2 monitoring shows May 2021 monthly
average at 419.13 ppm:
Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases (noaa.gov)
<https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/>
The global CO2 average level can vary a bit from the Mauna Loa data:
Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases (noaa.gov)
<https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html>
But still, the math is simple:  if 380 ppm was the current atmospheric CO2
average in 2007 (maybe closer to 382-3...read chart at link below), this
rate of increase extended till 2100 will result in far surpassing 500 ppm
by 2100.  And with potential future carbon sink reversal impacts, what
could happen?  But don't worry, our technology and land management efforts
will solve the problem!  Really?  Then why is it not now being solved?

It is interesting to see the annual up and down in the Keeling Curve of
Earth's atmospheric average CO2 level revealed in the charts below, due to
the CO2 seasonal uptake increase and reduction in Northern Hemisphere plant
growth, which is greater than in the Southern Hemisphere, with less land
mass:.
co2_data_mlo.pdf (noaa.gov)
<https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.pdf>
Keeling Curve | Climate Central
<https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/keeling_curve>


"The small annual zigzag visible on the curve is timed with the seasons.
Carbon dioxide levels drop during the northern hemisphere spring and
summer, when plants are taking CO2 out of the atmosphere to grow. In the
fall and winter, plants and leaves die off and decay, releasing CO2 back
into the atmosphere and causing a small spike. Since most of the world's
seasonal vegetation is in the northern hemisphere, as is the measuring
station at Mauna Loa, the seasonal trend in the Keeling Curve record from
Mauna Loa is based on northern hemisphere seasons. The detailed and logical
“breathing” of the planet that the Keeling Curve shows is just one of many
indicators of its sensitivity and accuracy."
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