[Vision2020] Journal Climatic Change 7-15-20: UChicago study: ‘Ultimate cost’ of carbon 1,000 times greater than cost to current generation
starbliss at gmail.com
Fri Sep 11 03:27:49 PDT 2020
The time scale of anthropogenic climate change is far beyond the
calculations of most mainstream ideological, political and economic
systems, thus is
psychologically incomprehensible. Nonetheless, consider how future
generations will evaluate our behavior? Or maybe you'd rather not!
This UChicago article is dated Sep 9, but the peer reviewed journal article
that the UChicago article links to is dated July 15? Also, the UChicago
article indicates "journal Climactic Change" while the Springer Link to
this article indicates "Climatic Change." A mere typo?
Climatic Change journal "home"
*An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description,
Causes and Implications of Climatic Change*
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
UChicago study: ‘Ultimate cost’ of carbon 1,000 times greater than cost to
by Louise Lerner
Sep 9, 2020
The ultimate cost of carbon
15 July 2020
We estimate the potential ultimate cost of fossil-fuel carbon to a
long-lived human population over a one million–year time scale. We assume
that this hypothetical population is technologically stationary and
agriculturally based, and estimate climate impacts as fractional decreases
in economic activity, potentially amplified by a human population response
to a diminished human carrying capacity. Monetary costs are converted to
units of present-day dollars by multiplying the future damage fractions by
the present-day global world production, and integrated through time with
no loss due from time-preference discounting. Ultimate costs of C range
from $10k to $750k per ton for various assumptions about the magnitude and
longevity of economic impacts, with a best-estimate value of about $100k
per ton of C. Most of the uncertainty arises from the economic parameters
of the model and, among the geophysical parameters, from the climate
sensitivity. We argue that the ultimate cost of carbon is a first
approximation of our potential culpability to future generations for our
fossil energy use, expressed in units that are relevant to us.
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