[Vision2020] More than 185 million people are under watches and warnings as the heat wave begins to reach peak temperatures
Ted Moffett
starbliss at gmail.com
Fri Jul 19 18:18:05 PDT 2019
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
--------------------------------------------------
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization
1. Johan Rockström1
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1>,
2. Owen Gaffney1
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1>,2
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-2>,
3. Joeri Rogelj3
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-3>,4
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-4>,
4. Malte Meinshausen5
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-5>,6
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-6>,
5. Nebojsa Nakicenovic3
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-4>,
6. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber1
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1>,5
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-5>
See all authors and affiliations
Science 24 Mar 2017:
Vol. 355, Issue 6331, pp. 1269-1271
DOI: 10.1126/science.aah3443
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269
Although the Paris Agreement's goals (*1*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-1>) are aligned
with science (*2*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-2>) and can, in
principle, be technically and economically achieved (*3*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3>), alarming
inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national
commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate
negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism.
Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than
expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization
strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (*4*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-4>) and scenarios
often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated
with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior.
For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in
2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (*5*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-5>). To harness
these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose
framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap
based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic
carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately
instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use
CO2emissions,
this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to
limit warming to well below 2°C.
The Paris goal translates into a finite planetary carbon budget: a 50%
chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 and a >66% probability of
meeting the 2°C target imply that global CO2 emissions peak no later than
2020, and gross emissions decline from ∼40 gigatons (metric) of carbon
dioxide (GtCO2)/year in 2020, to ∼24 by 2030, ∼14 by 2040, and ∼5 by 2050 (
*3* <https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3>) (see the
figure, top). Risks could be further reduced by moderately increasing
ambition to halve emissions every decade (see the figure, bottom right).
Following such a global carbon law means at least limiting cumulative total
CO2 emissions from 2017 until the end of the century to ∼700 GtCO2, which
allows for a small but essential contingency (∼125 GtCO2 less compared with
total CO2 emissions in the pathway in the figure, top) for risks of
biosphere carbon feedbacks (*6*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-6>) or delay in
ramping up CO2-removal technologies.
A carbon law applies to all sectors and countries at all scales and
encourages bold action in the short term. It means, for example, doubling
of zero-carbon shares in the energy system every 5 to 7 years, a rate
consistent with the trajectory of the past decade (see the figure, bottom
left). All sectors (e.g., agriculture, construction, finance,
manufacturing, transport) need comparable transformation pathways. In
addition, in the absence of viable alternatives, the world must aim at
rapidly scaling up CO2 removal by technical means from zero to at least 0.5
GtCO2/year by 2030, 2.5 by 2040, and 5 by 2050. CO2 emissions from land-use
must decrease along a nonlinear trajectory from 4 GtCO2/year in 2010, to 2
by 2030, 1 by 2040, and 0 by 2050 (see the figure, bottom right). The
endgame is for cumulative CO2 emissions since 2017 to be brought back from
around 700 GtCO2 to below 200 GtCO2 by the end of the century (see the
figure, top) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations to return to 380 ppm by
2100 (currently at 400 ppm).
Roadmaps are planning instruments, linking shorter-term targets to
longer-term goals. They help align actors and organizations to instigate
technological and institutional breakthroughs to meet a collective
challenge. An explicit carbon roadmap for halving anthropogenic emissions
every decade, codesigned by and for all industry sectors, could help
promote disruptive, nonlinear technological advances toward a
zero-emissions world. The key to such a carbon law will be a dual strategy
that pushes renewables and other zeroemissions technologies up the creation
and dissemination trajectory, while simultaneously pulling fossil-based
value propositions from the market. Thus, the transformation unfolds at a
pace governed by novel schemes rather than by inertia imposed by incumbent
technologies (see the figure, bottom left).
We sketch out a broad decadal decarbonization narrative in four
dimensions—innovation, institutions, infrastructures, and investment—to
provide evidence of feasibility and depth of transformation for economies
to stay on a carbon-law trajectory. The narrative provides no guarantees
but identifies crucial steps, grounded in published scenarios combined with
expert judgment. Each step has two parts: actions for rapid near-term
emissions reductions, and actions for systemic and long-term impact,
creating the basis for the next steps. Such a narrative, specifically
designed with decadal targets and incentives, could provide key elements
for national and international climate strategies.
2017–2020: No-Brainers
Annual emissions from fossil fuels must start falling by 2020. Well-proven
(and ideally income-neutral) policy instruments such as carbon tax schemes,
cap-and-trade systems, feed-in tariffs, and quota approaches should roll
out at wide scale. Even these will be challenging in the emerging global
political climate. The European Union emissions-trading scheme requires
kick-starting through an appropriate floor price (>$50/metric ton CO2).
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A GLOBAL CARBON LAW AND ROADMAP TO MAKE PARIS GOALS A REALITY
(TOP) A DEEP DECARBONIZATION SCENARIO SCIENTIFICALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PARIS AGREEMENT (*3*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3>) AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CARBON FLUXES AS COMPUTED WITH A SIMPLE CARBON CYCLE AND CLIMATE
MODEL (*13* <https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-13>).
THE “CARBON LAW” SCENARIO OF HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE IS MARGINALLY
MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE SCENARIO PRESENTED. MEETING THE PARIS AGREEMENT
GOALS WILL REQUIRE BENDING THE GLOBAL CURVE OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2020 AND
REACHING NET-ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050. IT FURTHERMORE DEPENDS ON RISING
ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON SINKS, FROM BIOENERGY CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
(BECCS) ENGINEERING (YELLOW) AND LAND USE (ORANGE), AS WELL AS SUSTAINED
NATURAL SINKS, TO STABILIZE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES. THIS SCENARIO IS BROADLY
CONSISTENT WITH A 75% PROBABILITY OF LIMITING WARMING TO BELOW 2°C; A
MEDIAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.5°C BY 2100; ESTIMATED PEAK MEDIAN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.7°C; A 50% PROBABILITY OF LIMITING WARMING TO
BELOW 1.5°C BY 2100; AND CO2 CONCENTRATIONS OF 380 PPM IN 2100. SEE
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS (SM). (BOTTOM LEFT) NONLINEAR RENEWABLE ENERGY
EXPANSION TRAJECTORIES BASED ON 2005–2015 GLOBAL TRENDS (*13*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-13>). KEEPING THE
HISTORICAL DOUBLING TIMES OF AROUND 5.5 YEARS CONSTANT IN THE NEXT THREE
DECADES WOULD YIELD FULL DECARBONIZATION (BLUE AREA) IN THE ENTIRE ENERGY
SECTOR BY ∼2040, WITH COAL USE ENDING AROUND 2030–2035 AND OIL USE,
2040–2045. CALCULATIONS, BASED ON (*5*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-5>), ARE DETAILED
IN SM. (BOTTOM RIGHT) DECADAL STAIRCASE FOLLOWING A GLOBAL CARBON LAW OF
HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE, A COMPLEMENTARY FALL IN LAND-USE EMISSIONS,
PLUS RAMPING UP CO2REMOVAL TECHNOLOGIES.
GRAPHIC: N. CARY/*SCIENCE*
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) should
transform into a vanguard forum where nations, businesses, nongovernmental
organizations, and scientific communities meet to refine the roadmap. It is
evident that the current national commitments under the Paris Agreement
must be strongly enhanced at the first ratcheting-up cycle in 2018 to 2020.
Fossil-fuel subsidies, currently $500 billion to $600 billion per annum,
must be eliminated by 2020, not 2025 as agreed by the Group of Seven (G7)
nations in 2016. An immediate moratorium on investment in new unabated
coal-based energy would minimize future stranded assets. China's greenhouse
gas (GHG) output must continue to decrease over the coming years, through
aggressive funding of renewables, by abandoning coal expansion, and by
closing mines. The richer coal-intensive countries must spearhead the coal
exit, and countries like India and Indonesia must follow suit.
By 2020, all cities and major corporations in the industrialized world
should have decarbonization strategies in place. The 49 countries already
committed to be carbon neutral by 2050 should have expanded to >100
countries by that time, and implementation should be under way. The gravest
risk is that emerging economies, such as South Africa, are driven down the
conventional growth path by sheer inertia. International efforts must
incentivize low-carbon development as a priority.
Food production contributes to >10% of global GHG emissions (*4*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-4>) and weakens
natural carbon sinks yet has vast potential for biological carbon removal.
Innovative financial mechanisms are needed to incentivize carbon management
in the food system. Agro-industries, farms, and civil society should
develop a worldwide strategy for sustainable food systems to drive
healthier, low-meat diets (*7*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-7>) and reduce
food waste (*8* <https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-8>).
Health and sustainability cobenefits—such as obesity and disease abatement,
pollution reduction, and ecosystems preservation—should spur action.
2020–2030: Herculean Efforts
Economies must implement the no-brainer mitigation measures plus the first
wave of smart and disruptive action. Improving energy efficiency alone
would reduce emissions 40 to 50% by around 2030 in many domestic and
industrial cases (*9*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-9>).
In the 2020s, carbon pricing across the world must expand to cover all GHG
emissions, starting at $50 per metric ton at least and exceeding $400 per
ton by mid-century. By the end of that decade, coal will be about to exit
the global energy mix, cities like Copenhagen and Hamburg will be
fossil-fuel free, and cap-and-trade regimes should be firmly established
across national and regional economic zones along with adequate carbon
taxes on air transport and shipping. Countries should follow Norway,
Germany, and the Netherlands and announce the phase-out of internal
combustion engines in new cars by 2030 at the latest. Decarbonizing
long-distance transport will be key, through renewable fuels,
electrification, and replacing shorter-haul air traffic by rapid rail.
These commitments will signal that the conventional model of reinvesting
fossil-fuel revenues into exploration is obsolete.
Public and private investment in research and development (R&D) for climate
solutions should increase by an order of magnitude between now and 2030.
Substantial resources must be directed toward more efficient modes of
industrial production; battery-life extension and improved energy storage
solutions; schemes that greatly reduce the cost of carbon capture and
storage (CCS) within 10 years; alternative aircraft propulsion systems;
super-smart power grids; and sustainable urbanization everywhere.
We need urgent research to ascertain the resilience of remaining biosphere
carbon sinks (*10*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-10>). Strong
financial impetus must be provided for afforestation of degraded land and
for establishment of no-regret approaches to net removal of CO2 from the
atmosphere—such as the combination of second- and third-generation
bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) or direct air CCS (DACCS). Trials of sustainable
sequestration schemes of the order of 100 to 500 MtCO2/year should be well
under way to resolve deployment issues relating to food security,
biodiversity preservation, indigenous rights, and societal acceptance.
2030–2040: Many Breakthroughs
By 2040, oil will be about to exit the global energy mix. Several vanguard
countries (such as Norway, Denmark, and Sweden) should have completed
electrification of all sectors and be entirely emissions-free or close to
it. Internal combustion engines for personal transport will have become
rare on roads worldwide. Aircraft fuel should be entirely carbon neutral.
Synthesized fuels, bio-methane, and hydrogen are established alternatives.
After 2030, all building construction must be carbon-neutral or
carbon-negative. The construction industry must either use emissions-free
concrete and steel or replace those materials with zero- or
negative-emissions substances such as wood, stone, and carbon fiber.
BECCS schemes totaling 1 to 2 GtCO2/year would roll out, and R&D should
focus on doubling the annual rate of CO2 removal. We can expect that
polycentric power grids using supraconductive cables will start supplying
energy in developing countries, and radical new energy generation solutions
will enter the market.
Promising financial mechanisms to foster investments in necessary
breakthroughs include sovereign wealth funds designed for transformation;
effective international corporation tax regimes (*11*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-11>); and
inheritance reforms that account for historical wealth generated by fossil
fuels without compensation of externalities (*12*
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-12>).
2040–2050: Revise, Reinforce
Building on successes and learning from failures of previous stages,
certain mitigation strategies will be abandoned and others refined and
amplified. All major European countries become close to net-zero carbon
states early in the 2040s; market dynamics push North and South America and
most of Asia and Africa to this goal by the end of the decade. Natural gas
still provides some backup energy, but CCS ensures its carbon footprint is
limited. Modular nuclear reactors may contribute to the energy mix in
places.
By 2050, the world will have reached netzero CO2 emissions, with a global
economy powered by carbon-free energy and fed from carbon-sequestering
sustainable agriculture. Meanwhile, BECCS schemes have been scaled up and
draw down >5 GtCO2/year. Alternatively, concerns may rule out such
scale-up. Only deep emission reductions during 2020–2030 can enable BECCS
to be scaled back or abandoned, while efforts to increase energy efficiency
and DACCS continue.
Stability and Resilience
We cannot predict where civilization will be mid-century, but a decadal
staircase based on a carbon law, if adopted broadly, may provide essential
economic boundary conditions to make a zero-emissions future an
inevitability rather than wishful thinking. The very nature of disruptive
progress requires revising the narrative of a detailed roadmap every 2
years, correcting near-term targets to reach the ultimate goal by
evolutionary management.
Although signs are positive that the world is on track to rapidly transform
to a net-zero–emissions global economy, contagion dynamics cut both ways.
If political signals do not support a rapid transition, for example, by a
failure to implement worldwide financial and regulatory reform that places
a cost on carbon, then it is difficult to imagine keeping warming at “well
below 2°C.” However, the scale of momentum toward clean energy in the past
decade suggests that it would seem foolish to try to halt the trend, given
the growing evidence that decarbonization can be a major progrowth strategy.
In global governance, climate stabilization must be placed on par with
economic development, human rights, democracy, and peace. The design and
implementation of the carbon roadmap should therefore take center stage at
the UN Security Council, as these quintessential objectives increasingly
interact, influencing the stability and resilience of societies and the
Earth system.
Supplementary Materials
www.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269/suppl/DC1
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On Fri, Jul 19, 2019 at 7:18 AM Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:
> Nope. No climate change there.
>
> Courtesy of CNN at:
>
> https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/us/heatwave-friday-wxc/index.html
>
> ———————————————
>
> More than 185 million people are under watches and warnings as the heat
> wave begins to reach peak temperatures
>
> (CNN) - Peak temperatures from a potentially deadly heat wave are expected
> to begin Friday, and major US cities are taking special measures to prepare
> -- with New York City declaring an emergency.
>
> Over the next few days, more than 85% of the lower 48's population will
> see temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen
> said, and more than half will see temperatures higher than 95 degrees.
>
> About 185 million people are under a heat watch, warning or advisory as of
> Friday morning.
>
> Track the extreme heat <https://www.cnn.com/interactive/storm-tracker/>
>
> The heat has the potential to break records and turn deadly as
> temperatures climb over the weekend all along the East Coast and through
> the Midwest.
>
> Live updates: Heat wave descends on the US
> <http://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/heat-wave-july-2019/index.html>
>
> East Coast
>
> High temperatures are expected to scorch the major cities of the East
> Coast.
>
> Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington will be under
> excessive heat warnings on Friday. Further south, Raleigh is under a heat
> advisory.
>
> Mayor Bill de Blasio has declared "a local emergency due to the extreme
> heat" in New York City. In an executive order that covers 9 a.m. Friday to
> 11:59 p.m. Sunday, the mayor is ordering office buildings 100 feet or
> taller to raise thermostats to 78 degrees in an effort to conserve energy.
> He also encouraged residents to set their thermostats higher to help reduce
> energy use.
>
> "We are about to enter a heat emergency, and must do all we can to keep
> New Yorkers safe," said de Blasio. "The city government is limiting its
> energy use to reduce strain on the electrical grid, and now private office
> buildings will also have to do their part."
> With extreme temperatures through Sunday, the Verizon New York City
> Triathlon has been canceled. The organization says it's not safe for the
> athletes or the spectators.
>
> "After exhausting all options to mitigate athlete, volunteer, spectator
> and staff exposure alike, we are unable to provide either a safe event
> experience or an alternate race weekend," organizers announced in a press
> release. "As a result, in collaboration with the City of New York and all
> supporting agencies, Sunday's triathlon has been canceled."
>
> Also canceled: Saturday's card of horse racing at New York's Saratoga Race
> Course, and all races Saturday and Sunday at the Maryland Jockey Club in
> Laurel -- where the heat index will reach 110 to 115.
>
> "The health and safety of our horses and jockeys is our highest priority,"
> said Maryland Jockey Club President and General Manager Sal Sinatra.
>
> Midwest
>
> Detroit is taking extra measures to make sure residents can get relief
> from the sweltering heat that is also expected in the Midwest.
>
> In addition to cooling centers open on the weekdays, the city will open
> recreation centers on the weekend to give access to air-conditioning,
> according to a press release.
>
> The mayor's office and the Detroit Police Department will also be checking
> on homeless people to offer them transport to cooling centers this weekend,
> the release said.
>
> As cities all over the region -- such as Cleveland, Minneapolis, Chicago,
> Omaha and Detroit -- face heat warnings or advisories, Detroit officials
> are urging residents to drink plenty of water, reduce outdoor activities,
> eat light and check on family and neighbors.
>
> Heat wave made worse by climate crisis
>
> June of this year was the hottest June on record for the world, according
> to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It isn't clear yet
> how July will fair in terms of breaking records, but temperatures for this
> week are high.
>
> Experts say the heat wave is only made worse by the ongoing threat of
> climate change. According to last year's National Climate Assessment, the
> number of hot days in the US is increasing.
>
> Heat waves have also increased in frequency, rising from an average of two
> per year to six per year in the last five decades. The threat is especially
> pronounced in the Northeast, where "the frequency, intensity, and duration
> of heat waves is expected to increase" due to the climate crisis.
>
> By 2050, the Northeast can expect approximately 650 more deaths each year
> because of extreme heat, the assessment found.
>
> ———————————————
>
> Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .
>
> "Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)
> http://www.MoscowCares.com <http://www.moscowcares.com/>
>
> Tom Hansen
> Moscow, Idaho
>
>
>
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