<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><h1 class="gmail-article__headline" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px 0px 15px;line-height:1.2;font-weight:400;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div class="gmail-highwire-cite-title" style="box-sizing:inherit"><font size="2">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</font></div><div class="gmail-highwire-cite-title" style="box-sizing:inherit"><font size="1">--------------------------------------------------</font></div><div class="gmail-highwire-cite-title" style="font-size:2rem;box-sizing:inherit">A roadmap for rapid decarbonization</div></h1><div class="gmail-article__expandable-area gmail-collapsed" style="font-size:16px;box-sizing:inherit;width:699px"><div class="gmail-article gmail-byline gmail-byline--article" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700;color:rgb(102,102,102);margin:0px;font-size:0.875rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div class="gmail-highwire-markup" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div id="gmail-content-block-markup" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div class="gmail-contributors" style="box-sizing:inherit"><ol class="gmail-contributor-list" id="gmail-contrib-group-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;font-size:0.875rem;white-space:nowrap;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis"><li class="gmail-contributor" id="gmail-contrib-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Johan Rockström</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-1-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">1</a>, </li><li class="gmail-contributor" id="gmail-contrib-2" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Owen Gaffney</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-1-2" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">1</a><span class="gmail-xref-sep" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">,</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-2-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-2" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">2</a>, </li><li class="gmail-contributor" id="gmail-contrib-3" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Joeri Rogelj</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-3-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-3" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">3</a><span class="gmail-xref-sep" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">,</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-4-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-4" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">4</a>, </li><li class="gmail-contributor" id="gmail-contrib-4" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Malte Meinshausen</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-5-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">5</a><span class="gmail-xref-sep" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">,</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-6-1" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-6" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">6</a>, </li><li class="gmail-contributor" id="gmail-contrib-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Nebojsa Nakicenovic</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-4-2" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-4" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">3</a>, </li><li class="gmail-last" id="gmail-contrib-6" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;padding:0px;margin:0px;text-align:left"><span class="gmail-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Hans Joachim Schellnhuber</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-1-3" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">1</a><span class="gmail-xref-sep" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">,</span><a id="gmail-xref-aff-5-2" class="gmail-xref-aff" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#aff-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-size:10.5px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0px;font-weight:normal">5</a></li></ol></div></div></div></div></div><p class="gmail-contributor-list__reveal" style="font-size:0.75rem;box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;width:699px"><span class="gmail-contributor-list__toggler" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700;color:rgb(212,0,22)"></span> <span class="gmail-collapsed-text" style="box-sizing:inherit">See all</span> authors and affiliations</span></p><div class="gmail-meta-line" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.75rem;color:rgb(102,102,102);margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px;line-height:1.1;font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><cite style="box-sizing:inherit">Science </cite> 24 Mar 2017:<br style="box-sizing:inherit">Vol. 355, Issue 6331, pp. 1269-1271<br style="box-sizing:inherit">DOI: 10.1126/science.aah3443</div><div class="gmail-meta-line" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.75rem;color:rgb(102,102,102);margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px;line-height:1.1;font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269">https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269</a> </div><div class="gmail-meta-line" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.75rem;color:rgb(102,102,102);margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px;line-height:1.1;font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"> <span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">Although the Paris Agreement's goals (</span><a id="gmail-xref-ref-1-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-1" style="font-size:16px;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">1</em></a><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">) are aligned with science (</span><a id="gmail-xref-ref-2-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-2" style="font-size:16px;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">2</em></a><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (</span><a id="gmail-xref-ref-3-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3" style="font-size:16px;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">3</em></a><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (</span><a id="gmail-xref-ref-4-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-4" style="font-size:16px;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">4</em></a><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (</span><a id="gmail-xref-ref-5-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-5" style="font-size:16px;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">5</em></a><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO</span><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);box-sizing:inherit;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO</span><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);box-sizing:inherit;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-size:16px">emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.</span><br></div><div class="gmail-panel-pane gmail-pane-highwire-markup gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class="gmail-pane-content gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><div class="gmail-highwire-markup gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div id="gmail-content-block-markup" class="gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div class="gmail-article gmail-fulltext-view gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><p id="gmail-p-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">The Paris goal translates into a finite planetary carbon budget: a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 and a >66% probability of meeting the 2°C target imply that global CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions peak no later than 2020, and gross emissions decline from ∼40 gigatons (metric) of carbon dioxide (GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>)/year in 2020, to ∼24 by 2030, ∼14 by 2040, and ∼5 by 2050 (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-3-2" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">3</em></a>) (see the figure, top). Risks could be further reduced by moderately increasing ambition to halve emissions every decade (see the figure, bottom right). Following such a global carbon law means at least limiting cumulative total CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions from 2017 until the end of the century to ∼700 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>, which allows for a small but essential contingency (∼125 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> less compared with total CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions in the pathway in the figure, top) for risks of biosphere carbon feedbacks (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-6-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-6" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">6</em></a>) or delay in ramping up CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>-removal technologies.</p><p id="gmail-p-6" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">A carbon law applies to all sectors and countries at all scales and encourages bold action in the short term. It means, for example, doubling of zero-carbon shares in the energy system every 5 to 7 years, a rate consistent with the trajectory of the past decade (see the figure, bottom left). All sectors (e.g., agriculture, construction, finance, manufacturing, transport) need comparable transformation pathways. In addition, in the absence of viable alternatives, the world must aim at rapidly scaling up CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> removal by technical means from zero to at least 0.5 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>/year by 2030, 2.5 by 2040, and 5 by 2050. CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions from land-use must decrease along a nonlinear trajectory from 4 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>/year in 2010, to 2 by 2030, 1 by 2040, and 0 by 2050 (see the figure, bottom right). The endgame is for cumulative CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions since 2017 to be brought back from around 700 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> to below 200 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> by the end of the century (see the figure, top) and atmospheric CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> concentrations to return to 380 ppm by 2100 (currently at 400 ppm).</p><p id="gmail-p-7" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">Roadmaps are planning instruments, linking shorter-term targets to longer-term goals. They help align actors and organizations to instigate technological and institutional breakthroughs to meet a collective challenge. An explicit carbon roadmap for halving anthropogenic emissions every decade, codesigned by and for all industry sectors, could help promote disruptive, nonlinear technological advances toward a zero-emissions world. The key to such a carbon law will be a dual strategy that pushes renewables and other zeroemissions technologies up the creation and dissemination trajectory, while simultaneously pulling fossil-based value propositions from the market. Thus, the transformation unfolds at a pace governed by novel schemes rather than by inertia imposed by incumbent technologies (see the figure, bottom left).</p><p id="gmail-p-8" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">We sketch out a broad decadal decarbonization narrative in four dimensions—innovation, institutions, infrastructures, and investment—to provide evidence of feasibility and depth of transformation for economies to stay on a carbon-law trajectory. The narrative provides no guarantees but identifies crucial steps, grounded in published scenarios combined with expert judgment. Each step has two parts: actions for rapid near-term emissions reductions, and actions for systemic and long-term impact, creating the basis for the next steps. Such a narrative, specifically designed with decadal targets and incentives, could provide key elements for national and international climate strategies.</p><div class="gmail-section" id="gmail-sec-1" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">2017–2020: No-Brainers</h2><p id="gmail-p-9" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:3.75px 0px 15px;width:699px">Annual emissions from fossil fuels must start falling by 2020. Well-proven (and ideally income-neutral) policy instruments such as carbon tax schemes, cap-and-trade systems, feed-in tariffs, and quota approaches should roll out at wide scale. Even these will be challenging in the emerging global political climate. The European Union emissions-trading scheme requires kick-starting through an appropriate floor price (>$50/metric ton CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>).</p><div class="gmail-figure__head gmail-highwire-figure" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div class="gmail-fig-inline" style="box-sizing:inherit"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6331/1269/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1" title="A global carbon law and roadmap to make Paris goals a reality (Top) A deep decarbonization scenario scientifically consistent with the Paris Agreement (3) and its associated carbon fluxes as computed with a simple carbon cycle and climate model (13). The “carbon law” scenario of halving emissions every decade is marginally more ambitious than the scenario presented. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals will require bending the global curve of CO2 emissions by 2020 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. It furthermore depends on rising anthropogenic carbon sinks, from bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) engineering (yellow) and land use (orange), as well as sustained natural sinks, to stabilize global temperatures. This scenario is broadly consistent with a 75% probability of limiting warming to below 2°C; a median temperature increase of 1.5°C by 2100; estimated peak median temperature increase of 1.7°C; a 50% probability of limiting warming to below 1.5°C by 2100; and CO2 concentrations of 380 ppm in 2100. See supplementary materials (SM). (Bottom left) Nonlinear renewable energy expansion trajectories based on 2005–2015 global trends (13). Keeping the historical doubling times of around 5.5 years constant in the next three decades would yield full decarbonization (blue area) in the entire energy sector by ∼2040, with coal use ending around 2030–2035 and oil use, 2040–2045. Calculations, based on (5), are detailed in SM. (Bottom right) Decadal staircase following a global carbon law of halving emissions every decade, a complementary fall in land-use emissions, plus ramping up CO2 removal technologies." class="gmail-fragment-images gmail-colorbox-load gmail-highwireFiguresMarkupProcessor-processed gmail-cboxElement" rel="gallery-fragment-images-10018697" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><span class="gmail-hw-responsive-img" style="box-sizing:inherit"><img class="gmail-fragment-image gmail-lazyloaded" src="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6331/1269/F1.medium.gif" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 200ms ease 0s; display: block; width: 244.656px;"></span></a></div><div class="gmail-figure__options" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.75rem;color:grey;margin:15px 0px 0px"><ul class="gmail-highwire-figure-links" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:flex"><li class="gmail-0 gmail-first" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-bottom:7.5px;border:0px;line-height:1.4"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6331/1269/F1.large.jpg?download=true" class="gmail-highwire-figure-link gmail-highwire-figure-link-download gmail-link-icon" title="Download Figure1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;display:block;padding:0px 7.5px"><span class="gmail-fa gmail-fa-download" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline-block;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-weight:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:1;font-family:FontAwesome;font-size:inherit"></span> <span class="gmail-title" style="box-sizing:inherit">Download high-res image</span></a></li><li class="gmail-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-bottom:7.5px;border:0px;line-height:1.4"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6331/1269/F1.large.jpg" class="gmail-highwire-figure-link gmail-highwire-figure-link-newtab gmail-link-icon" target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;display:block;padding:0px 7.5px"><span class="gmail-fa gmail-fa-external-link" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline-block;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-weight:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:1;font-family:FontAwesome;font-size:inherit"></span> <span class="gmail-title" style="box-sizing:inherit">Open in new tab</span></a></li><li class="gmail-2 gmail-last" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-bottom:7.5px;border:0px;line-height:1.4"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/highwire/powerpoint/691941" class="gmail-highwire-figure-link gmail-highwire-figure-link-ppt gmail-link-icon" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;display:block;padding:0px 0px 0px 7.5px;border-right:0px"><span class="gmail-fa gmail-fa-download" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline-block;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-weight:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:1;font-family:FontAwesome;font-size:inherit"></span> <span class="gmail-title" style="box-sizing:inherit">Download Powerpoint</span></a></li></ul></div></div><span class="gmail-caption-title" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700">A GLOBAL CARBON LAW AND ROADMAP TO MAKE PARIS GOALS A REALITY</span><p id="gmail-p-10" class="gmail-first-child" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:439.344px">(<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700">TOP</span>) A DEEP DECARBONIZATION SCENARIO SCIENTIFICALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PARIS AGREEMENT (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-3-3" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-3" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">3</em></a>) AND ITS ASSOCIATED CARBON FLUXES AS COMPUTED WITH A SIMPLE CARBON CYCLE AND CLIMATE MODEL (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-13-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-13" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">13</em></a>). THE “CARBON LAW” SCENARIO OF HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE IS MARGINALLY MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE SCENARIO PRESENTED. MEETING THE PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS WILL REQUIRE BENDING THE GLOBAL CURVE OF CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:8.25px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> EMISSIONS BY 2020 AND REACHING NET-ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050. IT FURTHERMORE DEPENDS ON RISING ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON SINKS, FROM BIOENERGY CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (BECCS) ENGINEERING (YELLOW) AND LAND USE (ORANGE), AS WELL AS SUSTAINED NATURAL SINKS, TO STABILIZE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES. THIS SCENARIO IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH A 75% PROBABILITY OF LIMITING WARMING TO BELOW 2°C; A MEDIAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.5°C BY 2100; ESTIMATED PEAK MEDIAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.7°C; A 50% PROBABILITY OF LIMITING WARMING TO BELOW 1.5°C BY 2100; AND CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:8.25px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> CONCENTRATIONS OF 380 PPM IN 2100. SEE SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS (SM). (<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:8.25px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">BOTTOM LEFT</span>) NONLINEAR RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANSION TRAJECTORIES BASED ON 2005–2015 GLOBAL TRENDS (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-13-2" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-13" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">13</em></a>). KEEPING THE HISTORICAL DOUBLING TIMES OF AROUND 5.5 YEARS CONSTANT IN THE NEXT THREE DECADES WOULD YIELD FULL DECARBONIZATION (BLUE AREA) IN THE ENTIRE ENERGY SECTOR BY ∼2040, WITH COAL USE ENDING AROUND 2030–2035 AND OIL USE, 2040–2045. CALCULATIONS, BASED ON (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-5-2" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">5</em></a>), ARE DETAILED IN SM. (<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700">BOTTOM RIGHT</span>) DECADAL STAIRCASE FOLLOWING A GLOBAL CARBON LAW OF HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE, A COMPLEMENTARY FALL IN LAND-USE EMISSIONS, PLUS RAMPING UP CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:8.25px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>REMOVAL TECHNOLOGIES.</p><q class="gmail-attrib" id="gmail-attrib-2" style="box-sizing:inherit;quotes:none;color:rgb(77,77,77);font-size:0.625rem;margin:0px">GRAPHIC: N. CARY/<em style="box-sizing:inherit">SCIENCE</em></q><div class="gmail-sb-div gmail-caption-clear" style="box-sizing:inherit;clear:both"></div><p id="gmail-p-11" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) should transform into a vanguard forum where nations, businesses, nongovernmental organizations, and scientific communities meet to refine the roadmap. It is evident that the current national commitments under the Paris Agreement must be strongly enhanced at the first ratcheting-up cycle in 2018 to 2020.</p><p id="gmail-p-12" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">Fossil-fuel subsidies, currently $500 billion to $600 billion per annum, must be eliminated by 2020, not 2025 as agreed by the Group of Seven (G7) nations in 2016. An immediate moratorium on investment in new unabated coal-based energy would minimize future stranded assets. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) output must continue to decrease over the coming years, through aggressive funding of renewables, by abandoning coal expansion, and by closing mines. The richer coal-intensive countries must spearhead the coal exit, and countries like India and Indonesia must follow suit.</p><p id="gmail-p-13" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">By 2020, all cities and major corporations in the industrialized world should have decarbonization strategies in place. The 49 countries already committed to be carbon neutral by 2050 should have expanded to >100 countries by that time, and implementation should be under way. The gravest risk is that emerging economies, such as South Africa, are driven down the conventional growth path by sheer inertia. International efforts must incentivize low-carbon development as a priority.</p><p id="gmail-p-14" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px">Food production contributes to >10% of global GHG emissions (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-4-2" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-4" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">4</em></a>) and weakens natural carbon sinks yet has vast potential for biological carbon removal. Innovative financial mechanisms are needed to incentivize carbon management in the food system. Agro-industries, farms, and civil society should develop a worldwide strategy for sustainable food systems to drive healthier, low-meat diets (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-7-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-7" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">7</em></a>) and reduce food waste (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-8-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-8" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">8</em></a>). Health and sustainability cobenefits—such as obesity and disease abatement, pollution reduction, and ecosystems preservation—should spur action.</p></div><div class="gmail-section" id="gmail-sec-2" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">2020–2030: Herculean Efforts</h2><p id="gmail-p-15" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:3.75px 0px 15px;width:699px">Economies must implement the no-brainer mitigation measures plus the first wave of smart and disruptive action. Improving energy efficiency alone would reduce emissions 40 to 50% by around 2030 in many domestic and industrial cases (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-9-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-9" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">9</em></a>).</p><p id="gmail-p-16" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">In the 2020s, carbon pricing across the world must expand to cover all GHG emissions, starting at $50 per metric ton at least and exceeding $400 per ton by mid-century. By the end of that decade, coal will be about to exit the global energy mix, cities like Copenhagen and Hamburg will be fossil-fuel free, and cap-and-trade regimes should be firmly established across national and regional economic zones along with adequate carbon taxes on air transport and shipping. Countries should follow Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands and announce the phase-out of internal combustion engines in new cars by 2030 at the latest. Decarbonizing long-distance transport will be key, through renewable fuels, electrification, and replacing shorter-haul air traffic by rapid rail. These commitments will signal that the conventional model of reinvesting fossil-fuel revenues into exploration is obsolete.</p><p id="gmail-p-17" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">Public and private investment in research and development (R&D) for climate solutions should increase by an order of magnitude between now and 2030. Substantial resources must be directed toward more efficient modes of industrial production; battery-life extension and improved energy storage solutions; schemes that greatly reduce the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) within 10 years; alternative aircraft propulsion systems; super-smart power grids; and sustainable urbanization everywhere.</p><p id="gmail-p-18" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px">We need urgent research to ascertain the resilience of remaining biosphere carbon sinks (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-10-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-10" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">10</em></a>). Strong financial impetus must be provided for afforestation of degraded land and for establishment of no-regret approaches to net removal of CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> from the atmosphere—such as the combination of second- and third-generation bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) or direct air CCS (DACCS). Trials of sustainable sequestration schemes of the order of 100 to 500 MtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>/year should be well under way to resolve deployment issues relating to food security, biodiversity preservation, indigenous rights, and societal acceptance.</p></div><div class="gmail-section" id="gmail-sec-3" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">2030–2040: Many Breakthroughs</h2><p id="gmail-p-19" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:3.75px 0px 15px;width:699px">By 2040, oil will be about to exit the global energy mix. Several vanguard countries (such as Norway, Denmark, and Sweden) should have completed electrification of all sectors and be entirely emissions-free or close to it. Internal combustion engines for personal transport will have become rare on roads worldwide. Aircraft fuel should be entirely carbon neutral. Synthesized fuels, bio-methane, and hydrogen are established alternatives.</p><p id="gmail-p-20" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">After 2030, all building construction must be carbon-neutral or carbon-negative. The construction industry must either use emissions-free concrete and steel or replace those materials with zero- or negative-emissions substances such as wood, stone, and carbon fiber.</p><p id="gmail-p-21" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">BECCS schemes totaling 1 to 2 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>/year would roll out, and R&D should focus on doubling the annual rate of CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> removal. We can expect that polycentric power grids using supraconductive cables will start supplying energy in developing countries, and radical new energy generation solutions will enter the market.</p><p id="gmail-p-22" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px">Promising financial mechanisms to foster investments in necessary breakthroughs include sovereign wealth funds designed for transformation; effective international corporation tax regimes (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-11-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-11" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">11</em></a>); and inheritance reforms that account for historical wealth generated by fossil fuels without compensation of externalities (<a id="gmail-xref-ref-12-1" class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#ref-12" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700"><em style="box-sizing:inherit">12</em></a>).</p></div><div class="gmail-section" id="gmail-sec-4" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">2040–2050: Revise, Reinforce</h2><p id="gmail-p-23" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:3.75px 0px 15px;width:699px">Building on successes and learning from failures of previous stages, certain mitigation strategies will be abandoned and others refined and amplified. All major European countries become close to net-zero carbon states early in the 2040s; market dynamics push North and South America and most of Asia and Africa to this goal by the end of the decade. Natural gas still provides some backup energy, but CCS ensures its carbon footprint is limited. Modular nuclear reactors may contribute to the energy mix in places.</p><p id="gmail-p-24" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px">By 2050, the world will have reached netzero CO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span> emissions, with a global economy powered by carbon-free energy and fed from carbon-sequestering sustainable agriculture. Meanwhile, BECCS schemes have been scaled up and draw down >5 GtCO<span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-size:12px;line-height:0;vertical-align:baseline">2</span>/year. Alternatively, concerns may rule out such scale-up. Only deep emission reductions during 2020–2030 can enable BECCS to be scaled back or abandoned, while efforts to increase energy efficiency and DACCS continue.</p></div><div class="gmail-section" id="gmail-sec-5" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">Stability and Resilience</h2><p id="gmail-p-25" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:3.75px 0px 15px;width:699px">We cannot predict where civilization will be mid-century, but a decadal staircase based on a carbon law, if adopted broadly, may provide essential economic boundary conditions to make a zero-emissions future an inevitability rather than wishful thinking. The very nature of disruptive progress requires revising the narrative of a detailed roadmap every 2 years, correcting near-term targets to reach the ultimate goal by evolutionary management.</p><p id="gmail-p-26" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px;width:699px">Although signs are positive that the world is on track to rapidly transform to a net-zero–emissions global economy, contagion dynamics cut both ways. If political signals do not support a rapid transition, for example, by a failure to implement worldwide financial and regulatory reform that places a cost on carbon, then it is difficult to imagine keeping warming at “well below 2°C.” However, the scale of momentum toward clean energy in the past decade suggests that it would seem foolish to try to halt the trend, given the growing evidence that decarbonization can be a major progrowth strategy.</p><p id="gmail-p-27" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px">In global governance, climate stabilization must be placed on par with economic development, human rights, democracy, and peace. The design and implementation of the carbon roadmap should therefore take center stage at the UN Security Council, as these quintessential objectives increasingly interact, influencing the stability and resilience of societies and the Earth system.</p></div><div class="gmail-section gmail-app" id="gmail-app-1" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">Supplementary Materials</h2><div id="gmail-DC1" class="gmail-supplementary-material" style="box-sizing:inherit"><p id="gmail-p-30" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px 0px;width:699px"><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269/suppl/DC1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700">www.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269/suppl/DC1</a></p></div></div><div class="gmail-section gmail-ref-list gmail-ally-focus-within" id="gmail-ref-list-1" style="box-sizing:inherit"><h2 class="gmail-" style="box-sizing:inherit;line-height:1.2;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:"Roboto Condensed","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px">References Notes</h2><ol class="gmail-cit-list gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px 0px 0px 2.25rem;padding:0px;list-style-position:initial;font-size:0.875rem"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-1-1" title="View reference 1 in text" id="gmail-ref-1" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.1" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth gmail-cit-collab" style="box-sizing:inherit">UNFCCC</span>, <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Paris Agreement</abbr> (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2015</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=UNFCCC%2C+Paris+Agreement+(2015)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-2-1" title="View reference 2 in text" id="gmail-ref-2" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.2" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">H. J.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Schellnhuber</span></span>, </li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">S.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Rahmstorf</span></span>, </li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">R.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Winkelmann</span></span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">, <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Nat. Clim. Chang.</abbr> <span class="gmail-cit-vol" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:bolder">6</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-fpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">649</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2016</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=%2C+Nat.+Clim.+Chang.+6%2C+649+(2016)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-3-1" title="View reference 3 in text" id="gmail-ref-3" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.3" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">J.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Rogelj</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:italic">et al</span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">., <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Nat. Clim. Chang.</abbr> <span class="gmail-cit-vol" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:bolder">5</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-fpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">519</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2015</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=.%2C+Nat.+Clim.+Chang.+5%2C+519+(2015)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-4-1" title="View reference 4 in text" id="gmail-ref-4" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-book gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.4" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth gmail-cit-collab" style="box-sizing:inherit">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-source" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-right:0.1em;font-style:italic">Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-ed" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">O.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Edenhofer</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit">et al</span>., Eds. (<span class="gmail-cit-publ-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge Univ. Press</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-publ-loc" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2014</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change%2C+Climate+Change+2014%3A+Mitigation+of+Climate+Change%3A+Working+Group+III+Contribution+to+the+Fifth+Assessment+Report+of+the+Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change%2C+O.+Edenhofer+et+al.%2C+Eds.+(Cambridge+Univ.+Press%2C+Cambridge%2C+2014)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-5-1" title="View reference 5 in text" id="gmail-ref-5" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-book gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.5" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">B. P.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Global</span></span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">, <span class="gmail-cit-source" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-right:0.1em;font-style:italic">BP Statistical Review of World Energy</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-publ-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">BP Global</span>, ed. <span class="gmail-cit-edition" style="box-sizing:inherit">65</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2016</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=%2C+BP+Statistical+Review+of+World+Energy+(BP+Global%2C+ed.+65%2C+2016)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-6-1" title="View reference 6 in text" id="gmail-ref-6" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-book gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.6" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">P.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Ciais</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:italic">et al</span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">., in <span class="gmail-cit-source" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-right:0.1em;font-style:italic">Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-ed" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">T. F.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Stocker</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit">et al.</span>, Eds. (<span class="gmail-cit-publ-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge Univ. Press</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-publ-loc" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2013</span>), pp. <span class="gmail-cit-fpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">465</span>–<span class="gmail-cit-lpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">570</span>.</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=.%2C+in+Climate+Change+2013%3A+The+Physical+Science+Basis%3A+Working+Group+I+Contribution+to+the+Fifth+Assessment+Report+of+the+Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change%2C+T.+F.+Stocker+et+al.%2C+Eds.+(Cambridge+Univ.+Press%2C+Cambridge%2C+2013)%2C+pp.+465%E2%80%93570." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-7-1" title="View reference 7 in text" id="gmail-ref-7" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.7" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">K.-H.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Erb</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:italic">et al</span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">., <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Nat. Commun.</abbr> <span class="gmail-cit-vol" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:bolder">7</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-fpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">11382</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2016</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=.%2C+Nat.+Commun.+7%2C+11382+(2016)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-8-1" title="View reference 8 in text" id="gmail-ref-8" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.8" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">C.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Hiç</span></span> <span class="gmail-cit-etal" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:italic">et al</span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">., <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Environ. Sci. Technol.</abbr> 10.1021/acs.est.5b05088 (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2016</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=.%2C+Environ.+Sci.+Technol.+10.1021%2Facs.est.5b05088+(2016)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-9-1" title="View reference 9 in text" id="gmail-ref-9" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-book gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.9" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth gmail-cit-collab" style="box-sizing:inherit">Global Energy Assessment Writing Team</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-source" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-right:0.1em;font-style:italic">Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future</span>(<span class="gmail-cit-publ-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis</span>,<span class="gmail-cit-publ-loc" style="box-sizing:inherit">Laxenburg, Austria</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2012</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=Global+Energy+Assessment+Writing+Team%2C+Global+Energy+Assessment%3A+Toward+a+Sustainable+Future+(Cambridge+Univ.+Press%2C+Cambridge%2C+and+the+International+Institute+for+Applied+Systems+Analysis%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%2C+2012)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-10-1" title="View reference 10 in text" id="gmail-ref-10" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-journal gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.10" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">P.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Williamson</span></span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">, <abbr class="gmail-cit-jnl-abbrev" style="box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted grey;font-style:italic;margin-right:0.1em">Nature</abbr> <span class="gmail-cit-vol" style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:bolder">530</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-fpage" style="box-sizing:inherit">153</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2016</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1038/530153a&link_type=DOI" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-doi gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-crossref" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">CrossRef</span></a><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=26863967&link_type=MED&atom=%2Fsci%2F355%2F6331%2F1269.atom" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-medline" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">PubMed</span></a><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=%2C+Nature+530%2C+153+(2016)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><a class="gmail-rev-xref-ref" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269#xref-ref-11-1" title="View reference 11 in text" id="gmail-ref-11" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);text-decoration-line:none;font-weight:700;border:0px">↵</a><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ref-book gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed" id="gmail-cit-355.6331.1269.11" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><div class="gmail-cit-metadata" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0.5rem;padding-left:18px;padding-right:0px"><ol class="gmail-cit-auth-list" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;list-style:none;display:inline"><li style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;margin-bottom:7.5px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><span class="gmail-cit-auth" style="box-sizing:inherit"><span class="gmail-cit-name-given-names" style="box-sizing:inherit">T.</span> <span class="gmail-cit-name-surname" style="box-sizing:inherit">Piketty</span></span></li></ol><cite style="box-sizing:inherit;font-style:normal;display:inline;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px">, <span class="gmail-cit-source" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-right:0.1em;font-style:italic">Capital in the 21st Century</span> (<span class="gmail-cit-publ-name" style="box-sizing:inherit">Harvard Univ. Press</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-publ-loc" style="box-sizing:inherit">Cambridge, MA</span>, <span class="gmail-cit-pub-date" style="box-sizing:inherit">2013</span>).</cite></div><div class="gmail-cit-extra" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline;font-size:0.75rem;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=%2C+Capital+in+the+21st+Century+(Harvard+Univ.+Press%2C+Cambridge%2C+MA%2C+2013)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"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x;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">CrossRef</span></a><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=article&q_txt=%2C+Atmos.+Chem.+Phys.+11%2C+1417+(2011)." target="_blank" class="gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar gmail-cit-ref-sprinkles-google-scholar" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(55,88,138);margin-left:0px;display:inline-block;font-size:10.56px;margin-right:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;white-space:nowrap"><span style="box-sizing:inherit">Google Scholar</span></a></div></div></li><li class="gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:15px 0px"><div class="gmail-cit gmail-ref-cit gmail-ack gmail-no-rev-xref gmail-google_scholar_link-processed gmail-custom-js-processed gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;display:inline"><span style="box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:700">Acknowledgments: </span>The authors draw on dialogues with Earth League members (<a href="http://www.the-earth-league.org/" class="gmail-ally-focus-within" style="box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:grey;text-decoration-line:none;outline:rgb(0,174,239) solid 1px;font-weight:700">www.the-earth-league.org</a>) on a carbon roadmap. The authors thank J. Falk (Intel IoT Ignition Lab) for discussions on exponential approaches to decarbonization. M.M. was supported by Australian Research Council Future Fellowship grant no. FT130100809.</div></li></ol></div><span class="gmail-highwire-journal-article-marker-end" style="box-sizing:inherit"></span></div><span id="gmail-related-urls" style="box-sizing:inherit"></span></div></div></div></div><div class="gmail-panel-separator" style="box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px"></div><div class="gmail-panel-pane gmail-pane-highwire-article-trendmd" style="box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Roboto,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class="gmail-pane-content" style="box-sizing:inherit;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px"><div id="gmail-trendmd-suggestions" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div class="gmail-trendmd-widget-container gmail-trendmd-widget_title-normal gmail-trendmd-widget_body-normal" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;outline:0px;vertical-align:baseline;background:0px 0px;font:inherit"><div class="gmail-trendmd-widget gmail-trendmd-widget_horizontal" style="box-sizing:inherit;border:0px;outline:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;font-family:Arial,"Helvetica CY","Nimbus Sans L",sans-serif;margin:0px;padding:42px 0px 0px;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div class="gmail-trendmd-widget-inner" style="box-sizing:inherit"><div class="gmail-trendmd-widget-section" style="box-sizing:inherit;width:314.547px;margin:0px;padding:7px 0px 0px;border:0px;float:left"><div class="gmail-trendmd-widget-header" style="box-sizing:inherit;border:0px;outline:0px;vertical-align:baseline;background:0px 0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:14px;line-height:inherit;font-family:inherit;padding:8px 0px 0px 4px"><br class="gmail-Apple-interchange-newline"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Jul 19, 2019 at 7:18 AM Tom Hansen <<a href="mailto:thansen@moscow.com">thansen@moscow.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div>Nope.  No climate change there.</div><div><br></div>Courtesy of CNN at:<div><br></div><div><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/us/heatwave-friday-wxc/index.html" target="_blank">https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/us/heatwave-friday-wxc/index.html</a></div><div><br></div><div>———————————————</div><div><br></div><div><h1 class="gmail-m_-4250875071722826564pg-headline" style="box-sizing:border-box;font-size:4.13333rem;margin:10px 0px;padding:0px;font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-weight:300;line-height:1.06452;color:rgb(38,38,38)">More than 185 million people are under watches and warnings as the heat wave begins to reach peak temperatures</h1></div><div><br></div><div><div>(CNN) - Peak temperatures from a potentially deadly heat wave are expected to begin Friday, and major US cities are taking special measures to prepare -- with New York City declaring an emergency.</div><div><br></div><div>Over the next few days, more than 85% of the lower 48's population will see temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen said, and more than half will see temperatures higher than 95 degrees.</div><div><br></div><div>About 185 million people are under a heat watch, warning or advisory as of Friday morning.</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/storm-tracker/" style="box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(0,101,152);text-decoration:none;font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-size:18px" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:700">Track the extreme heat</span></a></div><div><br></div><div>The heat has the potential to break records and turn deadly as temperatures climb over the weekend all along the East Coast and through the Midwest.</div><div><br></div><div><a href="http://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/heat-wave-july-2019/index.html" style="box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(0,101,152);text-decoration:none;font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-size:18px" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:700">Live updates: Heat wave descends on the US</span></a></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:rgb(38,38,38);font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-size:32px;background-color:rgb(254,254,254)">East Coast</span></div><div><br></div><div>High temperatures are expected to scorch the major cities of the East Coast.</div><div><br></div><div>Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington will be under excessive heat warnings on Friday. Further south, Raleigh is under a heat advisory.</div><div><br></div><div>Mayor Bill de Blasio has declared "a local emergency due to the extreme heat" in New York City. In an executive order that covers 9 a.m. Friday to 11:59 p.m. Sunday, the mayor is ordering office buildings 100 feet or taller to raise thermostats to 78 degrees in an effort to conserve energy. He also encouraged residents to set their thermostats higher to help reduce energy use.</div><div><br></div><div>"We are about to enter a heat emergency, and must do all we can to keep New Yorkers safe," said de Blasio. "The city government is limiting its energy use to reduce strain on the electrical grid, and now private office buildings will also have to do their part."</div><div>With extreme temperatures through Sunday, the Verizon New York City Triathlon has been canceled. The organization says it's not safe for the athletes or the spectators.</div><div><br></div><div>"After exhausting all options to mitigate athlete, volunteer, spectator and staff exposure alike, we are unable to provide either a safe event experience or an alternate race weekend," organizers announced in a press release. "As a result, in collaboration with the City of New York and all supporting agencies, Sunday's triathlon has been canceled."</div><div><br></div><div>Also canceled: Saturday's card of horse racing at New York's Saratoga Race Course, and all races Saturday and Sunday at the Maryland Jockey Club in Laurel -- where the heat index will reach 110 to 115.</div><div><br></div><div>"The health and safety of our horses and jockeys is our highest priority," said Maryland Jockey Club President and General Manager Sal Sinatra.</div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:rgb(38,38,38);font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-size:32px;background-color:rgb(254,254,254)">Midwest</span></div><div><br></div><div>Detroit is taking extra measures to make sure residents can get relief from the sweltering heat that is also expected in the Midwest.</div><div><br></div><div>In addition to cooling centers open on the weekdays, the city will open recreation centers on the weekend to give access to air-conditioning, according to a press release.</div><div><br></div><div>The mayor's office and the Detroit Police Department will also be checking on homeless people to offer them transport to cooling centers this weekend, the release said.</div><div><br></div><div>As cities all over the region -- such as Cleveland, Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha and Detroit -- face heat warnings or advisories, Detroit officials are urging residents to drink plenty of water, reduce outdoor activities, eat light and check on family and neighbors.</div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:rgb(38,38,38);font-family:CNN,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,Utkal,sans-serif;font-size:32px;background-color:rgb(254,254,254)">Heat wave made worse by climate crisis</span></div><div><br></div><div>June of this year was the hottest June on record for the world, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It isn't clear yet how July will fair in terms of breaking records, but temperatures for this week are high.</div><div><br></div><div>Experts say the heat wave is only made worse by the ongoing threat of climate change. According to last year's National Climate Assessment, the number of hot days in the US is increasing.</div><div><br></div><div>Heat waves have also increased in frequency, rising from an average of two per year to six per year in the last five decades. The threat is especially pronounced in the Northeast, where "the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves is expected to increase" due to the climate crisis.</div><div><br></div><div>By 2050, the Northeast can expect approximately 650 more deaths each year because of extreme heat, the assessment found.</div></div><div><br></div><div>———————————————<br><br><div dir="ltr"><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .</span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">"Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)</span></div><div><a href="http://www.moscowcares.com/" style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)" target="_blank"><font color="#000000">http://www.MoscowCares.com</font></a></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">  </span></div><div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Tom Hansen</span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Moscow, Idaho</span></div></div><div><br></div></div></div></div><br></blockquote></div></div>