[Vision2020] 6-11-18 Realclimate.org: Will climate change bring benefits from reduced cold-related mortality?

[Ted Moffett]

Full article at website below:
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
Will climate change bring benefits from reduced cold-related mortality?
Insights from the latest epidemiological research
— stefan @ 11 June 2018

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/will-climate-change-bring-benefits-from-reduced-cold-related-mortality-insights-from-the-latest-epidemiological-research/#more-21466

*G**uest post by Veronika Huber*

*Climate skeptics sometimes like to claim that although global warming will
lead to more deaths from heat, it will overall save lives due to fewer
deaths from cold. But is this true? Epidemiological studies suggest the
opposite.*

Mortality statistics generally show a distinct seasonality. More people die
in the colder winter months than in the warmer summer months. In European
countries, for example, the difference between the average number of deaths
in winter (December – March) and in the remaining months of the year is 10%
to 30% <http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784>. Only a proportion of these
winter excess deaths are directly related to low ambient temperatures
(rather than other seasonal factors). Yet, it is reasonable to suspect that
fewer people will die from cold as winters are getting milder with climate
change. On the other hand, excess mortality from heat may also be high,
with, for example, up to 70,000 additional deaths
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631069107003770?via%3Dihub>
attributed to the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe. So, will the expected
reduction in cold-related mortality be large enough to compensate for the
equally anticipated increase in heat-related mortality under climate change?
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