[Vision2020] Bluntly Put, This is BS! Re: Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño

Thu Feb 9 22:29:53 PST 2017

The Vision2020 police are on my case... Four posts in one day!

I know nothing about the views of the person named "Art Douglas" in the
Spokesman Review article on Inland Northwest climate, beyond what is in the
article, nor is the issue of anthropogenic global warming in discussion in
the article, or my critical responses. Maybe the journalist misquoted him,
for all I know.

"BS" as slang does not necessarily mean "deceit."  It can merely mean
"nonsense" according to http://www.dictionary.com/browse/bullshit
noun 1. nonsense, lies, or exaggeration.

ENSO is a coupled ocean atmospheric circulation model, quite natural.
Discussion of this powerful global climate/weather pattern often occurs
with no reference to human induced global warming.,

You are correct to imply, it seems, that only referencing one source on
weather or climate is not the best approach to reaching the likely truth,
though why it is "worship" to reference the US Climate Prediction Center
requires explanation.  I also have no clue as to what "conspiracy" is
involved.

Anyway, here is another source:  As you can read at the *Japan
Meteorological Agency *website below, they roughly agree with the US
Climate Prediction Center, that *ENSO neutral conditions (NOT an El Nino) *are
likely to persist till "boreal spring," as they phrased it.  The chart
below shows SST prediction range through April 2017 with ocean SST not
increasing to an El Nino event level.

If I am interpreting incorrectly, one of Vision2020's academic geniuses
please offer correction.

By the way, the JMA is often overlooked in discussion of long term global
instrumental temperature record data, oddly, given their record is
credible

Their website indicates Feb. 10 they will update their predictions, so this
could change.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

- "It is likely that La Niña conditions will decay, and then ENSO neutral
conditions will persist until boreal spring (70%)".
- -----------------------------------------
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig1
El Niño Outlook
------------------------------

*Fig.1* Five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 predicted
by JMA's El Niño prediction model (JMA/MRI-CGCM2)
<http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/cps2_description.html>.

Red dots indicate observed values, and boxes indicate predictions. Each box
denotes the range where the value will be included with the probability of
70%.
---------------------------------------
But given you mentioned AGW, there are scientific predictions that
anthropogenic global warming will impact ENSO. sometimes called "ENSO
intensification."  El Nino could become more powerful, given the
incontrovertible fact that anthropogenic global warming is increasing ocean
temperatures, and that El Nino involves the impacts of a warm eastern
Pacific on climate.

ENSO tipping point discussed below, from the "Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences:"
---------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other
regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

There are large uncertainties associated with tipping points, which are
often considered as examples of “surprises.” Ramanathan and Feng (9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>) estimate the
likelihood of reaching the predicted critical temperature threshold that
triggers various tipping elements by considering the probability
distribution for the temperature increase associated with the “committed”
level of warming, which these authors report to be 2.4 °C (1.4–4.3 °C).
This is the estimated average surface temperature increase above
preindustrial values that would take place if the concentrations of GHGs
were held constant at their 2005 values, but without aerosol forcing, land
surface albedo changes, or any other anthropogenic forcing; that is, the
2.4 °C value is based on past emissions and is comprised of 0.76 °C
observed surface warming plus 1.6 °C additional warming lagged in the
oceans and “masked” by cooling aerosols (9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>). Fig. 1
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#F1> presents their results
for various policy-relevant tipping elements (9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>), most of which
Lenton et al. (8 <http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-8>)
include in their analysis; for elimination of Arctic summer sea ice and
melting of the Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet, the
probability that the committed warming exceeds the tipping point
temperature is estimated to be larger than 50%, and it is estimated to be
>10% for dieback of the Amazon Rainforest, more persistent and higher
amplitude El Niño conditions, reorganization of the North Atlantic
Thermohaline Circulation, and melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The
transition time scales estimated for these tipping elements vary from as
little as 10 years for loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic to 50 years for
Amazon and other forest die-off, to 300 years, at the low end, for melting
of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and 300 years as the worst-case scenario for
the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (8
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-8>, 9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>). Even if the actual
warming is less severe than estimated by Ramanathan and Feng (9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>), the probability
that threshold temperatures will be reached for several of the identified
tipping points is very significant if emission of GHGs continues along the
current path.
[image: Fig. 1.]
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html>
View larger version:

   - In this page
   <http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html>
   - In a new window
   <http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html>

   - Download PPT <http://www.pnas.org/powerpoint/106/49/20616/F1>

Fig. 1.

“Probability distribution for the committed warming by GHGs between 1750
and 2005. … Shown are the tipping elements [large-scale components of the
Earth's system] and the temperature threshold range that initiates the
tipping.…” Reproduced from Ramanathan and Feng (2008) (9
<http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9>).

----------------------------------------------

On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 8:33 PM, g crabtree <direoutcome at gmail.com> wrote:

You do not refer to the remarks Mr. Douglas made at the Spokane Ag Expo as
> somewhat different from your own  current understanding.  Instead you use
> the term BS which suggests deceit. The question that leaps to mind has got
> to be to be to what end? How does predicting to a group of pacific
> northwest farmers "warmer and drier weather starting in March" further the
> anti anthropomorphic global warming crusade? Or, are you simply speaking up
> in defense of the all knowing and all powerful NOAA, blessed be it's name.
> The first suggests conspiracy and the second hints at worship. Your
> previous posts considered, either or both seem plausible. Am I overlooking
> a third?
>
> g
>
> On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 6:34 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> quoted:
>>
>> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>>
>> "An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru
>> and is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March,
>> Douglas said."
>> -----------------------------------------
>> Oh really?
>>
>> I just checked ENSO diagostic from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center,
>> dated 2-6-17, and they do not currently predict what the quote above
>> indicates regarding El Nino.
>>
>> Someone correct me if I am wrong!
>>
>> Only a 35% percent chance of El Nino developing is predicted, and not
>> until August through October, as you can read below.
>>
>> I suppose it is possible that in a mere two days some dramatic shift
>> happened in the eastern Pacific ocean, but I doubt it.
>>
>> Why not go to the most credible source on ENSO (El Nino Southern
>> Oscilation) for current status and predictions of US Northwest weather?
>>
>> At the website below the following prediction is given, pasted in below,
>> which can be read by scanning way down the pdf:
>>
>> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/la
>> nina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>>
>> ENSO: Recent Evolution,
>> Current Status and Predictions
>> Update prepared by:
>> Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
>> 6 February 2017
>>
>> "ENSO -neutral is favored through mid-2017, with smaller chances of El
>> Nino (35%) and La Nina (15%)
>> by August- September-October (ASO) 2017."
>> ---------------------------------------
>> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 8, 2017 at 4:31 AM, Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.
>>>
>>> ---------------------------------
>>> Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño
>>>
>>> A weather expert who has handed down predictions at the Spokane Ag Expo
>>> for three decades says the Inland Northwest can expect a summer that’s
>>> hotter and drier than normal.
>>>
>>> An emerging El Nino will warm things up and dry them out in coming
>>> months, a meteorology expert told farmers Tuesday in Spokane.
>>>
>>> Art Douglas, an emeritus professor of meteorology at Creighton
>>> University, was the keynote speaker at the opening session of the 40th
>>> annual Spokane Ag Expo at the Convention Center. The expo, in conjunction
>>> with the annual Pacific Northwest Farm Forum, runs through Thursday.
>>>
>>> Douglas told farmers and agriculture industry workers that when
>>> temperatures warm, then cool and now warm again in the tropical Pacific, it
>>> has a strong effect on current weather and the weather expected when spring
>>> arrives and turns to summer harvest.
>>>
>>> “Storms are going to have a much harder time getting into the
>>> Northwest,” said Douglas, who taught weather at Creighton University and
>>> now is a consultant.
>>>
>>> An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru
>>> and is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March,
>>> Douglas said.
>>>
>>> An El Nino warming of the tropics from 2014 to early 2016 led to a major
>>> drought along the West Coast in 2015 and 2016. It also sent warmer water
>>> into the eastern Pacific as far north as Alaska, which has been an
>>> ingredient in storm formation since October.
>>>
>>> The La Nina cooling of the tropics that began last fall energized the
>>> storm track over California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho and Washington since
>>> October. Those storms were fueled in part by the large area of warmer water
>>> off the coast that was the remnant of the previous El Nino, Douglas said.
>>>
>>> El Nino takes its name from the development of warmer water along the
>>> coast of Peru around Christmas and the celebration of “the little boy.”
>>>
>>> As for crop production, Douglas said Pacific Northwest grain crops
>>> should be in good shape with ample soil moisture available and some spring
>>> storms to help keep the ground moist.
>>>
>>> A hot and dry summer is good for harvesting mature grain crops but also
>>> could cause more difficult growing conditions looking ahead to planting
>>> winter wheat next fall.
>>>
>>> In contrast, the grain belt of the central U.S. should see lots of
>>> spring rain and probably violent storms, Douglas said. Crops there should
>>> be bountiful as the coming storms make up for a moisture deficit, he said.
>>>
>>> Elsewhere around the world, Australia and the Black Sea growing areas
>>> have been dry and crops may suffer. China and northern India stand good
>>> chances for bountiful crops, he said, adding that he sees a mixed bag for
>>> South America.
>>> ---------------------------------
>>>
>>> Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .
>>>
>>> "Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)
>>> http://www.MoscowCares.com <http://www.moscowcares.com/>
>>>
>>> Tom Hansen
>>> Moscow, Idaho
>>>
>>>
>>>
>
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